It’s become a tradition for the PECOTA projections to highly underestimate the Atlanta Braves only for the Braves to prove them wrong.
But this year the PECOTA projections are not that far off for the Atlanta Braves and have them in a close finish with the New York Mets atop the NL East.
Last year PECOTA projected the Braves to finish fourth in the NL East with 82 wins. And for a while, those projections looked smart. But, of course, an early-season projection system can’t predict what will happen over 162.
And that’s something fans have to keep in mind. While looking at preseason predictions and projections are fun, baseball is mostly impossible to predict/project.
And the PECOTA system has no human element at all, it’s just a computer-based simulation. The computer doesn’t realize that Alex Anthopoulos is the best GM in baseball and will make the right moves at the deadline to put his team over the top.
2022 PECOTA Projections — Braves vs. Mets
Some Braves fans might find it discouraging that the PECOTA projections actually have Atlanta playing well this season and winning 90-plus games.
Their projections are updating all the time, but right now they have the New York Mets winning the division with 91.2 wins just ahead of the Braves at 91.1wins.
As you can see, the projections predict a very close race between the two with the Phillies coming in third at 86 wins.
It has Miami winning 77 games and the Nationals 70.
The NL East is the only division predicted to have every team win at least 70 games, just showing you how difficult and competitive the division could be this year.
With the new playoff system, based on these projections, the Brewers and Dodgers would get the top two spots in the NL with the Mets being the third seed that would face off against the Phillies.
The Braves and Padres would meet in the Wild Card series, and that would be a really fun matchup.
Over in the American League, the Yankees and White Sox would have the two best records. Then it would be the Astros versus the Red Sox and the Blue Jays versus the Angels in the Wild Card series.
I hope they’re right about the Angels so we can see Mike Trout in the postseason.
If anything, these projections at least confirm the Braves are going into the 2022 season with a roster built to compete and win a division. That’s all you can ask for as a fan. Now it’s just time for the players to do their part.