The Qualifying Offer Quandary
Ah, but the new MLB/MLBPA Qualifying Offer (QO) was supposed to be something that had been negotiated away this year.
It’s something the players clearly despise, for it makes teams immediately hesitate to sign QO free agents since they stand to lose a precious draft pick by doing so.
That hesitation costs such players money. Just ask Dallas Keuchel. Or Michael Conforto. Heck, even Craig Kimbrel couldn’t entice a team to sign him for all of the 2019 season.
It’s not all of the QO free agents that are impacted, but it’s certainly those “on the cusp” of earning monies near the level of the QO payday: a 1-year day representing the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the sport.
For the last off-season, that figure was $18.4 million.
There was an agreement among the parties early this year that the QO would vanish if they could come to an agreement to establish rules for an International Draft… one that would (hopefully) clean up the corrupt process (if you can call it that) by which amateur teens are signed outside the US and Canada.
It’s a bad situation… one that has seen the Red Sox and Braves both be sanctioned for bad behavior in the process.
But the deadline for those negotiations came and went yesterday (July 25th). As a result, there will still be business as usual for the next international signing period this Winter and the Qualifying Offer system will remain in place for now.
Getting Back to Swanson
There is speculation that once we get beyond the trade deadline, Alex Anthopoulos will turn attention to his All-Star shortstop, and perhaps send a contract extension offer his way.
Clearly, Swanson should be eager to see this, being from the immediate area, but there’s also the Freddie Freeman saga still fresh in his mind.
That said, here’s someone who was looking like a $12-14 million dollar player after last year and is now playing more like a $16-$20 million man.
But if he doesn’t like what the Braves offer… there is now the looming spectre of being handed a Qualifying Offer at year’s end. That might hurt Swanson – a lot – if he thinks the open market is the way to go.
There’s also the shortstop market itself. Trea Turner will be out there. Carlos Correa. Probably Xander Bogaerts. How many teams would want to spend a lot of money on a shortstop and then also sacrifice a draft pick for … well, he’s been an excellent player this year, but would you bet high on a long-term deal?
That call is almost certainly close enough for the Braves that they would give him the dreaded QO and an offer to pay him $18+ million for 2023 if they can’t get a true contract extension settled by year’s end.
Given that, what are Swanson’s options going forward?