Debating the question: the Atlanta Braves should pursue Juan Soto

It would be shooting for the moon and probably has a 0.04% chance of happening, but it’s time to have a rational debate about why the Atlanta Braves should be calling the Nationals about Juan Soto.

“Never tell me the odds.”  Let’s hope that there’s nobody from the Atlanta Braves’ Department of Analytics whispering things into the ear of GM Alex Anthopolous about the chances of getting Juan Soto away from Washington… a name that ironically sounds a lot like “Han Solo” if you need a reminder of the source of that quote.

So here we are now at the last full week prior to the August 2nd MLB Trade Deadline and the player now holding the title of “Human Trade Rumor” is Soto.

All it took to earn that honor was the simple matter of turning down $440 million dollars.

It’s easy to dismiss pursuing a player like Soto.  Here’s the quickie list of arguments you might come up with to do so:

• He’s way too expensive
• Can’t sign him for the long term
• The Braves really need a starting pitcher
• It’s too high a cost of prospects
• (related) The Braves don’t have the farm system to offer
• Atlanta already has plenty of outfielders
• The Nats aren’t going to trade Soto within the division
• Another team will probably get him anyway
• He’s not that good

All of these are understandable… except the last one.  If you believe that, you’re an idiot.

But all the rest of these are understandable… until you open the floor for debate on each one.  So let’s do a deeper dive and construct an argument against each of these points.

What follows may simply be no more than an exercise in futility, but hey:  the worst thing that can happen is … well, I guess the worst would be that the Mets end up with him, right?  In the meantime… maybe we can convince a few doubters?

Before that, though, let’s review the supposed asking price for Soto’s services:

• “4 or 5” top prospects.
• All of these players either in the majors with low service time or lower-risk upper minor league talents.

That is a tall order… but we’ll get to that from the Braves’ perspective as we go along.  Let’s count down those arguments.

8.  Soto is too expensive for the Braves

Soto is currently on a $17.1 million arbitration-level deal, which translates to being owed around $7.3 million for the rest of the season.

For a player of Soto’s caliber (He’s on pace for 5 bWAR this season; last year was 7.1), that’s a ridiculously low sum.

“But he wants half a billion dollars!”  True, but that’s a conversation for the off-season after 2024… not now.

Well, okay… let’s go ahead and address that up front:  is Atlanta up for a $35-40 million contract annually for the next decade-plus? No… but to make this worth the effort, they don’t have to be, either.

Let’s go ahead and jump into the next topic, since it’s directly relevant…

7.  Atlanta can’t sign him for the long term

Is this really a problem?  Think about this for a second:  would you as a Braves fan be happy with a chance for 3 more deep post-season runs after having this World Series taste still lingering from 2021?  Of course you would.

Do you think Soto would help this team get there?  Of course he would.

How about this, then:  do you have any idea what the state of the team’s finances or Soto’s health or anything else might be by the end of 2024?  Nope.

Juan Soto is still arbitration eligible – i.e., he’s under complete team control – through the end of the 2024 season.

Yes: by the time 2024 rolls around, he will probably be in line for a record-breaking arbitration deal of something around $30 million… plus or minus.  But there’s “no such thing as a bad one-year contract”, right?

So maybe… just maybe… we could look at a Soto acquisition as a 2½ year stint with anything else simply icing on the cake.

There is a Backup Plan, too

Hey – even if things were to sour and fall apart, Soto could be traded again for a prospect haul… and then Atlanta would benefit.  But let’s check the upcoming calendars:

• Ronald Acuna is signed through 2026 with options for 2027 and 2028.
• Matt Olson is in through 2029 with a 2030 option.
• Ozzie Albies’ deal runs “only” through 2025 with 2 more years of options after that.

That’s it… that’s all of the long-term deals the Braves currently have on the books.  So would it even make any sense to throw half a billion toward Soto through 2036 if you might be rebuilding by the end of this decade anyway?

Of course we don’t know how things might play out with players like Swanson (we could know soon on him), Fried, Riley, and perhaps Harris, but that’s the current state of things today.

From the 1990’s through 2010, the Braves seemed content to find that “big bat guy” in any manner they could.

