Why the Atlanta Braves must win the NL East
The confrontation is a month away, but its importance to the Atlanta Braves cannot be overstated.
It’s like seeing a collision before it happens. You see it coming from a mile away and still can’t prevent it. That’s what this 2022 MLB season is coming toward on the weekend of September 30-October 2 when the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets.
It’s probably not overstating things to suggest that the winner of that series will have their playoff hopes enhanced significantly.
Almost all baseball fans want there to be a reward given to the winners of a division. In some respects over the past few years, that’s been a difficult proposition to quantify, particularly given the need for some teams to navigate through a best-of-three series in the playoff’s first round.
This year with the new playoff format, though? The advantage for the division winners – at least the best two division winners – couldn’t be more obvious. We’ll get to that…
The Atlanta Braves have two strikes against them as we’re coming up on the final month of the season:
- They are 2 games in arrears to the Mets in the standings
- They are 2 games in arrears to the Mets in their mutual season series
The first tie-breaker rule in determining seeding among two teams tied at the end of the season is their head-to-head record. For the Braves and Mets, that would also be the last tie-breaker rule involved, since the odd number of games they play will definitively decide who wins.
The Mets hold a 9-7 advantage right now with 3 still to play over that last weekend. Atlanta needs to sweep that series to wrest tie-breaker control from the Mets.
Of course, Atlanta could also win the division outright if they manage to overtake New York in the standings during the 33 other games they have remaining, but the Mets will have something to say about that.
The schedule does lean toward the Mets favor (Atlanta faces St. Louis this weekend, Philly 7 more times, plus face Seattle and the Giants on the West Coast 3 times each; the Mets have Milwaukee and the Dodgers for their toughest other foes), but it’s certainly possible.
But here’s why winning the division is so vital: it’s about the pitching and the playoff schedule.
That Dicey Playoff Schedule
The season ends on October 5th after the Braves complete their last series in Miami. The Wild Card round games are held on October 7-9 (best of 3; so the October 9 game may not be necessary).
There’s only 1 day off to give teams a chance to travel and get ready for that Wild Card round.
Meanwhile, the best division winners – and the NL East Winner will certainly be one of those – don’t have to play again until Tuesday, October 11… so there’s nearly a week off before having to re-engage hostilities with a Wild Card round winner.
If this divisional race goes down to the wire (and that appears likely), the Braves not only will have to keep fighting the entire last month, but they may not be able to rest anyone – especially pitchers – as they pursue the Mets.
But there is a possible solution for Atlanta… even if they don’t take the division.
The Silver Lining
Projecting starting pitchers at this time of the year is always a difficult proposition, but we’re going to do that anyway for this exercise.
If the rotation were to remain entirely and exactly intact between now and the end of the season, the Braves would be lined up to throw Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Jake Odorizzi at the Mets beginning on September 30th.
Not counting yesterday, the Braves do have several off-days remaining (5 of them), but there’s a big run of games in a row that goes from September 17-28, ending just prior to the Mets series.
So if there’s a chance to bring in another starter to get the rotation set up for the Mets, it would be done during those dates… and probably during both of the times Atlanta plays Washington (Sept. 19-21 and again on Sept. 26-28).
Then there’s the question about which pitchers Atlanta should use against the Mets. None of them have been especially outstanding this year against New York, but with that said, nearly all of them have been better when pitching in Atlanta rather than in New York.
Max Fried has been the best, giving up exactly 2 earned runs in every one of 4 outings. Spencer Strider had that one bad outing in New York, but turned it completely around in his most recent meeting back home.
Kyle Wright did not fare well in New York at all (9 ER over 13 innings, but hasn’t faced them at home), and Charlie Morton has been hit-and-miss against them (4 runs, 0 runs, 5 runs).
So how would this work, exactly?
Rescheduling the Schedule
Based on the current schedule, it would require two “bumps” in the schedule to get starts from Fried, Wright, and Strider lined up for the Mets.
That kind of relief could come from September callups from the list of Kyle Muller, Ian Anderson, and Bryce Elder… all who served well during the recent series in Miami. Any of them should be more than capable of shutting down a depleted Nationals squad.
Doing so would also give the Braves a chance to throw the same trio into a Wild Card series, if it comes to that. They would only need to skip a starter for the last game of the regular season, and if the divisional race has already been decided by then, the choice of a starter wouldn’t matter.
Clearly, the better sequence of events would be for this club to keep on winning and to take the division away from New York, but part of that depends on the Mets themselves… they have the potential to keep that from being possible, of course.
But how much better for the Braves if they were to win the division, take a week off, and then see the Mets have to spoil Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in a Wild Card series before (if they prevail) having to go into the next round short-armed and unable to use their best pitching weapons until the middle of their series?
Heck… winning their 5th-straight divisional title would not only help the Braves, but it could do a favor to everybody else in the playoffs… maybe even a first-round Philadelphia team that stumbled to a 5-14 record against the Mets this year.
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So how important is winning the division? While Atlanta’s pitching is deep, that group will need a break from the intensity that September will bring… getting that time off could mean the difference between another World Series run and an early exit from the playoffs.