The Atlanta Braves and Dansby Swanson: Ditch or Dance?
Should the Atlanta Braves re-sign Dansby Swanson?
As the Atlanta Braves stare down the final month of regular season play, it’s difficult to ignore Dansby Swanson’s impending free agency. After several years of uneven play, Swanson fully delivered on his substantial potential to become one of the best shortstops in the MLB.
After a dreadful stretch to open the year (Swanson hit .223 through May 16), the six-year veteran authored a massive rebound. He finished May batting .267, then romped through June with a .330 average and a .953 OPS.
Exiting the midweek series against the Rockies, Swanson was hitting .287 with 17 bombs and 16 steals. His 4.7 WAR was second among NL shortstops behind only the Mets $341 million man, Francisco Lindor.
With such impressive numbers, it’s no surprise that Lieutenant Dans is in line to command a nice contract this offseason. Last week, a report came out that the Bravos opened talks with Swanson’s representatives regarding a new deal.
There is little doubt that Swanson will be paid. However, should the Braves be the ones to write the check?
To Ditch?
Should the Braves let Swanson walk? Based on Heyman’s report, they prefer a reunion. But if negotiations stall, there are a couple of reasons the club might move on from the hometown favorite.
1. Track Record
When Swanson first joined the big club, he wasted no time demonstrating the hit tool and defense that caused Arizona to select him 1-1 in the draft. In 38 games, he hit .302 with 11 extra-base hits. The rookie’s .803 OPS led Braves Country to believe Swanson was their next star.
Yet over the next three seasons, Swanson failed to replicate his early success. In 407 games, he batted .240 with a .694 OPS.
He improved dramatically during the 60-game COVID season, hitting .274 with a .809 OPS. Swanson was a key cog of the juggernaut offense that took the Dodgers to the brink in the NLCS.
But last year, his averages decreased across the board. He finished with a .248 average and .760 OPS. However, Swanson also set a career-high (and Braves shortstop record) with 27 long balls.
Overall, only the 60-game COVID season compares to the numbers Swanson is posting this year. Though his power and sublime defense made Swanson a quality starting shortstop last season, it fades in comparison to the offensive force he is this season.
Did Swanson endure a particularly slow development? Or is his career year a flash in pan? The Braves need to figure it out. After all, there is a more colorful factor requiring their attention.
2. Money
Last offseason, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Trevor Story all changed teams in free agency. Added together, their new deals equaled over $710 million. The smallest overall value belonged to Correa’s three-year, $105 million deal.
Good players cost money. Good shortstops cost franchise-shifting money.
According to Spotrac, Swanson’s current market value pegs him to earn around $22 million per year. That would beat the average value of the recent contracts given to Matt Olson and Austin Riley.
Based on Swanson’s age, the duration of the contract would be less than Riley’s — and perhaps Olson’s — so it wouldn’t have the same overall value. However, regardless of contract length, $22 million for each season is a large chunk of change.
Few know the actual number Swanson is asking for, but $22 million would be an expected price tag for a shortstop of his caliber. Swanson’s representatives understand his value, and they’d be remiss to not ask for it in negotiations.
After the extensions of Olson and Riley, is Alex Anthopoulos prepared to give another $20 million plus deal to Atlanta’s infield? Or has Swanson’s All-Star season played himself out of AA’s price range, especially with Vaughn Grissom proving he deserves a spot in the lineup?
The money issue ties into what Anthopoulos and the Braves believe about Swanson’s ’22 season. If they are confident this iteration of Swanson is legit, they may be comfortable handing him a massive deal. If hesitant about his future production, negotiations will be more complicated.
His track record and deserved pay are issues, and the Braves need to consider them before committing to Swanson. But will the benefits of the relationship tempt the Braves to overlook the troubles?
To Dance?
1. Performance
Swanson is one of the best shortstops in the National League. This season, only Trea Turner (and maybe Lindor) is posting better offensive numbers, and Turner’s defensive doesn’t lick Swanson’s cleats.
Though his August was rough offensively (.265 average, .669 OPS), the body of work speaks for itself. This season, Swanson is a stellar offensive shortstop.
What if 2022 is a sign of things to come for Swanson? He’s always possessed the talent. One doesn’t get drafted first overall without possessing substantial skills.
Each full season his offensive numbers have improved. This year was the next step in his progression as a player. And if he continues this trend, Swanson will only be better offensively next season.
Regardless of his offense, Swanson is a gold glove-caliber defensive shortstop. Though the value of defensive metrics is debated, it’s worth pointing out that he ranks ninth in NL defensive WAR.
The only shortstops above him are Cardinals’ gold glover Tommy Edman and Cubs’ defensive ace Nico Hoerner.
The eye test confirms Swanson’s defensive value. Rarely a game is played that doesn’t include Swanson flashing the leather. Though he is no Andrelton Simmons (frankly, who is?), Swanson has proven himself an elite defensive player.
If 2022 is a marker of how Swanson will play for the next few years, the Braves will be hard-pressed to find a better shortstop at the plate or in the field.
2. Leadership
Intangibles are important in baseball. In a 162-game slog, a united locker room impacts the product on the diamond. A unified team starts with good leaders; Swanson undoubtedly is one.
Since his time at Vanderbilt, many have praised Swanson’s makeup as a player and a human being. He’s calm, levelheaded, and a winner. Freddie Freeman‘s departure left Swanson as the Guy in the clubhouse.
He embodies the Braves Way: he plays every day; he honors the uniform; he respects the game. He’s an example of hard work and dedication to Braves players young and old.
Off the field, Swanson doesn’t cause trouble. On the contrary, he’s an upstanding citizen who gives back to the game. He’s a hometown kid. He’s a Brave.
Conclusion
Dansby Swanson is an excellent shortstop who brings more to the club than his slash line at the plate. His track record isn’t great, yet he continues to improve as a player.
Should the Braves attempt to re-sign him? Yes. But Anthopoulos has to weigh the risks of his past with the performance of his present to avoid hurting the Braves future.
Next. Ozzie and Soroka: Perfect Timing?. dark
The Braves want to continue with Dansby Swanson. Will they? Or will his history and the business side of baseball result in another painful divorce?