For several years, it was Fred McGriff.  But a sequence of big hitters followed who didn’t last for very many years:  Andres Galarraga, J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Mark Teixeira.

Individually, you might decry the fact that they didn’t hang around very long.  But look at some of the numbers from these ‘externally acquired’ bats:

• J.D. Drew:  8.6 fWAR in 2004
• Gary Sheffield:  7.3 fWAR in 2003 (and 4.8 in 2002)
• Andres Galarraga: 5.0 fWAR in 1998
• Mark Teixeira: 5.6 fWAR combined between the 2007 and 2008 trade deadlines

That’s easily the kind of league that Soto is in… his contributions could be enormous.

So don’t sweat the long-term… embrace the short term.  In this case, embrace that it’s for a run of up to 3 post-season chances.

6. The Braves really need a starting pitcher

That’s probably true, but there are ways to deal with that, too.

The troubles of Ian Anderson are pretty much season-long in scope, but have become increasingly obvious over the past couple of months.

Between that and the chance that Spencer Strider could be running on fumes by September. the braves really do need to add someone for depth purposes.

But it doesn’t have to be a guy that’s going to require serious prospects.

A perfect candidate could be Noah Syndergaard, since he’s going to cost … pretty much only money.  He’s healthy, throwing well, and would love nothing else but to compete against his old team (the Mets).

If not him, then name virtually any non-contending team with a veteran starter sporting a 4 ERA who chews up innings.  That will be sufficient.

But none of that has anything to do with Juan Soto… nor does it preclude a phone call to Mike Rizzo to explore the possibilities.

5 and 4: It’s too high a cost of prospects / The Braves don’t have the farm system.

Maybe.  Maybe not.  A large part of this trade deadline is what I call a “Beauty Contest”.  In short, there’s a whole lotta prospects vying for the attention of the judges (Washington GM Mike Rizzo is the Chief Judge).

But beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  We simply don’t know if they have been secretly coveting some prospect or two that the Braves have.

We also don’t know if the Nationals prefer “quality” or “quantity” or both (likely both, I’d imagine).  As this team’s for sale, we don’t know if their priority is to clear the books as much as possible (i.e., “we know Stephen Strasburg is an impossible ask, but please take Patrick Corbin off our hands”) or if they simply want as many prospects as they can get.

Frankly, they may not care since it won’t be their problem in another year or so… my strong suspicion is that they’d take 3 or 4 prospects and dump Corbin in along with Soto and call it a day.

Regardless, the Nationals – in general – need young pitching.  The Braves have Kyle Muller and Bryce Elder toiling away at AAA.  Freddy Tarnok and Tucker Davidson, too.  Jared Shuster is knocking on that AAA door.

None of these guys have yet busted down the door to the majors, though, so it’s a fair question to ask:  which do you prefer (I’ll paraphrase Casey Stern here)? The promise of prospects or parades down Peachtree?

Heck, all 2022 draft picks are tradeable after the next World Series, so maybe they’d prefer one of those guys just inked last week (that could be done now on a Player to be Named Later basis).

Bum deal for them to be traded like that, but it also would get them that much closer to the majors faster.

But Atlanta is fairly well set – right now and perhaps for a few more years – at the major league level.  This leaves virtually no one in the minors who could be designated as “untouchable” in trade talks with anyone… especially for a superstar like Juan Soto.  So let’s use these guys.

1. Another team will probably get him anyway

Maybe.  But that’s a defeatist attitude if you don’t try.  Heck, if I had to hand-pick one team other than the Braves, it would be Seattle (since they are in the American League!).

But while reports from yesterday suggest that Washington is focused on “one or two teams” at the moment, literally anyone can still jump in with an offer now.

