Tomahawk Take’s Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings: 15-11
Members of the Tomahawk Take crew got together to rank the top 30 prospects in the Atlanta Braves organization.
Amidst a lockout, the Tomahawk Take crew ranked their top prospects in the Atlanta Braves organization. The following contributed:
- Alan Carpenter (@Carpengui)
- Jake Mastroianni (@ShortStopBall)
- Payton Wilkerson (@pmwilkerson99)
- Thomas Ashworth (@ThomasAshworth0)
- James Kunkle (@Jimmy_Kunkle)
- Matt Melton (@Matt_Melton20)
- Sam Peebles (@SPeeblesSports)
- Andrew Cicco (@Andrewnotsicko)
- Trent Dickeson (@trenciarte)
Nine writers ranked the Braves’ prospects, and the rankings were then averaged together to get an overall ranking.
The Braves farm is not as highly ranked as it once was. Gone are the days of the Braves carrying the top farm system in baseball with prospects such as Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and many others.
Check out the previous rankings:
- Tomahawk Take Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings 30-26
- Tomahawk Take Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings 25-21
- Tomahawk Take Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings 20-16
We move into the top half of the Atlanta Braves minor league rankings! This is where we start to see a lot of talented names who should excite Braves fans for the future.
We have talked about how the Braves minor league system is not as highly ranked as previous years, but the top half of the system features plenty of talent. Including a few guys that could make an impact in Atlanta soon.
This group of five features four pitchers, and while pitching prospects are never truly safe, these guys figure to be the next wave of top pitching prospects we get excited for. A few could force their way into Atlanta as soon as this year if things break their way.
With all prospects though, it is a game of speculation. A guessing game of the impact they could provide at the next level. This range of guys features a few that could provide that impact relatively soon.
15. Spencer Schwellenbach
Personal Rank: 17
The Braves were rumored to be interested in Spencer Schwellenbach in the first round of the 2021 draft but instead went with Ryan Cusick. The Braves were thrilled when their second pick came back around and Schwellenbach was still available.
He played shortstop and pitched while at Nebraska. As a position player, he hit .284/.403/.459 6 HR, 43 R, 40 RBI, & 9 SB. He would most likely need to move off of short eventually, but the bat is certainly talented enough to make him a top draft pick.
However, the Atlanta Braves drafted Schwellenbach with the intention of using him primarily as a pitcher. Something he had never done before this past spring.
In 31 2/3 innings, Schwellenbach tossed a 0.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and struck out 34 of the 123 batters he faced (27.6% strikeout rate).
Atlanta loves the potential he possesses as an arm that does not have many miles on it. Plus, he has the ability to revert back to a position player if pitching does not work out.
Unfortunately, it will be a while before we see Schwellenbach pitch as he will need Tommy John surgery. The injury concerns are what some believe pushed him into the 2nd round. Meaning it will be some time before we see his big league debut.
A lot of scouts really love the potential Schwellenbach possesses, and think he could be special if he figures out how to pitch. He can hit 99 on his fastball, and he pairs it well with a plus slider when it’s on. His third pitch is a changeup which most believe could become another plus pitch as he gains more experience as a pitcher.
Schwellenbach gained some comparisons to another pitcher who was a primary shortstop in college with little miles on the arm in college, Jacob deGrom. That is a lofty comparison.
It may be a while before we figure out Schwellenbach’s full potential, but the hype is there that the Braves may have grabbed a good one in the 2nd round.
14. Joey Estes
Personal Rank: 9
The Atlanta Braves selected Joey Estes out of Paraclete High School in California in the 16th round of the 2019 MLB draft. They saw a lot of upside in the high school arm.
His 10 innings of rookie ball back in 2019 were spotty, with a 8.10 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 5.18 xFIP. Estes was only 17 and fresh out of high school, so these numbers do not hold much weight.
Coming back in 2021, Estes was assigned to Low-A Augusta and ended up being one of the few bright spots along with Vaughn Grissom. In his first full season, Estes started 20 games, pitched 99 innings with a 2.91 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 0.960 WHIP, 32.1% strikeout rate, and a 7.3% walk rate.
That season-long effort earned him a lot of attention from scouts who really love the profile. Augusta had a bad season overall, but Estes always provided a reason to attend games with his performances on the mound.
He throws a fastball, slider, and changeup all of which project as above-average pitches. The changeup especially impressed according to reports. It got stronger as the season went on, giving hope that Estes could feature three plus pitches in his game.
One key is Estes was confident in all his pitches and could throw all for strikes when he needed. The impressive control really has scouts hopeful that his game will continue to get stronger as he rises to the minor league ranks.
Entering just his third year of professional ball, and only twenty years of age, Estes will probably spend most of his year at High-A Rome. If he continues to show a strong feel for all three pitches, he might surpass other arms on the rankings by midseason.
I am the high man on Estes, personally ranking him 10th. I believe he will be a name we all are talking about by the end of 2022.
13. Bryce Elder
Personal Rank: 10
The Atlanta Braves 2020 draft continues to look like a phenomenal draft all around. Bryce Elder was their 5th round selection out of Texas and he quickly moved up prospect rankings.
