Atlanta Braves: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up For These 3 Trade Candidates
As mentioned earlier, the Atlanta Braves could use an upgrade in the rotation. It is not a need, but for the right player it could make sense to add a starting pitcher.
However, since an upgrade in the rotation is not a need, but more of a luxury, there are a few names that simply do not make sense for the Atlanta Braves that many other teams would be happy to have.
Noah Syndergaard
Syndergaard is obviously a big name that the Angels were hoping would help their team in one of their weakest areas in the past few years (Starting Pitching).
Unfortunately for the Trout and Ohtani, it looks like the Angels are going to miss the playoffs yet again.
Noah Syndergaard is on a one-year deal with the Angels after signing a pillow contract hoping to bolster his free agency value in the future. The Angels could very well re-sign him, but it does not make sense for them to keep around a player who could walk in free agency for nothing, if they can get some value in return at the deadline.
Syndergaard is an intriguing player, but he just simply does not make sense for the Atlanta Braves… though the case for getting him is understandable.
He has a decent lineup of stats with an ERA of 4.00 (96 ERA+), 3.60 FIP, 1.197 WHIP, and 4.04 strikeout to walk ratio (SO/W).
The majority of the time, when a team trades for a player, they are trading for what the player will provide after they acquire him.
Syndergaard is showing serious signs of regressing soon. According to Statcast, his peripherals are not ones that the Braves should be drooling over:
- Expected weighted On Base Average Against (xwOBA) – Bottom 35% in the league
- Expected ERA (xERA) – Bottom 35%
- Expected Batting Average Against (xBA) – Bottom 39%
- Expected Slugging% Against (xSLG) – Bottom 41%
- Solid Contact Against (Barrel%) – Bottom 44%
- Strikeout Rate (K%) – Bottom 24%
Mix these peripherals with his adjusted ERA (ERA+) at 96, which is the same as Charlie Morton’s, it just does not make sense to add Syndergaard since he will not be a clear upgrade. He also would take up quite a bit of payroll with the pro-rated amount of his 21 million dollar contract (approximately $9 million) remaining.
Beware: Pirates Ahead
Syndergaard is obviously not the only starting pitcher available at the deadline, and with some other intriguing potential arms for the Atlanta Braves to kick the tires on, there comes other arms to not get your hopes up about.
José Quintana has come up on social media quite a bit in recent weeks as a target for the Atlanta Braves.
It does make sense to explore players of Quintana’s contract situation. He will be a free agent at the end of the year, and will only be owed the pro-rated amount of 2 million dollars.
The issue with Quintana is much like Syndergaard. His 3.99 ERA and other surface numbers are not telling the whole story. In fact, his xERA is 4.28.
His 3.99 ERA (106 ERA+) — better than both Morton and Anderson — is an upgrade in theory, but his expectancy stats show that he will regress if he keeps pitching like he is:
- xwOBA – Bottom 33% in the league
- xERA – Bottom 33%
- xBA – Bottom 20%
- xSLG – Bottom 37%
- Barrel% – Bottom 47%
- K% – Bottom 39%
Players sometimes outpitch their peripherals over long periods of time. Julio Teheran did it for years. However, Quintana’s history shows that his recent surface numbers show that 2022’s ERA so far could be an anomaly.
His 3.99 ERA is the best he has produced since 2016, suggesting that he will not continue to outperform his peripherals for very long.
If the Atlanta Braves were in need of a 4th or 5th starter who could get them through the rest of the regular season, this trade could make sense if the package was right. However, if the Braves were to trade for an SP, they are most likely looking for a clear upgrade, not just some depth.
Juan Soto
Let’s just tear off the Band-Aid. Juan Soto will not be on the Atlanta Braves after the trade deadline.
Even though it would be fantastic to see what would arguably be the best outfield in MLB with Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris already in the fold, there are just too many factors playing against this dream outfield becoming a reality.
First, now that it appears Juan Soto will be available, there could potentially be a massive bidding war for his services since he would clearly make any team better. This is not the type of player that Alex Anthopoulos typically targets.
As we have seen in Anthopoulos’ tenure with the Atlanta Braves, he typically targets players that are not on many radars. Last year’s deadline acquisitions are a good example. Not many people predicted a bidding war for players like Jorge Soler, who Anthopoulos was able to get cheap.
Next, the Braves have a terrible farm system, as stated earlier. Juan Soto would require a serious haul of top-tier prospects, which the Braves cannot provide.
If the Braves were to offer a trade that would pique the interest of the Nationals, it is virtually guaranteed that it would require high upside, controllable players already on the major league roster.
Making a trade that would involve players already on the Braves’ roster would be counterproductive for the Braves since they would be adding Juan Soto to win now.
If the Atlanta Braves were to add Juan Soto, they would most likely need to shed salary since they already have the highest payroll they have ever had. Juan Soto is owed the pro-rated amount of 17.1 million dollars this year.
The shedding of salary would most likely not be shed onto the Nationals because typically a team like the Braves would need to attach more prospects to lure the receiving team to take on the money. With other teams being able to offer better prospects, the odds of this happening is slim.
Finally, the reason that Juan Soto would be available is because he reportedly turned down a 15 yrs/$440M contract. Because of this, it is virtually guaranteed that the Braves would only have Soto for 2.5 years because the current front office for the Braves does not offer contracts of this size.
For reference, Matt Olson’s 8 yrs/$168M is the largest ever given out by the Atlanta Braves, which is nowhere close to what Soto is looking for when he hits free agency.
Of course, each of the variables against Soto being a Brave in and of itself is not enough to say Soto will not be traded to the Braves. But, adding all the variables together, it is virtually impossible.
Next. Atlanta Braves 2022 first-round draft picks. dark
Here’s to hoping for another crazy trade deadline for the Atlanta Braves. It is going to be fun to see how the front office handles the trade deadline after winning a World Series.