Atlanta Braves: Way Too Early Relief Pitcher Free Agent Target

The Atlanta Braves are in the heat of a tight division race with the New York Mets, being primed to once again make a deep playoff run. However, it is always fun to look to the future to see what names will be added to the roster in the off-season

Of course, this is a “way too early” look at who the Atlanta Braves could add in the off-season, but the fact remains the same, additions will need to be made. So, just like chess, it is important to look several moves ahead if you want to be successful.

Make no mistake, the Atlanta Braves’ front office has looked to the future to make business decisions they have already made, as well as plan for when they get to the off-season phase of building a future roster.

What positions should the Atlanta Braves target in the off-season?

Fortunately for the Atlanta Braves, their roster is set to be solid for years to come, filled with young controllable talent. However, there are still some minor holes that need to be filled in the off-season.

There are some valuable players that are scheduled to leave in the off-season via free agency: Kenley Jansen, Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall, Jesse Chavez, Luke Jackson, Robbie Grossman and more.

Charlie Morton has an expensive club option that may not be exercise, and Jake Odorizzi has a player option with a buyout that he may not exercise.

As can be seen, there are some areas that will need help. Left field will still have options, but the outfield depth will take a hit. Losing Morton and Odorizzi would take a toll, but Mike Soroka is coming back (although adding a rotation arm is not a bad idea).

Although Jansen has struggled, losing him, Jackson and Chavez should signal that the Atlanta Braves front office will be looking to add at least 1 relief arm at a minimum.

Which relief arm makes sense for the Atlanta Braves?

For the most part, the 2023 free agent class of relievers is a bit underwhelming. There are some big names like Edwin Diaz and Aroldis Chapman, but these two do not make sense for the Braves.

Diaz will be extremely expensive, and the Braves already acquired their expensive closer in Raisel Iglesias. He has not been closing, but that is because, if we are being honest, is because Brian Snitker is old school with labeling a pitcher the closer and sticking with them as the closer, regardless of struggles.

Chapman is coming off of the worst season of his career, so it is not exactly the best time to go after him.

There is one relief arm that sticks among the rest that makes sense for the Atlanta Braves, Adam Ottavino.

In 55 appearances this year, Ottavino has already accumulated 2.0 baseball reference Wins Above Replacement (bWAR), which is excellent for a relief pitcher. For reference, Collin McHugh leads the Braves with 1.6 bWAR.

Ottavino’s surface numbers are excellent this year with a 182 ERA+ (82% better than league average), 3.15 FIP, 1.006 WHIP, and a 4.64 strikeout to walk ratio.

Relief pitcher’s numbers are extremely volatile since they pitch a fraction of the innings a starter does year to year, but Ottavino has been consistent. Since 2012 when he converted to fulltime relief he holds an ERA+ of 138 with 7 of those years being in Colorado.

As far as his underlying metrics, they have been solid too.

According to baseball savant:

·         Avg Exit Velocity – Top 97% in the league

·         HardHit% against – Top 92%

·         Expected ERA against – Top 94%

·         Expected Batting Average against – Top 89%

·         Expected Slugging% against – Top 92%

·         Strikeout rate – Top 87%

Although relief pitcher’s ERA can be volatile, Ottavino’s expected ERA (xERA) has been very good. For his past 5 seasons, his worst xERA was 3.74 in 2020, which was, as we all know, a weird season for rate stats.

Can the Atlanta Braves land Ottavino?

At the end of the day, it comes down to the cost of the contract, and if Ottavino wants to come to Atlanta. Ottavino will be in his age 37 season in 2023 while finishing up a 1 year deal only worth $4 million.

If the Braves want Ottavino, they have enough money coming off the books that they should have no problem signing him, if he is willing to come to Atlanta.