Beware: Pirates Ahead
Syndergaard is obviously not the only starting pitcher available at the deadline, and with some other intriguing potential arms for the Atlanta Braves to kick the tires on, there comes other arms to not get your hopes up about.
José Quintana has come up on social media quite a bit in recent weeks as a target for the Atlanta Braves.
It does make sense to explore players of Quintana’s contract situation. He will be a free agent at the end of the year, and will only be owed the pro-rated amount of 2 million dollars.
The issue with Quintana is much like Syndergaard. His 3.99 ERA and other surface numbers are not telling the whole story. In fact, his xERA is 4.28.
His 3.99 ERA (106 ERA+) — better than both Morton and Anderson — is an upgrade in theory, but his expectancy stats show that he will regress if he keeps pitching like he is:
- xwOBA – Bottom 33% in the league
- xERA – Bottom 33%
- xBA – Bottom 20%
- xSLG – Bottom 37%
- Barrel% – Bottom 47%
- K% – Bottom 39%
Players sometimes outpitch their peripherals over long periods of time. Julio Teheran did it for years. However, Quintana’s history shows that his recent surface numbers show that 2022’s ERA so far could be an anomaly.
His 3.99 ERA is the best he has produced since 2016, suggesting that he will not continue to outperform his peripherals for very long.
If the Atlanta Braves were in need of a 4th or 5th starter who could get them through the rest of the regular season, this trade could make sense if the package was right. However, if the Braves were to trade for an SP, they are most likely looking for a clear upgrade, not just some depth.