Atlanta Braves should stabilize infield extend Dansby Swanson
The Atlanta Braves are going to arbitration with five players. Three are candidates for an extension, and one of them should get an extension now.
Alan wrote in detail about the arbitration hearings facing the Atlanta Braves in the next couple of months. Max Fried and Austin Riley’s final salary creates a baseline for future arbitration years; for Dansby Swanson, the next contract is either an extension or a free agent deal.
Swanson may reach free agency and then sign back in Atlanta, but statistically, those signing are rare, and we saw what happened this offseason.
Dansby’s been a polarizing figure since John Coppolella rushed him to the majors at least a year too soon. Selected one-one in the draft after leading Vanderbilt to the College World Series, fans placed unrealistic expectations on him from the start.
Rough beginning in Atlanta
The Atlanta Braves PR department made things worse by putting the hometown boy on every billboard, in every advertising campaign, and out front of every event, instead of allowing him to settle into his new role without all of that unnecessary pressure.
Like many rookies, pitchers had little idea how to pitch to Swanson in 2016, and he finished the year with reasonable numbers for a rookie, but 2017 was a rough year.
Although he walked at better than league average and struck out at league average, he struggled to a final line of .232/.312/.324/.646 with little power. However, there were signs he would improve.
With RISP, Swanson batted .391/.424/.427/.851, and in high-leverage situations, he was better, batting .341/.442/.432/.884, with 132 wRC+ and a .381 wOBA.
He also hit line drives at a 23% clip and swung and missed at only a 9% rate, and throughout the year, his glove was steady and dependable.
It wasn’t until 2018 that Swanson got his feet underneath him and became a more consistent player
2018 Atlanta Braves win NL East
A lot of things went Atlanta’s way on their way to winning the NL East in 2018: Kurt Suzuki found his misplaced bat, Johan Camargo found his career year, Anibal Sanchez pitched to a 2.83 ERA and 144 ERA+, Mike Foltynewicz pitched to a 2.85 ERA, 143 ERA+ and Ronald Acuna Jr. announced his arrival with a .917 OPS and a homer every five games.
Swanson continued to hit in high leverage and RISP situations and struggle the rest of the time, but he and Ozzie Albies became one of the best double-play combos in the league. Swanson finished with +9 DRS and a career-high 5.3 UZR.
A realistic look at Dansby Swanson
I’ve seen a lot of ill-informed discussion (mostly elsewhere) about what Dansby brings to the table. One comment on a post by DO’B called him a replacement-level player… one of the most inaccurate descriptions I’ve seen.
Since 2018 and ignoring the blip that made everyone look much better or much worse than they were in 2020, Dansby is a .250/.318/.429/.747 batter who’s grown into his home run power (he’s now toting a 20-25 homer bat).
After posting 1.5-1.8 fWAR in 2018 and 2019, Swanson posted 3.2 fWAR in 2021, and projections have him between 2.2 and 2.8 in 2022. The value of a win isn’t linear, though most teams seem to treat it that way.
The linear value of a win this year is somewhere between $6.86M and $8M depending on your source. Since 2018, Dansby’s been worth every penny of his contract.
If the Atlanta Braves don’t extend Swanson, they’re going to have to replace him, most likely through free agency or trade, as no one in the system looks like a candidate for the 2023 roster today.
Replacing Swanson
I grabbed a list of qualified shortstops since 2018 with 1000 PA. Here’s a list of the shortstops on the list who project as available next offseason with better numbers than Swanson.
- Trea Turner– will demand considerably more than Swanson
- Carlos Correa – if he exercises his opt-out, he would require a contract around the $30m mark.
- Xander Bogaerts – If he exercises his opt-out, he’ll want at least the $20M a year he’s giving up
Below Swanson is:
- Jonathan Villar (32),
- Jean Segura (33),
- Jose Iglesias (33), and
- Andrelton Simmons (33),
None of them offer the consistency Swanson has provided.
Trades?
I looked for viable trade candidates but didn’t find any that I felt looked like a realistic fit. Nicky Lopez (KCR) jumps off the screen, but the Royals moved him to second base and are reverting to Mondesi at SS.
KC also has Bobby Witt, but the latest interviews suggest Witt will play third unless Mondesi falls on his face. Never mind how highly the Royals value Witt.
The Guardians (of the Jake) might trade Ahmed Rosario. If so, he’s the closest thing to a replacement I see.
Atlanta would offer . . .?
Looking for a comp to Swanson isn’t easy; few middle-tier deals are current enough to consider. In a discussion before the podcast last week, Alan suggested Ryan McMahon as the best fit.
McMahon is a year younger, and while the Rockies will slot him in at third base (maybe) he’s essentially a utility infielder whose power look Coors Field related. Still, I don’t think the deal is too far off.
Swanson’s market outside of Atlanta looks like five years, $70-75M, but he’ll have to take less to stay with the Atlanta Braves.
I’d suggest five years and $60m with an option year tacked on. The structure could look like this $10.5M, $11.5M. $12.5M,12.5M, $13M, but the AAV is $12M.
That’s a wrap
The Atlanta Braves know that replacing Swanson requires more than replacing production. Swanson’s a leader on and off the field, his baseball is among the best, and he’s a winner.
When Freeman’s camp wasn’t willing to talk about a solution to keep him in Atlanta, the Braves pivoted to a player with most of the same attributes. There’s no player out there who fits that description to replace Swanson.
Next. Is the the Wright Year?. dark
Maybe a player emerges from the dust of this season, but I don’t see him.