Should the Braves swap Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II in the lineup?

Ronald Acuña is better at making contact

One of the important functions for a leadoff hitter is to not strikeout and be able to extend an at-bat past the typical amount of pitches seen. Having a pitcher throw 8+ pitches to the lead-off hitter not only fatigues the starter early in the game but could potentially shave off a whole inning off that pitcher’s outing as well.

One of the best examples of this I have seen in 2022 is Mets centerfielder and leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo, who always seems to make Spencer Strider throw 10+ pitches in his first at-bat.

The key to extending at-bats is being able to identify strikes and be able to foul those off, while not chasing anything out of the zone. Unfortunately for Michael Harris, that is probably the weakest part of his hitting.

Michael Harris’ O-swing % (percentage of pitches a batter swings at that are out of the zone) in 2022 sits at 42.9%. That is a sharp contrast to Ronald’s O-swing %, which sits at a much lower 27.7%.

Their chase rates tell the same story. Harris has a 40% chase rate, while Acuña’s chase rate is only 23.8%.

It is clear Acuña has a better eye and does a better job identifying a ball from a strike, preventing him from chasing pitches at the rate that Harris does.

Michaels Harris’s strikeout rate for the 2022 season sits at 24.5%, which gives him the 54th highest strikeout rate for players with a minimum of 350 plate appearances in the 2022 season. Ronald isn’t much better than that, placing 75th on that list with a strikeout rate of 23.4%.

While the strikeout numbers are pretty similar, those numbers combined with the O-swing % and chase rate illustrate Ronald having a better plate discipline, an important part of a lead-off hitter’s job

Ronald Acuña gets on base/walks more

Most people would agree the most important job for a lead-off hitter is to simply get on base. That is one of the areas this season where Ronald Acuña has done a better job than Michael Harris. When looking simply at their on-base percentages, Acuña’s OBP is slightly higher at .357, 5 points higher than Harris’ OBP which is .352.

Once again not a substantial difference between the two, but still noteworthy when considering walk percentages.

Michael Harris’ 4.5% walk percentage is the 15th lowest walk percentage in the league which is low when you factor that he is one of 2 hitters in the bottom 50 in walk percentage with an OBP above .350 (the other is Andres Gimenez). Ronald’s 10.3% walk percentage slots him in at the 59th highest walk percentage in the league.

There is something invaluable about starting off the game with a walk, which is something that Ronald Acuña is more capable of achieving than Michael Harris.

Michael Harris is significantly worse against a starter the first time he faces them as opposed to the 2nd and 3rd

As a game progresses and the Braves lineup faces the starter for the 2nd and 3rd time, Michael Harris hits significantly better.

2nd inning: .209/.244/.326
4th inning: .300/.400/.333
5h inning: .383/.408.830
9th inning: .407/.429/.926
 
His first inning stats are very similar to his 2nd inning stats (.570 OPS), but he has had very limited at-bats in the first inning, so the sample size is not there to make an accurate judgment.

Many see this trend amongst his hitting as an indicator that he is just a very clutch hitter. While that is not wrong and he has exemplified he is a very clutch hitter, there might be a better explanation.

Michael Harris finds far more success in his hitting in the 2nd and 3rd time he faces a starter, while his 1st at bat versus a starter sees a significant fall off in production.

1st at-bat against starter: .195/.239/.310
2nd at-bat against starter: .354/.400/.658
3rd at-bat against starter: .357/.438/.643

A player who struggles in his first at-bat versus a starter is not exactly what you want from your leadoff hitter. That is why Ronald Acuña Jr. has been such a successful leadoff hitter these past few years. He is just as good in his third at-bat versus a starter as he is in his first at-bat, if not better than his first at-bat.

1st at-bat against starter: .297/.347/.451
2nd at-bat against starter: .256/.340/.407
3rd at-bat against starter: .233/.325/.370

Acuña is at his best in his first at-bat of the game, which is something you want out of your leadoff hitter.

Acuña supplies more energy

While this point might seem very trivial to many, I personally believe this is what has made the Braves’ offense so exciting in the past few years.

Though many disagree with how Ronald Acuña plays the game, there is no denying he is having fun and playing with high energy. That is apparent in his play style and celebrations after he does something great, which is quite often.

As many who have played baseball before know, the energy and momentum of your teammates does rub off on you. That is why some teams have incredible late-game comebacks. In baseball, it often only takes one hit to get the offense going because energy and momentum are contagious.

Acuña plays with his heart on his shoulder and that definitely translates to his teammates. When he hits a ball into the outfield and stretches a what-should-be-single into a hard-fought double, he is going to jump up in the air and celebrate, and his team will celebrate with him in the dugout.

Not only does that demoralize the pitcher, but it also gives his teammates the confidence to repeat what he just did.

This is not to say that Harris does not play with any sort of energy because he definitely does, but it is extremely hard to match the sort of heart-on-your-shoulder play that Acuña utilizes.