Atlanta Braves trade ranked prospects for a draft pick: Why?
The Atlanta Braves trade of two ranked prospects for a competitive balance round pick adds an interesting twist to the draft.
As Jake told us earlier today, the Atlanta Braves traded Drew Waters, Andrew Hoffman, and CJ Alexander to Kansas City in exchange for the Royals pick in the first competitive balance round of Sunday’s Rule 4 Amateur Draft.
Waters’ stock dropped as he struggled with a high K-rate, and the writing was on the wall when the club promoted Michael Harris II instead of Waters. Most of us at the Take felt Waters was a trade chip the Braves would use to bring in needed talent at the deadline, but trading for a prospect — or a prospect via a draft pick — was never discussed.
The trade of Waters, Hoffman, and Alexander was a clear signal that Alex Anthopoulos is executing a plan to maximize the money available to sign additions to the club’s depleted farm system
The trade market
A look around the trade market shows low quantities of actual talent and high demand.
Tier one is premium pitching, with only Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, and Tyler Mahle at the 99th percentile on the absolutely-will-be-moved scale.
There are rumors that the Marlins may move Jorge Lopez for Major-League-ready offense. He would require a huge return, so I don’t think that happens.
The Padres would trade Blake Snell or Mike Clevinger for the right outfielder. Snell’s never seemed to find a home in San Diego, and Clevinger is in his walk year.
However, a team who should understand how fragile pitching depth is would have to get exactly what they want. Neither of these pitchers are going to get traded for prospects.
No elite bats are on the move unless a team expects Gallo to shake off his distaste for New York and start destroying the ball again, leaving only players like the four the Atlanta Braves signed last year. The Braves still have the prospects to get those kinds of guys.
The arrival of Robinson Cano may end the Braves search for a left-handed bat. The Waters deal ends any chance of Andrew Benintendi coming to Atlanta, and other rentals are affordable.
Atlanta Braves gooey math stuff
Before the trade, the Braves had a draft pool of $8,022,200; adding the slot-35 money raises the pool to $10,224,300, which now ranks as the 10th-highest amount overall.
Clubs incur progressive penalties if they exceed their draft pool. Teams that exceed their pool by…
- 0-5 percent pay a 75% tax on the excess
- 5-10 percent pay a 75% tax on the excess and lose a first-round draft pick in the next draft.
- 10-15 percent pay a 100% tax and lose their picks in the first and second rounds of the next draft.
- more the 15% pay a 100% tax and lose their next two first-round picks
In 10 Drafts with bonus pool rules, teams have outspent their allotments 172 times, but never by more than 5 percent. The Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants do it every year, and 20 of the 30 teams outspent their pools in 2021.
My draft records go back to 2016 and show that the Braves exceeded the pool every year since. Adding the $2.2M for slot-35 increases the amount they can exceed the pool from $401,110 to 511,210, a difference of $110,105.
Assuming the Braves continue to go as far as money takes them, the de facto limit becomes $10,735,515, which would incur a tax penalty of $383,407.50, bringing total spending to about $11,118,922.50.
I’ve got cash, let’s buy something!
Alan looked at where the Atlanta Braves might go for their first-round pick, and we discussed it in our podcast. Adding the money doesn’t change the situation all that much.
Perhaps it allows them to go over-slot for a pitcher like lefty Brandon Barriera out of American Heritage High School in Plantation, Florida. He’s a Vandy commit, so I think signing him might prove expensive, but he’s described by Baseball America ($) as a first-round talent despite his size.
, , , ,plenty of stuff and the control that should give him a chance to start. Barriera will need to prove his durability and that his stuff can hold up to the rigors of a professional schedule, but he is a real first round talent and one of the best left-handed pitchers in the class.
No college pitcher would require an overpay at number 20,
If the Braves go for pitching, and he’s available, I wouldn’t mind a run at Kumar Rocker. The Athletic (SS) has Rocker going to the Rockies at number ten, while BA’s latest mock ($) has him going to the Angels at 17. The Angels drafted 20 pitchers in 20 rounds last year, and the Rockies are also desperate for pitching; neither would surprise me.
The BA mock linked above has the Braves grabbing Cade Horton out of Oklahoma. They also call him an extreme risk.
I believe the Braves will spread their money around rather than put all of it on one player, particularly a high school pitcher.
The Atlanta Braves need bats.
The Atlanta Braves’ draft philosophy since 1965 has centered on getting pitching and trading for everything else. I don’t believe that works well today.
In a game where pitchers throw as hard as they can as long as they can, injuries often end or curtail a career. Pitchers arriving in the majors too soon find themselves out of baseball before they find their groove.
In other words, pitching is more of a lottery ticket than ever. If teams find it, nurture it, and it blossoms, they’re reluctant to trade it away.
Batters are easier to project and more plentiful. The 2022 draft is batter rich; once you get past the top ten arms, it’s possible to find similar arms in round two or three.
Why not add college bats early and under-slot and use the saved money to add pitchers in later rounds?
Give me some names!
Glad you asked. How about Spencer Jones? If you’d like to have an Aaron Judge clone, the 6’-7, 225-pound Jones is an upgraded model.
His hit tool is still blooming, but he has 60-power, 55-speed that would allow him to stick in centerfield. Joe Rexrode recently profiled him in The Athletic Z($), writing that Matt Pajak of the Prospect Development Pipeline indicated an extraordinary mix of gifts.
Pajak wrote a piece about Jones on lodensports.com, calling him an “outlier athlete” with a Loden Score of 9 out of 12 — “a feat accomplished by fewer than 1 percent of elite, physically mature athletes,” Pajak wrote.
Traditional scouts know he has thump, but wonder whether he’ll strike out too much; but the young man has thump and wheels.
Last month at the MLB Draft Combine . . . he averaged 103.6 mph on his 10 swings and had the hardest-hit ball . . .at 112.2 mph. Of those 10 swings, nine counted as “hard hit” at 95 mph or higher. Only two players . . . were 100 percent in that exercise. Jones also ran a blistering 3.60 in the 30, the third-best time at the combine.
Most expect Jones to go in the second round, But taking him in the first at 20 or 35 allows the Braves to convince SS Brandon Ritchie to skip UCLA or pitcher Cole Phillips to tell Arkansas he changed his mind and sign with Atlanta.
These names are examples, not suggestions of how the Atlanta Braves might go in the draft – except for Jones. I really want Jones; the team’s always had great luck with players named Jones, right?
We’ll begin to get the answer Sunday night.
That’s a wrap
Here’s what I’ve seen from Alex Anthopoulos since he arrived: he doesn’t throw money around willy-nilly. He does his research. Not every signing works, but he’s doing better than most. He doesn’t allow intelligence leaks, either; no one knows what the Atlanta Braves will do until it’s done.
If you read through the high school pitchers in BA’s top 100, you’ll find all of them classified as an extreme risk. I understand that high risk may, eventually, bring a big reward. Maybe, AA will use the extra funds to go over-slot on a high school pitcher, but I don’t think so.
Next. Our stars are All-Stars!. dark
This feels like a way to spread the money around on a group of players with a higher probability of success.