Elder comes from an impressive Texas baseball program (check them out this year) so it should be no surprise he would make an easy transition to the pros. He started in High-A Rome and ended 2021 in Gwinnett. Here is a look at his stats across each stop:
- High-A: 9 games, 45 innings, 2.60 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 28.4% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate
- AA: 9 games, 56 innings, 3.21 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 3.17 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 27.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate
- AAA: 7 games, 36.2 innings, 2.21 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 27.2% strikeout rate, 13.6% walk rate
Consistent at every level. Combined, he started 25 games, pitched 137.2 innings, totaling a 3.07 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 27.7% strikeout rate, and a 10.2% walk rate.
There were even some rumblings that he was going to get a spot start in the majors at the end of the year. That never came, instead of going to Spencer Strider.
The one concern with Elder’s game was the walk rate. He tended to get a bit wild at times. However, every other facet of his game remained consistent at each level.
He throws four pitches, a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup, all of which are average to slightly above-average pitches. His fastball and slider are his two best pitches, but the curve and changeup play well off the others.
Elder will probably start the year back at Gwinnett but could prove to be ready for a big-league call-up by May or June. He looks like he could handle being a team’s 5th starter.
Elder’s prospect status is more for the high floor he possesses rather than an elite ceiling. He projects more as a consistent middle-of-the-order prospect, rather than a front-line guy. It would shock no one if he is a team’s 3rd or 4th starter for years.
That will limit his status as a prospect. He may never get as much hype as some of the others, but he looks to be one of the safer pitching prospects in the system. About as safe as a pitching prospect can be.
Keep an eye on Elder, he could make an impact in Atlanta in 2022.
12. Freddy Tarnok
Personal Rank: 7
The Atlanta Braves took Freddy Tarnok in the 3rd round of the 2017 MLB draft out of Riverview High School. The Braves have been very patient with Tarnok. The highly touted high school arm has methodically worked his way up the minor league ranks.
It was mixed results for a few years, but Tarnok finally showed the potential many believed was there in 2021. There was worry the 2020 Covid year would hurt Tarnok and cause him to fall down rankings, instead, he came out and put up his best year ever.
In High-A Rome, Tarnok’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, and 1.20 WHIP. Not the best at first glance, but it was mostly inflated to a weak start to the year. He finished strong in Rome, including a 40.7% strikeout rate which got him the promotion to AA.
In Mississippi is where Tarnok really shined. In 9 games, he pitched 45 innings, totaling a 2.60 ERA, 2.27 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate.
In total, Tarnok pitched 73.1 innings, with a 3.44 ERA, 1.145 WHIP, 36.5% strikeout rate, and a 9.4% walk rate. A breakout season that showed why so many are high on Tarnok’s future.
Tarnok features three pitches and the belief is all three could end up being plus offerings in the future. The fastball is strong, and he became more confident in throwing it for a strike in 2021. Being able to command the fastball will be key for Tarnok to continue making strides in his development.
He also features a curveball and changeup. The curveball plays extremely well off the fastball velocity and is a reliable secondary offering.
The biggest key in his development has been the improving changeup. Some scouting reports believe that the changeup could end up as his best pitch down the line. The fastball changeup combo holds the potential to be an elite one-two punch.
Tarnok might start the year back in Mississippi, but should be able to work his way into Gwinnett fairly quickly with a strong start.
The talent is there to be a top of the rotation pitcher. There is also reliever risk.
I come in as the highest on Freddy Tarnok. I love the potential and would not be shocked to see him getting an opportunity in Atlanta by year’s end.
11. Braden Shewmake
Personal Rank: 16
When the Atlanta Braves used their first-round pick on Braden Shewmake out of Texas A&M back in 2019, the thought would be his hit tool would carry him through the minors. Unfortunately, Shewmake struggled with the hit tool in what was a disappointing 2021 at the plate.
In 83 games at Mississippi, Shewmake hit .228/.271/.401 12 HR, 40 R, 40 RBI, 4 SB, .296 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. This includes a 4.9% walk rate & 21.8% strikeout rate. A disappointing season indeed.
Especially for a prospect whose “calling card” was thought to be his hit tool. The low walk rate becomes a bigger issue if Shewmake struggles to hit.
Looking at a silver lining, his 12 HR is the most in any season, college or professional. Mississippi is known more as a pitcher’s park, so this development was nice to see.
At 6’4, there was hope Shewmake could fill out and add more power as he aged. If the power development is real, then it will help alleviate the pain if the hit tool is not as good as originally thought.
The biggest positive of Shewmake’s 2021 season was his defense. It was thought he would need to move off of shortstop in the future, but he flashed the leather throughout the season that has the most confidence he can handle the position.
The original projection was a solid hit tool with average power for a guy who could play multiple infield positions. A super-utility player that drew a few comparisons to Ben Zobrist in his early years. Now, it looks like he could stick as a major league shortstop defensively.
Next. Watch Acuna Do This!. dark
I come in as the lowest on Shewmake. I view him as a potential major leaguer, but see him as having a limited ceiling. I do think there could be a position for him as a super-utility man in the future. Whether that is with the Braves or another organization remains to be seen.