Atlanta Braves: what Austin Riley’s new contract might mean for Swanson

While we’ve been waiting on the Atlanta Braves to make a trade deal, they made a much bigger splash that will impact the club for the next decade.

The Atlanta Braves have inked their All-Star third baseman to a contract that has the largest total value in franchise history.

25-year-old Austin Riley will now be a member of the Braves for at least the next 10 seasons thanks to today’s agreement.  Here’s the overview from TheAthletic writer David O’Brien, via twitter:

The Braves signed Austin Riley to a 10-year, $212 million extension that’s the largest contract in franchise history and includes a $20 million club option for 2033.  He’ll make $15 million in 2023, $21M in 2024 and $22M each remaining year of the deal.  Team bought out 3 years of arbitration and 7-8 years of free agency.  Very team-friendly deal if he continues to perform at or near current level.

Right now, “current level” has been “the best player in baseball”, given July’s performance.  Among those numbers for the month of July (among 292 players in both leagues with minimum 50 plate appearances):

• Highest OPS in majors (1.344)
• Highest fWAR in majors (2.6)
• Highest wRC+ (scaled runs-created metric/100 is average) (267)
• Highest slugging (.885)
• 4th best OBP (.459)
• 3rd in runs scored (21)
• 2nd in homers (11)
• 2nd in RBI (25, tied with Matt Olson)
• 2nd in batting average (.423)

Yeah… lock up this kid at this rate while you still can!  This was an insane month that ought to win him the NL Player of the Month award unanimously.

The Magic Number

There’s an interesting consistency, though, among some recent long-term contracts that the Braves have secured with their players:

• Freddie Freeman‘s extension that ended in 2021:  maximum salary was $22 million (2020-21)
• Matt Olson’s new extension: pays $21 million this year and max’s out at $22 million (2024 through 2029; $20 million option for 2030)
• Riley’s new deal:  also peaks at $22 million with very similar terms as Olson’s.

In fact, only one player has ever extracted more than $22 million from the Braves over the course of any single season.

Josh Donaldson… $23 million… and that was a 1-year contract.

So while Riley has broken new ground in terms of the total package as the first $200 million Braves deal, his contract still conforms to what seems to be a consistent trend to avoid the kind of contracts that many teams seem to be lining up to make whether it be $30+ million per year or $300+ million in total value.

All that seems to be sending a loud message to the “next guy in line”.

The Remaining Infielder

That brings us to Dansby Swanson.  He’s still sitting there… unsigned during his “walk” year… and now the only regular infielder without a long-term contract.

Despite Riley’s contract size, O’Brien is right:  Riley’s deal has all the early earmarks of a “team-friendly” pact, meaning that Atlanta should have the funds to extend Swanson… and/or others as well (Max Fried, for example).

But there’s also a signal here that their offer for Swanson might be a bit less than that for Olson and Riley… or at the absolute most:  $22 million per year.

Before this season, the idea that Swanson might be characterized as an “elite” shortstop was not even a reasonable discussion topic.  He was clearly at the second or third tier at best.

Things have definitely changed for this season, though:

• Defensive metrics are happy with his fielding this year… very much so as Swanson ranks 2nd among all qualified shortstops in the majors.
• Offensively, he ranks 3rd
• Overall:  Swanson’s 4.9 fWAR ranks first… and he’s first by more than half a point.
• Those behind him? Names like Bogaerts, Turner, Lindor, Edman, and Seager.  The “elites”.

So does Swanson have visions of being paid like an elite shortstop?

If nothing else, Riley’s contract appears to draw a thick “do not cross” line.

There’s no way Atlanta will choose to go to the levels of Lindor ($32.9m AAV), Tatis Jr. ($24.3m), Correa ($35.1m), or Seager ($32.5m).

Tatis and Carlos Correa both serve as cautionary tales in this regard…  Tatis is chronically hurt (shoulder) and Correa simply hasn’t been very good this year.

But would Swanson choose to stay in his hometown for a “mere” $18-20 million annually over 5 or 6 years?  We have to hope so, but it’s notable that he hasn’t been nearly as vocal about wanting to stay in Atlanta as Freeman was… and we all know how that story ended.

Hopefully, we find out soon, but with all that said, this is Riley’s big day — so let’s celebrate that with him.

Austin Riley is exactly the kind of player that the Braves want to keep around forever… his work ethic, humbleness, and performance are all top-shelf… and Atlanta fans will get to watch him into the next decade.