1. Another team will probably get him anyway
Maybe. But that’s a defeatist attitude if you don’t try. Heck, if I had to hand-pick one team other than the Braves, it would be Seattle (since they are in the American League!).
But while reports from yesterday suggest that Washington is focused on “one or two teams” at the moment, literally anyone can still jump in with an offer now.
Let’s look at a couple of the most likely suitors, though (keeping in mind that all of these clubs have to assume they can’t sign Soto for the long term):
- St. Louis. Are they truly just one player away from having a breakthrough? They need multiple outfielders to have better production, and one of the bigger starting pitcher names. Then there’s Arenado’s contract already on the books. Still, they’re a threat.
- San Diego. While you can’t underestimate AJ Preller, they have multiple bad contracts that weigh down this team (Hosmer, Myers), plus multiple enormous others (Tatis Jr., Machado, Darvish).
- LA Dodgers. They should be more concerned about pitching… and shortstop… and third base… for the long-term than the outfield, but you also can’t ever rule them out.
- NY Mets. How much can they really spend? The sky might be their limit, but they have some other needs, too.
- NY Yankees. Some see Soto as a safety net against the possible loss of Aaron Judge, but they are stingy about emptying their farm system… always… particularly if they can’t guarantee Soto sticks around.
- Seattle. They have the resources and they have Jerry DiPoto. But are they ready to do that now? Are they thinking 3 years or 13? This is a tough one.
- Texas. They are “pot committed” by hiring Semien and Seager over the Winter. But they also need pitchers, and this year isn’t going to be their year.
As for the Braves, Alex Anthopoulos has definitely been in on some top names in recent off-seasons: JT Realmuto. George Springer. Justin Verlander. He pulled off a deal for Josh Donaldson while running the Blue Jays. He does understand the value of the superstar.
Need I also remind you that he did acquire Charlie Morton and Kenley Jansen. Oh, and Donaldson was briefly a Brave, too. You could also point to the Matt Olson trade, though I’m honor-bound to note that one with an asterisk since it was a quite different situation.
So about Soto, then…
If I’m the Atlanta Braves, I go in with all 4 current top prospects, an offer to take at least a majority of Patrick Corbin’s contract, and the option to take the Braves’ second or third pitcher selection from last week’s draft… and then negotiate from there. Go all in.
That’s a big offer. Huge. It includes Kyle Muller, the odds-on favorite to be the “next up” guy in the rotation if Anderson needs a break.
Despite that, there’s a very interesting headline in a post today on BaseballAmerica.com that should catch an eye or two: “Teams Rarely Regret Cost Of Trading For A Star Position Player” (full story paywalled).
BA examined 17 trades of star players going back decades. Their conclusion? The team acquiring the star benefitted significantly in 13 cases, with the other 4 considered a “push”.