3 Atlanta Braves Primed For Bouncebacks

Ozzie Albies

Ozzie Albies has not had a terrible year so far offensively for the Atlanta Braves if you factor in that his OPS+ is 10% below average, but it has not been ideal.

His slash line of .227/.287/.397 is well below his career .271/.323/.472. To be fair, offense is down across the league, as evidence by this slash resulting in an OPS that is only 10% below average. Still, these numbers could definitely be improved upon, and there are some signs that this could happen.

Albies’ current BABIP is 9th on the Atlanta Braves at .232 which is well above the league average of .285. It is also well below his career average of .295.

This low BABIP seems to have directly affected his actual batting average because his xBA is just fine at top 38% of the league. Albies’ current xBA is right on par with his career average at .266 and .265 respectively.

Albies has never been an on-base machine having a career OBP of .323 so hos offensive profile focuses on batted balls and slugging. He currently is doing better than 77% of league at limiting strikeouts.

Based on his BABIP and xBA, we should see his batting average go up, which in turn will see him get on base more as well.

As far as trends go, his xwOBA has been pretty consistent, not only in his past 50 PA, but his last 250 as well.

In a nutshell we can see:

·         Current .232 BABIP vs his career .295 BABIP

·         Current xBA is .266 (top 38%) vs an actual .227

·         His xwOBA has been consistent with his career numbers

With these data points, it would not be shocking to see Ozzie Albies making a turnaround from an on-field number standpoint, even if he continues to swing the bat exactly how he is doing right now.

Collin McHugh

Collin McHugh has a terrible ERA of 4.97 for the Atlanta Braves. If current ERA is the only thing that front offices and managers looked at, it would be hard to justify a player with a 4.97 ERA holding a roster spot.

Fortunately for McHugh, this is not the case. McHugh has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league, and there are quite a few data points to show it.

Currently his BABIP against is well higher than league average at .375, and is only 6 pitchers who have pitched for the Atlanta Braves this season have had worse luck with BABIP. As for his career, he averages a BABIP against of .303, .72 points lower.

As far as peripherals McHugh has been top notch:

·         xwOBA against – Top 7%

·         Expected ERA (xERA) – Top 7%

·         xBA – top 15%

·         xSLG – Top 10%

·         Strikeout% – Top 9%

With peripherals like these, it shows how volatile the ERA of a relief pitcher can be. In fact, McHugh’s top 7% xERA is at 2.19 which is a full 2.78 difference in ERA.

McHugh’s trends have also been excellent. In his past 250 PA his xwOBA against is trending up almost the entire way, while his last 25 PA are following the same trend.

If McHugh continues to pitch like his has, it is virtually guaranteed that his ERA is going to progress at an extremely rapid pace.

In a nutshell:

·         Current .375 BABIP against vs .303 for his career

·         xERA is 2.19 while his actual ERA is 4.97

·         His peripherals are tops in the league

·         His trends are progressing as time goes on

3 players turning things around is most likely not enough to guarantee the Atlanta Braves securing another World Series title, but these 3 players bouncing back would go a long way in helping the Braves get on the right track.