Let’s look at a couple of the most likely suitors, though (keeping in mind that all of these clubs have to assume they can’t sign Soto for the long term):

• St. Louis.  Are they truly just one player away from having a breakthrough?  They need multiple outfielders to have better production, and one of the bigger starting pitcher names.  Then there’s Arenado’s contract already on the books.  Still, they’re a threat.
• San Diego.  While you can’t underestimate AJ Preller, they have multiple bad contracts that weigh down this team (Hosmer, Myers), plus multiple enormous others (Tatis Jr., Machado, Darvish).
• LA Dodgers.  They should be more concerned about pitching… and shortstop… and third base… for the long-term than the outfield, but you also can’t ever rule them out.
• NY Mets.  How much can they really spend?  The sky might be their limit, but they have some other needs, too.
• NY Yankees.  Some see Soto as a safety net against the possible loss of Aaron Judge, but they are stingy about emptying their farm system… always… particularly if they can’t guarantee Soto sticks around.
• Seattle.  They have the resources and they have Jerry DiPoto.  But are they ready to do that now?  Are they thinking 3 years or 13?  This is a tough one.
• Texas.  They are “pot committed” by hiring Semien and Seager over the Winter.  But they also need pitchers, and this year isn’t going to be their year.

As for the Braves, Alex Anthopoulos has definitely been in on some top names in recent off-seasons:  JT Realmuto.  George Springer.  Justin Verlander.  He pulled off a deal for Josh Donaldson while running the Blue Jays.  He does understand the value of the superstar.

Need I also remind you that he did acquire Charlie Morton and Kenley Jansen.  Oh, and Donaldson was briefly a Brave, too.  You could also point to the Matt Olson trade, though I’m honor-bound to note that one with an asterisk since it was a quite different situation.

So about Soto, then…

If I’m the Atlanta Braves, I go in with all 4 current top prospects, an offer to take at least a majority of Patrick Corbin’s contract, and the option to take the Braves’ second or third pitcher selection from last week’s draft… and then negotiate from there. Go all in.

That’s a big offer.  Huge.  It includes Kyle Muller, the odds-on favorite to be the “next up” guy in the rotation if Anderson needs a break.

Despite that, there’s a very interesting headline in a post today on BaseballAmerica.com that should catch an eye or two: “Teams Rarely Regret Cost Of Trading For A Star Position Player” (full story paywalled).

BA examined 17 trades of star players going back decades.  Their conclusion?  The team acquiring the star benefitted significantly in 13 cases, with the other 4 considered a “push”.

A quick word about 2 trades not making their list

Baseball America has a significant list of deals (including the separate ones bringing Fred McGriff and Justin Upton to Atlanta), but there are a couple of notable deals omitted:

• Mark Teixeira
• J.D. Drew

Drew came to the Braves for Adam Wainwright.  Arguably, both teams got what they needed on that deal, though Atlanta only had Drew for 1 year (his career best) and Wainwright… is still pitching.

The question here is whether Wainwright’s career trajectory would have been the same in a Braves’ uniform… or if he’d still be with the team today as he is with the Cardinals.  Given the situation at the time (this is already too lengthy to get into that), it’s fair to suggest that neither possibility would have panned out.  Certainly, though, his career in St. Louis has been exceptional.

On Teixeira, Atlanta gave up a lot to get him and then they indeed got a lot out of their new first baseman.  That part of the deal might have been okay…. at least until they found he would not be signing back with Atlanta.

At that point, the Braves had to get what they could for him, and it wasn’t enough, but they also had no real leverage.

Again:  the situation with Juan Soto is different.  Get him now and there’s 2½ years of team control.  This is also why overpaying for less control (like the Teixeira situation) would not be a good play.

Worth the effort?  Check this

The Braves should try this.  The reasons for not trying aren’t good enough.

Just imagine a batting order like this:

• Acuna
• Swanson
• Soto
• Olson
• Riley
• Ozuna
• d’Arnaud/Contreras
• Arcia/Cano/Albies
• Harris

That’s World Series-worthy.  Plenty of hitting protection up and down the lineup for all of the Atlanta hitters if Soto is added.  It also moves Rosario and Heredia to pinch-hit roles, which doesn’t hurt.

Besides… do you really want Soto swinging for another club that the Braves will have to beat in the playoffs?

If the Nationals are willing… the Braves should push in their remaining prospect chips for Soto.  they have enough stability and depth remaining to support the major league club… and additional years to rebuild the farm through the draft and international markets.

So let’s keep Soto off the Mets, Dodgers, Padres, and even the Cardinals.  Let’s bring him to Atlanta for the next 3 Fall campaigns.  Why not try?  Alex Anthopoulos isn’t stupid… he’s probably already checked in.