It is safe to say that many Atlanta Braves fans hope that Dansby Swanson will be in a Braves uniform in 2023. However, there is at least a possibility that this may happen. What will be the Braves’ contingency plan if a deal does not get done?
Dansby Swanson, although cooled off as of late, is easily having his best season as an MLB player for the Atlanta Braves. He currently has a slash line of .279/.331/.441, which equates to an OPS+ of 114 (14 percent above league average). Other than his 111 OPS+ in the shortened 2020 season, he has never had an OPS+ higher than 99 in a full season.
He currently holds a 4.4 offensive Wins Above Replacement (oWAR), and a 1.8 defensive WAR (dWAR), both of which are the best of his career. His overall WAR so far is 5.2, when his best ever in a season has been 2.8.
Needless to say, Dansby Swanson is setting himself up for a nice payday. Swanson is currently making 10 million, and will most assuredly be getting a raise. The biggest question mark is if the Atlanta Braves and Dansby Swanson are close enough in contract negations that they can make it work.
Who could be the SS for the Atlanta Braves if Swanson does not return?
We have seen in the past, even if odds seem to weigh heavily for a player to return, it does not always happen.
With this being said, what route could the Atlanta Braves take should Swanson be in a new uniform come 2023?
Many fans could possibly just make the assumption that Grissom could be the heir apparent to the most difficult position in the infield. After all, he was drafted as a shortstop, and played there in high school and through his limited time in the minors.
Grissom has been impressive. After only 22 games at AA, he was promoted to the MLB roster and has held his own with a slash line of .290/.351/.435. He may come down to earth some with a BABIP of .347, but his OPS+ has still been 19 percent above league average.
The issue here is that even though he was drafted as a SS, he was never viewed as a SS long term. Even as a prospect, his fielding rating was a 45 (according to MLB.com), and was viewed more as a 3rd baseman long term.
Ideally, Grissom would be a super utility type for the Braves, much like Ben Zobrist or Chris Taylor, where he plays every day, but not in a specific position.
Either way, the Braves could possibly go this route in 2023 if Swanson leaves and give it a shot at least in the short term, but odds are he would not be the long term full time SS.
Other than Grissom, the options are bleak
In 2023, even if the Braves don’t re-sign Dansby Swanson, the projected tax payroll (payroll that counts towards the luxury tax threshold) without him and without adding other free agents already sits at approximately $152,920,802 according to Spotrac.
The Atlanta Braves have never surpassed the luxury tax threshold, which will be $233 million in 2023, so odds are that they will not do it next year.
With that being said, if Dansby leaves, there is more than just the SS position to fill. They could be looking to add a starting pitcher, bullpen, and possibly other spots. What this in mind, they probably will not be going after the top 3 shortstops on the market in Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Carlos Correa.
If Bogaerts is available, it will be because he opts out of the remaining 3 years and $60 million on his contract. Already, we can see it would be a massive increase in the salary allocated to the SS position for the Braves. This is not to say Bogaerts is not worth the money, rather that it would hinder the Braves from making other moves tremendously.
The same can be said for Correa, who would be opting out of 2 years and $70.2 million. Clearly, what Correa would be seeking would hinder the Braves as well.
Trea Turner is arguably the best overall SS in MLB, and will be seeking to be paid like it. We can expect him to be making at least the type of money as the previously 2 mentioned shortstops.
Could the Braves swing for the fences for one of these 3? It is possible. It just does not fit the mold of their current front office.
So, who is left that could play SS for the Atlanta Braves?
Other than Tim Anderson, who has a club option which will most likely be picked up, this leaves stop gap style shortstops.
Elvis Andrus, Aledmys Diaz, Marwin Gonzalez, Didi Gregorius, Alcides Escobar, Jose Iglesias, Andrelton Simmons, and Jonathan Villar are the remaining free agent options available.
None of these names spark excitement. Some of the players have had solid careers, but those days of playing as a reliable above average MLB player are seemingly over.
None of these players seem to be a big enough upgrade over Orlando Arcia, who is already on the roster for 2023, to sign as someone to start over him should it come down to it.
Prior to his limited time in 2022, Arcia had never been an above average offensive player. His highest OPS+ prior to 2022 was 95 in the shortened 2020 season. However, Arcia has been solid offensively with a 102 OPS+ for the Braves this year in his 59 games. Arcia has played 534 of his 608 career games at shortstop.
It appears that if the Braves do not re-sign or extend Dansby Swanson, their options are:
- Let Grissom play SS, and see if he can handle the position, and if he cannot, let Arcia take over defensively
- Have Grissom play a super utility role with Arcia getting the share at shortstop
- Sign a stop gap shortstop for cheap and let them battle it out with Arcia for the lion’s share of innings
As much fun as it may seem to imagine Trea Turner or another top tier shortstop in a Braves uniform, the odds are extremely slim. With that being said, Dansby Swanson coming back seems to be the best option going forward if the contract is right, even taking out the variable of being a fan favorite.