Could the Atlanta Braves get a Max Fried Extension Done Soon?

Alex Anthopolous has locked up most of the core for the Atlanta Braves with the latest being Austin Riley. Could it be time to lock up the Ace, Max Fried?

Alex Anthopolous has made it a priority to lock up the Braves young core. Could it be time for Max Fried to also get an extension?

Of course, Dansby Swanson will get plenty of attention being a free agent this winter, but could the Braves front office prioritizing locking up their Ace, Max Fried, before he gets closer to free agency himself?

This news comes mostly from Austin Riley’s recent extension. The Braves locking up their cornerstone third baseman did raise questions if they would have money left over for Dansby Swanson or Max Fried.

Mark Bowman quickly gave hope that both could be a priority.

Interestingly, Bowman mentions the Braves could have a top 5 payroll soon and speculates there could be room for both Fried and Swanson.

Barring some unexpected news, we expect Dansby will hit free agency this offseason and he honestly should. He is having a career year at the right time. However, Alan Carpenter pointed out how the Braves may be able to retain Swanson this winter here.

What about Max Fried?

Look out West?

Any Max Fried potential negotiations may have gotten clearer thanks to another pitcher signing an extension recently. Joe Musgrove signed a 5-year deal worth $100M to stay with the Padres.

https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1503507018589507586?s=20&t=cz8lvYbZwjeb2biRuI0aJA

Some believed this could be a solid starting point or reference for a Max Fried deal. Let’s compare the two:

In 2021:

• Max Fried: 21 starts, 132.1 innings, 2.58 ERA, 2.85 xERA, 2.47 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, 3.35 SIERA,1.07 WHIP, 23.1% strikeout rate, 4.5% walk rate, 164 ERA+, 4.8 bWAR, and 4.1 fWAR
• Joe Musgrove: 19 starts, 120.0 innings, 3.00 ERA, 3.39 xERA, 3.29 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP, 25.0% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate, 126 ERA+, 2.2 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR

Similar stats, but the peripherals love Max Fried a good bit more than they love Joe Musgrove. If we back it up to the start of 2021:

• Max Fried: 49 starts, 298.0 innings, 2.84 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA, 1.08 WHIP, 23.4% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 9.2 bWAR, 7.9 fWAR
• Joe Musgrove: 50 starts, 301.1 innings, 3.11 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.52 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 5.8 bWAR, 5.9 fWAR

Both guys have been really reliable for their respective clubs the last two seasons. Fried has been better and has taken a large step forward in 2022. The metrics love Max Fried more than Musgrove, as seen by the higher WAR totals.

Some important differences, Joe Musgrove (29) is a year older than Max Fried (28). Musgrove was also set for free agency after this year, while Max Fried still has two more years of control for the Braves.

With this knowledge, we could assume that any extension for Max Fried would probably need to be more than 5 years and $100M.

Anthopolous Stays Consistent

When we look at the last two extensions done by Alex Anthopolous, the Austin Riley and Matt Olson contracts, we see that Anthopolous has a clear vision. He is willing to lock the core up for the long run but is not pushing these contracts into years where even the best players show decline.

Both Riley and Olson are signed through their age 35 seasons with club options for their age 36 seasons. If we look at when Max Fried would turn 35, that would be 7 seasons following the conclusion of the 2022 season.

Fried is arbitration eligible for the next two seasons, and most raises usually come in $3M-$5M raises each year. If Fried continues to pitch like he has, it might be on the higher end each year.

Also, Fried on the open market would be much more expensive because teams are always looking for front line pitching. So, could buying out Fried’s final two years of arbitration and adding five years get a deal done?

If we stick with the Riley and Olson deals, that would mean $15M in the first year. Then, maybe $20M-$21M in year two. He would need slightly more than Musgrove’s $20M per year, could the Braves get it done for $22M-$23M?

If so, the Braves would be looking at potentially a 7 year, $145M-$150M contract? Maybe $155M? That pushes Fried to $21M/$22M AAV and locks up the Braves Ace with the rest of the Braves young core. If we assume a club option, with Anthopolous loves to include, that could look like an 8th year for $20M-$22M more.

We have yet to see Anthopolous really lock up a pitcher for an extended period of time. Pitcher’s do carry more risk, but there is also not as many front-line guys that become available each year. The Braves have the exclusive ability to negotiate with Fried before anyone else can two years from now.

I’m sure it is being discussed within the Braves front office. Personally, I would love to see a Fried extension get announced over the next several months.