The Atlanta Braves aren’t eliminated yet, but in practical terms they’ve been a Wildcard team since Tuesday and are now adjusting their strategy to reflect that reality.
The Atlanta Braves placed Spencer Strider on the IL with an oblique strain this morning, backdated to September 21st. While I know the club wouldn’t game the system, it’s convenient that the Rookie of the Year candidate will return well rested in time to start one of the Wildcard games.
It’s also a sign that they accept the Braves are a Wildcard team even though they aren’t yet formally eliminated. The math says they have a chance, but the probability of the stars aligning to make it happen is small; for practical purposes, the race was over Tuesday.
After Tuesday’s games, the Atlanta Braves were 93-55 with 14 games left to play, two games behind the 95-55 Mets, who had 12 games remaining. The margin now stands at 2.5 GB.
The Mets were playing .631 ball in September, almost exactly the same pace as they had all season, giving them a projected season-ending record of 102-60. Even playing .500 ball, the Mets would finish 101-61.
Atlanta Braves bats go silent.
The Braves played at a .731 clip, an unsustainable 110 points higher than their .628 W/L% on the season. Finishing in a tie would do the Braves no good, unless they happen to sweep next weekend’s head-to-head series..
Failing that, the Atlanta Braves need to finish the season one game up on the Mets by winning either nine (.642 W/L%) or ten (.714 W/L%) of the next 14 games. A look at the way the lineup was producing over the two weeks leading up to Tuesday made believing either of those scenarios would play out highly unlikely.
Ronald Acuna Jr. wasn’t playing at the top of his game and hasn’t played in the past couple of games. Matt Olson, Vaughn Grissom, and Austin Riley literally weren’t hitting their weight. (Data from Fangraphs)
| Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Grossman | .323 | .382 | .677 | 1.060 | .292 | .447 | 190 |
| d’Arnaud | .344 | .400 | .594 | .994 | .346 | .427 | 176 |
| Harris II | .295 | .311 | .568 | .879 | .313 | .375 | 140 |
| Swanson | .245 | .288 | .490 | .778 | .229 | .335 | 113 |
| Acuna Jr. | .224 | .269 | .429 | .698 | .257 | .302 | 91 |
| Grissom | .207 | .303 | .310 | .613 | .238 | .282 | 77 |
| Riley | .152 | .235 | .304 | .540 | .167 | .243 | 51 |
| Olson | .109 | .163 | .130 | .294 | .172 | .141 | -19 |
Riley’s shown signs of life since then, but Olson is still lost at the plate, and it’s also affecting his defense.
This wasn’t a secret.
Despite what the Atlanta Braves say publicly, they know how everyone is playing and can do the math. We see the result in some of the front office and managerial decisions made since then, like:
- Giving Tyler Matzek innings in Friday’s game suggests they are trying to get him back on track.
- Using Chavez in what many saw as a winnable game
- Playing Olson, so he gets more ABs against major League pitching
- Bryce Elder’s start against the Nats
- Acuna Jr. and Olson sitting out today.
That’s a Wrap
The Atlanta Braves waited too long to come back and wrest the division title in the last month. The Mets aren’t the inept, doomed-to-collapse team of the last decade and a half; Buck Showalter won’t allow disagreements about rats in the tunnel or players to give less than their best every day.
The Atlanta Braves will either play the Padres or this morning’s leaders, the Phillies, at Truist Park in 13 days. Winning more games is always good, but getting everyone healthy and back on track is the team’s priority until then.