The Atlanta Braves Bullpen Is As Good As the Numbers Indicate
After blowing another late lead on Wednesday, many are beginning to question the effectiveness of the Atlanta Braves bullpen despite the sparkling numbers.
As a fan, one of the most painful experiences you can endure is watching your team blow a lead late. It feels like that has happened a lot this year for the Atlanta Braves — and that’s because it has.
They currently have the third most blown saves in all of baseball with 20, according to FanGraphs.
That stat can be a bit misleading as good teams are going to have more save opportunities, and thus, will have more blown saves.
In fact, the four teams with the most blown saves this year all have records of .500 or better. Five teams ranked in the top 10 for most blown saves are all current playoff teams.
For the Braves, in particular, you can’t pin it on one guy, they’ve all blown their fair share. After Wednesday’s blown save, Collin McHugh leads the team with 5. Kenley Jansen has 4, A.J. Minter and Will Smith each have 3, and Dylan Lee has 2 while Darren O’Day, Spencer Strider, and Jackson Stephens each have 1.
Braves Bullpen by the Numbers
If you just strictly look at the numbers for the Braves bullpen they will indicate this is a top five bullpen in all of baseball.
Here are their MLB ranks:
ERA: 5th (3.21)
WHIP: 5th (1.16)
K/9: 2nd (10.29)
BB/9: 6th (3.09)
HR/9: 4th (0.87)
Avg Agst: 5th (.216)
xFIP: 4th (3.65)
You can’t deny those numbers — overall, this has been one of the best bullpens in all of baseball.
So why so many blown saves?
Braves: Struggles With Inherited Runners
One aspect of the Braves bullpen you can look at that might explain why they’ve had so many blown saves is the number of inherited runners they’ve allowed to score.
The bullpen has inherited 137 runners this season and allowed 51 of those runners to come around and score.
Over 40 percent of the time when a reliever comes in with a runner on base they are allowing that runner to score.
That percentage certainly isn’t terrible, but it could be better and explains some of those blown saves.
By comparison, the New York Mets bullpen has inherited 126 runners this year and allowed 49 of them to score — 39 percent.
Collin McHugh leads the Braves allowing 9 inherited runners to score, but you have to take into account that he has inherited 29 runners this year! That’s just 31 percent of the inherited runners he’s allowed to score.
And when you look at the Braves’ top high-leverage relievers — McHugh, A.J. Minter, and Dylan Lee — they’ve allowed just 34 percent of inherited runners to score.
Braves Have Played a Lot of Close Games This Year
When you play as many close games as the Braves have this year, by nature, it increases your chances of having more close losses as they had on Wednesday.
Atlanta has played 41 games decided by 2 runs or less this year — that’s nearly 40 percent of their games. And they’ve played 68 games decided by 3 runs or less — that’s two-thirds of their games.
That’s a lot of close games, which puts a lot of stress on your bullpen at the end of games.
Despite that, the Braves are 25-16 in those 2-run games. That should tell you that more often than not, the bullpen is doing a great job of winning those close games.
By comparison, the Mets have played 40 games decided by 2 runs or less this year and are a very comparable 24-16.
The big difference is that the Mets have played 10 fewer games decided by 3 runs or less.
When a Braves reliever comes into a game late, they are being asked to be perfect every time out, and that’s not possible.
A.J. Minter has pitched in 47 games this year and allowed a run in 9 of those games (19%), and multiple runs in just 3 of those games (6%).
Kenley Jansen has pitched in 39 games this year and allowed a run in 11 of those games (28%), and multiple runs in just 2 of them (5%).
Newcomer Raisel Iglesias has allowed at least 1 run in 9 of 39 outings (23%) and multiple runs in 4 outings (10%)
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These guys aren’t perfect — even the best relievers aren’t. But the numbers show that the majority of the time they are getting the job done.