Could Matt Olson get even better for the Atlanta Braves?

Matt Olson has gotten off to a wonderful start in his new home with the Atlanta Braves. Could he get better?

Matt Olson has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, hitting .269/.376/.462 with 3 HR, 15 R, 14 RBI, a .370 wOBA and a 136 wRC+. He has not hit as many home runs as we would expect, but he does currently lead the league in doubles with 14.

The underlying metrics support the start at the plate:

• .299 xBA- 84th percentile
• .502 xSLG- 76th percentile
• .389 xwOBA- 86th percentile
• 10.9% barrel- 72nd percentile
• 92.2 mph average exit velocity- 90th percentile
• 47.8% hard-hit rate- 84th percentile

A strong start offensively for the new Atlanta first baseman.

He is also playing well defensively, adding in a 1 DRS and 2 OAA. The biggest issue one could find with Olson is his baserunning, which sits at a -3.0 BsR and -2.8 UBR.

A good start for the Braves first baseman. So how could he get better?

Matt Olson needs to hit it in the air

Olson is playing well but there is a way to improve his game. Lower the ground ball rate.

Here is his batted ball profile for 2022:

• Ground balls: 48.9%
• Fly balls: 18.5%
• Line drives: 23.9%
• Pop ups: 8.7%

Compared to his 2021 numbers:

• Ground balls: 40.4%
• Fly balls: 30.2%
• Line drives: 19.7%
• Pop ups: 9.7%

Career:

• Ground balls: 38.1%
• Fly balls: 29.1%
• Line drives: 22.8%
• Pop ups: 10.0%

The line drive rate is actually up slightly from 2021 and close to his career average. However, the ground balls are up by a lot at the expense of fly balls. He is still hitting plenty of line drives, which is the ideal outcome. He needs to turn a few of those ground balls into line drives or fly balls.

Now, let’s look at his numbers for each batted ball. Starting with 2022:

• Grounders: .159 AVG, .182 SLG, 1 2B, -7 wRC+
• Fly balls: .345 AVG, .862 SLG, 6 2B, 3 HR, 234 wRC+
• Liners: .833 AVG, 1.222 SLG, 7 2B, 453 wRC+

Now, for his 2021 numbers:

• Grounders: .196 AVG, .212 SLG, 3 2B, 10 wRC+
• Fly balls: .297 AVG, .964 SLG, 16 2B, 38 HR, 233 wRC+
• Liners: .819 AVG, 1.083 SLG, 16 2B, 1 HR, 413 wRC+

For good measure and consistency, his career numbers:

• • Grounders: .197 AVG, .211 SLG, 9 2B, 8 wRC+
  • Fly balls: .290 AVG, .976 SLG, 45 2B, 140 HR, 227 wRC+
  • Liners: .753 AVG, 1.006 SLG, 61 2B, 5 HR, 390 wRC+

As we see, Olson needs to get the ball in the air to be more successful. His power is neutralized by hitting it on the ground. With shifts and advanced scouting, even a hard-hit grounder will become an out more often than not.

Sure, he is not pulling the ball as much (32.6% in 2022, down from 39.5%) but he is using the big part of the field more (43.5% straight, up from 33.7%). He is strong enough to hit it out to any part of the field though, so this is no concern. Eventually, he will put one in the Chophouse.

What we are seeing as the biggest issue is his launch angle. The ground balls have seen his launch angle drop from 16.2% in 2021 to 9.4% in 2022. This is also seen in Matt Olson’s “topped balls” rate which is at 32.6%, up from 27.4%.

This explains why Matt Olson’s xSLG and barrel % are slightly lower than his other metrics. Ground balls do not travel as far and also cannot qualify as being barreled.

This is not to say that Olson has been an issue at the plate. He has been far from an issue. He has been great at the plate to begin the 2022 season! It is simply highlighting that there could be a next gear to Matt Olson.

If he can turn the grounders into more line drives and fly balls, then we will see even more doubles and probably several more home runs. Maybe even a few will finally fly into the Chop House.

Matt Olson is a phenomenal hitter. Once he begins to put the ball in the air more, we are going to see how talented of an offensive player he really is.

Once the temperature and launch angle rises, Matt Olson will see his home runs tick up. It very well may be bombs away in Atlanta, GA.