Evaluating a tumultuous Atlanta Braves off-season: can they now compete?

With Spring games set — finally — to begin on March 18, let’s start looking at the Atlanta Braves expectations for 2022.

What follows has become an annual ritual:  a series of questions and answers about the Atlanta Braves posed by Daniel Shoptaw (twitter:  @c70), who writes about the Cardinals over at CardinalsConclave.com.

He calls this “Playing Pepper”: a tour through all MLB teams he doesn’t write about from the perspective of writers for each club.  Over the next few weeks, you may see some of the other responses to him about the Braves from other sites; today you’ll see my (lengthy) answers.

Many thanks to Daniel for the invitation to participate again this year.

The Atlanta Braves off-season

As a means of introduction, this has been an off-season unlike anything we’ve ever seen:

• Early, in-season signings for the Braves
• A quick strike in November
• A flurry of free-agent signings around the league in an effort to “beat the clock”
• 99 days of silence, acrimony, and finally… a labor deal
• Now… another week of intense trades and signings

All the while, we waited with bated breath to learn the fate of one key player.  Then the point of no return came and everything has changed.

But the bottom line now is this:  can the Atlanta Braves win again? That’s the overall subject of these questions, so let’s dig in.  Daniel asked and I’ll do my best to answer.

Question 1:  the off-season in detail

1) Not including lockout issues, tell me about Atlanta’s offseason. What did you like about it, what didn’t you like about it, was there something you were hoping for that didn’t happen?

Some things you have to be resigned to accept, and that includes the return of Marcell Ozuna.

While his chance to contribute as an offensive weapon is well known, I have long been campaigning for teams to have an “out” clause to terminate a contract for reasons of bad behavior. The Braves could not afford to become another “victim” of his actions by writing him a $53 million check to go away, so he’s back… for what it’s worth.

The quick signing of Manny Pina provides a solid backup for Travis d’Arnaud (and a nice power bat as well). This on the heels of the prior signings of d’Arnaud himself and Charlie Morton signaled early on that Alex Anthopoulos was not going to leave the core of this team without adequate support during this multi-year run.

I am disappointed at the loss of Freddie Freeman, but that may have come a bit from Freeman’s camp overplaying their hand. In the events that followed, the Braves clearly felt the need to go ahead and complete their off-season moves and not be left standing when the music stopped.

In that process, though, Anthopoulos came out with a spectacular result: not only landing the absolute best possible replacement in Matt Olson, but anchoring him to the club for at least 8 seasons.

It’s a shocking end of the Freeman era, but ensures that this core team will be competitive for at least the next 5 to 7 seasons.

The price for Olson was understandably high (and Oakland did very well there), but other than catcher Langeliers, the Braves can justify moving on without those prospects.  Of note, William Contreras is still in the organization, too.

Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh will certainly help a bullpen that found itself last fall… no reason to think that this is a weakness for the team as we thought early on in 2021.

The only disappointment, really, is that centerfield could not be properly addressed, which means Ronald Acuna will be at that position most often with Adam Duvall and Guillermo Heredia as backups. Here’s hoping that doesn’t stress Acuna’s repaired ACL.

My off-season dream scenario was to re-sign Freeman and trade for Bryan Reynolds. I can’t say that the club is any worse off given its actual new configuration.

Question 3:  what about Ronald?

3) What are the health reports on Ronald Acuna Jr. and what do you expect from him this season?

Acuna is chomping at the bit to play. If it were up to him, he says, he’d start on Opening Day.

However, he also acknowledges that it’s not up to him: the Braves training staff wants to make absolutely sure that he’s beyond 100% ready to go with no chance of reinjuring his repaired ACL.

That’s a product of his gameplay: speed bursts, cutting bases, stealing bases, and having to make outfield adjustments (which is exactly what caused the injury last June as he got out of sync while chasing down a fly ball in Miami).

Early indications were that Acuna might be held back until May. While that remains a possibility, recent comments from Brian Snitker suggest that he might use Acuna as the Braves’ DH until he’s ready to start in centerfield… and since Atlanta didn’t get a true centerfielder, that’s ultimately going to be his position this year.

I personally have some concerns from afar that base-running could cause some issues for him if he’s back too soon — particularly with things like running out an infield grounder or a sudden direction change to dive back into first base ahead of a pickoff attempt.

