Three Braves with the Most to Prove in the Postseason
The Braves have clinched their 5th straight postseason. Though the team comes in with less to prove than years before, a few players on the roster have quite a bit riding on their performance in October.
The postseason has always been a time to showcase talent to the world. Unlike the regular season where only a few games are nationally televised, playing in the postseason means all eyes are on you.
This can either be quite advantageous for a player or detrimental to them. The attention can lead to stardom for some, while disappointing play can hurt a player’s reputation or create narratives surrounding the player due to the advanced scrutiny.
Thanks to Alex Anthopoulos, most of the Atlanta Braves‘ roster does not have to worry about their future on the team, which makes it easier to play stress-free in the postseason.
Almost the entirety of the Braves’ young core is signed with the team for the foreseeable future. There still remains a few key players who still have plenty to prove in the postseason ahead of the off-season.
One important thing to consider when looking at the Braves long-term outlook is that they will probably be in the playoffs every year for the next 5 years… or at least they have the talent to do so. This means having good playoff performers becomes far more important for the Braves.
Atlanta’s goal is not just to make the playoffs every year. With the roster they have — and will continue to have — their goal should be to make the NLCS or World Series every year.
Although the Braves are a very young team, having experience from veterans — particularly those with postseason experience — becomes very important. That is all negated if the veteran is not performing in the postseason though.
All three players on this list either are not only veterans with plenty of postseason experience, but are also either free agents after this year or have club options, meaning their futures with the Braves are uncertain.
While the idea of playing for the future of your job while in the postseason may sound like a daunting task, all of these players have displayed plenty of postseason success before.
Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson’s impact in the 2022 season has been undeniably great. There is zero doubt that the Braves would not even be close to the position they are in now, threatening a 100-win season, without the 5.8 fWAR player.
It’s hard to imagine that a player who was an all-star this year and is 3rd in outs above average really has anything to prove, but Dansby’s past few seasons raise a sea of questions about the legitimacy of his 2022 and the ability to reproduce this production for years to come.
One of the largest debates surrounding the Braves this season has been Swanson’s contract extension talks. With the extensive work the Braves’ front-office has done to secure the core of players for many years, many wonder when the Braves’ shortstop will receive (or accept) his extension.
While many believe that Dansby is a key part of this team and should be the starting shortstop in 2023 no matter what, there are plenty of people that believe over-paying Dansby — a possibility based on the bar some of the other free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and possibly Carlos Correa) could set for the market — would be a grave mistake.
Many have estimated that Dansby could be in the market for around 20 million dollars a year or even more, a hefty price for any player.
AA has shown he is not going to overpay for a player no matter their significance to the team. While I would be shocked if Dansby walks, there is always a possibility AA could decide the price Dansby is asking for is too high and move on, which becomes easier with the emergence of Vaughn Grissom who is a natural shortstop.
Overpaying could be an issue for the Braves, who though they have done a great job extending many players, still have a few more to extend, like Max Fried.
Though this debate serves the purpose of evaluating whether Dansby’s 2022 season has been enough to justify an expensive contract extension, a great 2022 postseason could negate all of that and force the Braves to shell out the money Dansby is asking for, no matter how high it may seem.
One other interesting thing to note is that Dansby has the same agent that Freddie Freeman had, which could play a part in contract talks.
Dansby has become a leader for the Braves and his impact would be surely missed if he walked in the off-season, but he might need a big postseason to prove he is worth the money.
Kenley Jansen
Only 5 years ago, there was no doubt about who the best reliever in baseball was. In 2017, Kenley Jansen posted a 1.32 ERA and 41 saves, one of the most dominant relief seasons we have seen.
Since 2017, questions began to arise as to whether Kenley Jansen is still at the same level, or even elite anymore. The fact is, he is no longer the best reliever/closer in baseball. He lost that title years ago.
Since joining the Braves, however, many have questioned whether he even deserves to be closing out games in Atlanta. He has a 3.63 ERA and 36 saves in the 2022 season, though his 7 blown saves have been a cause for concern for many Braves fans.
He has shown signs that his age is beginning to get to him.
His velocity is not what it once was. His fastball velocity is 2 miles per hour slower on average this year than it was in 2016, which is quite a substantial drop. He has been able to make up for the loss of velocity with his ability to hit spots.
While he has been accurate enough to get by, his walk rate has increased by 6% since his stellar 2017 season, indicating even his accuracy is going by the wayside.
I am under the personal belief that Jansen, like many other closers, often catch way too much flack. I often believe fans will blindly blame the closer and not look into whether they are really to blame.
The expectation for closers is that they have to be perfect always, and with the Braves down to some of their most crucial games of the year, that expectation only increases for Kenley.
With all that being said, Jansen has definitely shown signs of regression, which may be troubling for many Braves’ fans.
October coming up gives Jansen a great opportunity to prove his value to a team during the postseason. A great postseason performance could extend Jansen’s years with the Braves or with another team looking for a big righty out of the bullpen.
Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton was the Braves’ game 1 starting pitcher in the World Series just last year. That’s how important he was to the pitching staff last year.
This year he has dropped on the pecking order, thanks to the emergence of Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright, but also because Charlie is not having nearly as good of a season as he did last year.
It is possible he is just having somewhat of a down year, but he is 38 and will turn 39 right after the World Series ends. You have to wonder if his age is finally catching up with him.
He has shown flashes of the 2021 pitcher that the Braves relied on to open the World Series, namely a handful of starts where he threw 7 innings. However, his consistency has waned significantly, leading to the 4.09 ERA he has over the 2022 season, which is over .7 ERA points above his 3.34 ERA last season.
One concerning stat for Morton this year is his number of quality starts in 2022 versus 2021. In 2021 Morton had an incredible 19 quality starts. He has only 9 quality starts in 2022, another indicator that he might be losing his juice.
Morton’s velocity is still pretty consistent with what it has been last year, a good indicator for a pitcher of his age. His effectiveness against batters has experienced a bit of a downtick.
Morton is by no means having a bad season, but it’s closer to average than good, which is a concern for a pitcher pushing 40.
With the young starting pitching talent the Braves have such as Bryce Elder and Kyle Muller, the incentive to keep Morton as opposed to one of their young prospects decreases.
This is why a strong postseason performance from Morton could prove to both fans of the team but also the coaching staff that Father Time has not caught up with Charlie just yet.
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Morton looked great in the playoffs last year for the Braves. If he can continue that great performance into this postseason, he can prove he has plenty left in the tank.