Future payroll: the benefits of the Atlanta Braves’ contract extensions

Cost Certainty

With Austin Riley now on board along with Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Matt Olson – plus several other 2-year deals already in place — the Braves have a total payroll commitment for 2023 of $134.3 million.

That’s a significant sum, but it also accounts for over half of their 26-man roster for next season!

Add in arbitration-eligibles (Fried, Soroka, Minter, Matzek, Bracho, and Ynoa) – and there’s no guarantee all will be tendered a contract – and that leaves only a small handful of open roster spots currently unaccounted for.

Charlie Morton is the biggest wild card here as the Braves hold a $20 million team option on him for 2023.  We’re still awaiting some sort of word about Dansby Swanson’s status, but he could command a contract on the order of $18-20 million for next season as well.

So even if both of those deals come to pass, the Braves would be sitting around $174 million with only about 4 or 5 positions to fill for 2023.

That kind of “cost surety” will beget dividends when trying to entice free agents to come-a-calling.

The Braves also won’t have to overpay for a player (example: Eric Hosmer when he signed with San Diego) and tell him “we’ll build this club around you”.   Why?  Because the Braves already have the players signed to long-term deals that they intend to build around.

Now they just have to point to these kids and say, “Hey free agents – see what we already have?  Come join us and enjoy the ride into the playoffs every year.”

If Terry McGwirk and Alex Anthopoulos are targeting something in the $230-235 million range for a total payroll (fully CB-loaded), that translates to something around $210-215 million in actual contracts for 2023 and beyond.

Based on today’s commitments, Atlanta then would have $75-80 million in spending power as they seek to fill the shortstop, starting pitcher, and (perhaps) closer’s roles.  That should be enough  [and if Swanson joins this party, adjust the figures accordingly].

Others have noticed, too

As Jayson Stark noted in a column for TheAthleic today, Atlanta has achieved this by committing a lot of years to their new “core”… at huge market discounts.

As he recounts a conversation with a rival agent (subscription required):

"So by this agent’s estimate, the Braves wound up with anywhere from a $50- to $80-million discount on Riley. They saved upwards of $100 million on Acuña, and more if you compare his deal to the $340 million the Padres gave Fernando Tatis Jr. Add in another $50- to $70-million discount on Albies and a more modest savings on Olson, whose contract was closest to market value, and … “You’re talking hundreds of millions of dollars,” the agent said, even as he was still being careful not to criticize any player for saying yes to life-changing money."

So why did the Riley extension matter?  Because it built on what the Braves had already done.  Because it also established a predictable ceiling for year-to-year expenditures for the foreseeable future.

Combined with the revenues generated at Battery Atlanta, this team can now maximize their spending efficiency without compromising the kind of talent that they are now going to be able to attract.

In short, the Atlanta Braves can now spend like they are the Dodgers or the Mets or the Yankees… without having to spend at the same total level that these teams are doing.

If you doubt this conclusion, then consider how Stark entitled the sub-section of his post that talked about Atlanta’s situation:  “The Braves are becoming a behemoth”.

These plans don’t always work out perfectly, of course, but just having such a plan that they can run with is going to be huge going forward… and it’s a multi-year plan that should keep this club highly competitive for the foreseeable future.