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3 Atlanta Braves Primed For Bouncebacks

By Sam Peebles

ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 13: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves returns to the dugout during the sixth inning of an MLB game against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on April 13, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 13: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves returns to the dugout during the sixth inning of an MLB game against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on April 13, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – MAY 21: Marcell Ozuna #20 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after hitting a solo homer in the sixth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Truist Park on May 21, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna is obviously not hitting like the front office had hoped, and some of that is self-inflicted with a 20% strikeout rate. However, there are some positive signs that he can bounce back.

His BABIP is showing signs of bad luck. Currently he is 10th on the Atlanta Braves with a .229. This is .56 below league average. As far as his career goes, Ozuna has a career BABIP of .312 and has only ever had 1 full season below .309. With a difference of .83 in BABIP, there is a big chance that his luck will swing into a progression.

His peripherals also show that he will improve. If you look at his xSLG he is in the Top 21% of the league, yet his actual slugging percentage is .102 below his career average.

His weighted on base average (wOBA) is also well below his expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .274 and .343 respectively. Along with this, his xwOBA is in the top 42% in the league.

Based on an above average xwOBA and xSLG, one could typically assume that a player has an OPS that is above league average because if they had a wOBA and SLG above league average then their OPS+ would be over 100.

However, Ozuna sits with a terrible slash line of .210/.260/.355, which equates to an OPS+ of 71, being 29% below average.

His recent trends are a bit concerning with his last 50 plate appearances being below league average in the xwOBA department. However, if we factor in his last 250 as a whole, he has stayed above average.

In a nutshell we can see:

·         Current BABIP .229 vs his career being .312

·         xwOBA  is .343 (top 42%), yet his wOBA is .274

·         xSLG is top 21%, yet is .102 below his career average

Odds are heavily favoring that his 29% below league average OPS shooting up as the season progresses.

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