3 Atlanta Braves Primed For Bouncebacks

The Atlanta Braves have clearly been underperforming. There comes a point to where excuses only get you so far. However, there are some Atlanta Braves players that are primed for some bouncebacks.

There are actual numbers to look at to gain some hope for bouncebacks from players beyond just a gut feeling. If moves and decisions were made purely on gut feeling, then the Atlanta Braves would be in a worse position than they are now.

What can be looked at to tell if certain Atlanta Braves are primed for a bounce back?

As with most areas of the game, there are many variables involved, but there are key numbers that can be looked at.

BABIP

Batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is not an end-all-be-all stat, but it is typically one that can be looked at as a start. The league average BABIP is typically around .300. This means that when a ball is put in play, 3 out of 10 of them result in hits. This year, the current average BABIP is lower than normal at approximately .285.

When looking at individual players you always want to look at their career BABIP because BABIP does not factor in variables like exit velocity and ball placement.

BABIP can be used for both hitters and pitchers. For example, if a hitter’s BABIP is well below his career average and well below league average, odds are he is primed to bounce back. Jorge Soler in 2021 right before the trade deadline last year is a good example. He had a .167 BABIP through July 3rd, then went on a tear because he was swing the bat well all year and his luck caught up to him.

On the pitching side of things, it works in the same manner. If a pitcher has a BABIP against him that is really high, odds are if he continues to pitch the way he has, his on fields numbers will even out.

Peripherals

With the evolution of Statcast, we have been able to track trends and get a better view of a player is performing under the surface with numbers. We can look at batted ball data, something that BABIP does not show us. Based on this batted ball data, we can determine expectancy stats like expected slugging (xSLG), expected batting average (xBA), and more.

This year, with data showing that the baseballs have most likely been deadened, it has skewed expectancy stats a bit. For example, there have been hits that have an xBA of 1.000, meaning that since 2015 when the data has been tracked, that was a hit 10/10 times.

Even with these numbers being skewed, these numbers can still be useful because you can see how a player is doing in comparison to the rest of the league. For example, if a player’s xBA is top 10% in the league, but his on field results of batting average is in the bottom of the league, odds lean that if they continue to swing the bat the way they are, the average will slowly rise.

The same type of numbers can be used for pitchers as well. For example if their expected ERA (xERA) is a top percentage in the league, but their actual ERA is nowhere near the top, over time odds lean that it will even out.

It should be noted that these numbers work both ways. You can also see if a player that is really hot could be coming back to earth soon.

Trends

Humans are not machines (unless you are Albert Pujols), so they will not always swing the bat the same way, or pitch the same way, so it is also smart to look at trends. For example. How has a pitcher pitched against his last 50 batters faced, vs the entire year so far.

You can look at both peripherals and on field results to get a better idea of how a player is trending.

So, that brings up the question:

Which Atlanta Braves players are showing signs of possibly bouncing back?