If he stays healthy, then we could be talking about the unleashing of a beast. With a May start, I could envision at least 30 homers and 80+ runs scored. But opening day? 40-45 homers and 100 runs (hopefully the Braves limit his steal attempts for health reasons).

The only real question I have is whether he can maintain the kind of batting average (.280-285 or better) that he’s done in the past, given the time off. But there’s zero question about his power.

Question 4:  the new top of the farm

4) Which prospect are you most excited for and when should they make their major league debut?

Until a few days ago, the answer was “Shea Langeliers“. The Braves will certainly miss him, but the A’s weren’t stupid when they cherry-picked him along with 3 others for the rights to Matt Olson’s services.

Langeliers has the potential to be Brian McCann-like, though perhaps with a lower batting average. Defensively, he could well be better. He will have a long MLB career.

That trade has significantly gutted the Braves’ farm system, but there are a few guys still worthy of a watch.

So my new number 1 is outfielder Michael Harris II. He’s the closest thing to Acuna 2.0 right now, though I don’t wish to suggest that we’re talking about that level of production… at least not yet. He should hit AA this year at his age 21 season and his numbers should be revealing of what to expect in the future — whether good or not.

It’s about time to see Harris’ power potential emerge, and that will be tested in what has been traditionally a pitcher’s league at Mississippi (the old Southern League). All of his tools score 50+ grades, a notch below where Acuna was at this stage while Harris is also a year older.

Still: that’s the makings of a solid MLB outfielder who could be ready for the show in 2023 or 2024. But no rush needed.

Of note: the prospect rankings would point to Drew Waters, but I still have grave concerns about his plate discipline.

He has great potential, but is streaky and very strikeout-prone. At this point, he might need another teaching voice before he becomes a victim of ‘prospect fatigue’.

Additional comments not supplied to Shoptaw:   given injury possibilities this season, there is a fair chance that we could see Waters in the majors this season.

If he can offensively breakout at AAA before that happens, he could end up as the Braves centerfielder.  I’m not holding my breath for that possibility, but we will watch on that point.

Question 5: Projecting the bottom line

5) How do you see 2022 shaking out for this team? What’s your expectation of where they finish?

We’re still waiting to see how things are going to shake out with the rest of the NL East clubs, but I am optimistic about the Braves’ chances to not only compete well, but also to have a chance at repeating as champions in 2022.

The Mets have clearly done a lot to upgrade and are likely the main threat to that (in the East), but at the same time, they lost some offense and are counting on both bounce-back players (Cano, Lindor) and pitchers (Scherzer, deGrom) to carry them.

The latter pair continues to be a health risk… and their team’s history hasn’t been good in that regard.

The Phillies will pitch and slug, but can’t catch the ball. The Nats are in limbo and the Marlins can’t spend enough to get free agents interested, despite having excellent young pitching.

Right now, I’d order the East as Braves / Mets / Phillies / Marlins / Nats.

Atlanta’s lineup is going to provide few places for pitchers to go to find outs and literally every position carries a 25+ homer bat.

The weakest spot for the Braves will be their 4th/5th rotation spots, but Atlanta will do what they have often done there: rotate guys in from AAA until someone proves they have earned the right to stick in the spot.

With 6-8 candidates for those roles, something will work… or the team will outslug the opposition.

Outfield defense will be iffy at times unless both Acuna and Duvall are on the field at the same time. But this team will definitely pound the baseball. The bench is solid with the addition of LHH Rosario. Outfield patrons should stay on alert throughout every game.

Overall: this feels like a 90-92 win team given the competition (and Atlanta has to face the AL West in interleague play). Also feels like the Dodgers (once again) will be the biggest competition for them in the NL.

Additional comments not supplied to Shoptaw:  let’s talk more about the Dodgers.  The euphoria over landing Freeman is overblown and ignores that they lost Corey Seager.  It also ignores that their pitching is as shaky as I’ve seen for any Dodger team since … a while.

If you doubt what I’m seeing, try searching “best lineup ever” on twitter… it’s nauseating.

Since 2010, the Dodgers had a team ERA under 3.50 on nine occasions.  Only once did that exceed 4.00 (at 4.01).  The Braves held ERA under 3.50 only 4 times (with 5 instances well above 4.00).

This could be the year that pitching undoes that club. The Braves also know that they can go toe-to-toe with them.

It may still come down to this pair of teams in the 2022 NLCS, but at full strength, this Atlanta Braves team is built to win again.