Tomahawk Take’s Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings: 25-21

Members of the Tomahawk Take crew got together to rank the top 30 prospects in the Atlanta Braves organization.

Amidst a lockout, the Tomahawk Take crew ranked their top prospects in the Atlanta Braves organization. The following contributed:

• Alan Carpenter (@Carpengui)
• Jake Mastroianni (@ShortStopBall)
• Payton Wilkerson (@pmwilkerson99)
• Thomas Ashworth (@ThomasAshworth0)
• James Kunkle (@Jimmy_Kunkle)
• Matt Melton (@Matt_Melton20)
• Sam Peebles (@SPeeblesSports)
• Andrew Cicco (@Andrewnotsicko)
• Trent Dickeson (@Trenciarte)

Nine writers ranked the Braves’ prospects, and the rankings were then averaged together to get an overall ranking.

The Braves farm is not as highly ranked as it once was. Gone are the days of the Braves carrying the top farm system in baseball with prospects such as Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and many others.

Check out the previous rankings:

• Tomahawk Take Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings 30-26

As we move into the 26-21 range, we begin to see more consistency in the rankings. The bottom third of the Braves system is still a bit murky, but the 26-21 range features some more commonly known names.

As mentioned in the previous installment, the Braves system is not as deep as it once was. Across the league, the system is thought of as a middle-of-the-road farm. A system that is extremely top-heavy and thinner at the lower levels.

This of course has been due to the international sanctions the Braves faced in recent years. With those sanctions being over, the Braves could see the farm system start rising again in the coming years.

Even with the current system, there still could be solid talent coming out the 26-21 range. There are guys that could take a major jump come midseason with a strong 2022 campaign. There are also players that could fall off the top 30 list with a new draft class if they do not perform.

There is still some upside with these five guys, starting with number 26.

25.  Darius Vines

Personal Rank: 26

The Atlanta Braves selected Darius Vines in the 7th round of the 2019 draft. Vines had been drafted twice before. Once by the Astros in the 32nd round in 2016 and by the Cubs in the 27th round in 2017.

Third times the charm for the Atlanta Braves as they landed Vines. It has been a slower process for Vines, like most prospects the 2020 covid pandemic really hurt his development and minor league career.

He did finally figure it out in 2021 between Augusta and Rome. In 8 games at Low-A Augusta, Vines pitched 36 innings with a 2.25 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 3.23 xFIP. He struck out 33.6% of batters and only walked 7.3% of guys.

After the promotion to High-A Rome, Vines would appear in 14 games, pitching 75 innings, totaling a 3.24 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and 4.16 xFIP. This includes a 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate.

In total, Vines struck out 129 of the 443 batters faced (29.1%) showing impressive strikeout potential. He also has great control, only walking 29 batters (6.5%).

His best pitch is his changeup, it currently grades as a plus pitch and is one of the better changeups in the entire system. It will only get better too.

He also adds in a fastball and a curveball to pair with his elite changeup. The curveball is promising, but the fastball is currently inconsistent.

The fastball is the reason his HR numbers went up in Rome. If he can throw the changeup and curveball for strikes, it will help the fastball if he keeps it out of the middle of the zone. He will need to develop the fastball into a more consistent pitch to move up the system.

Entering his age 24 season, 2022 should be considered a big season for Vines. He might start back in High-A but should move to AA Mississippi quickly. If he figures out that fastball and the secondary pitches continue to impress, Vines might find himself higher in the midseason rankings.

24. Cal Conley

Personal Rank: 27

The 4th round selection in the 2021 draft out of Texas Tech, the Atlanta Braves liked the value Cal Conley brought as an already experienced college bat.

Conley headed straight to Augusta where he played in 35 games with some mixed results. Offensively, it was not the greatest. In 161 plate appearances, Conley hit .214/.304/.307 2 HR, 21 R, 9 RBI, 8 SB, .295 wOBA, and 73 wRC+.

Not the best. He did show a decent eye at the plate, walking only 8.7% of the time, and a lower strikeout rate of 20.5%.

One of the bigger issues is the 50% ground ball rate from Conley. He will need to start hitting the ball in the air more to hit for a little more power than a .093 ISO.

Conley was phenomenal at Texas Tech, so the hope is he will turn it around for the Braves.

Now it was a quick transition for Conley, so there is a possibility that after a winter with the organization he will be more comfortable at the plate in 2022.

The biggest positive for Conley was his defense last year, proving he can be versatile with either middle infield position. He showed that he can play solid defense at both spots, which will benefit him as he moves through the minors allowing him to play nearly every day.

Conley does not necessarily have one elite skill though, rather he projects as someone who will do everything really well. If he can add some power, and show he can play multiple defensive positions well, he will become more valuable in the Braves system.

The Braves can afford to be patient with Conley, and he could start 2022 back in Augusta if they chose. A quick start should see him find his way to High-A Rome. It may be a year too soon to see him in AA Mississippi in 2022, but if Conley gets going, he might force the Braves’ hand at the end of the year.

23. Justin Dean

Personal Rank: 19

A 17th round pick out of Lenoir-Rhyne University, Justin Dean has proven himself to be one of the more exciting prospects to watch on the field.

This is because he plays hard every day, with superb defense and a ton of speed on the basepaths. He also includes some sneaky pop that would shock some with his 5’6 185-pound frame.

Last year in Mississippi, Dean hit .237/.345/.364 8 HR, 60 R, 34 RBI, 29 SB, .326 wOBA, and 104 wRC+. He did struggle with strikeouts (30.3% strikeout rate), but still managed to take his walks (9.9% walk rate) when they came to him.

As mentioned, the speed is what sets Dean apart. Turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples on the bases. He also stole 29 bases in 99 games with an 82.8% success rate.

He may never be a huge power hitter, but he has enough to be a gap hitter and allow that speed to play a part of his game at the plate. If he can continue that trend, he will be just fine at the plate.

That speed, coupled with a high IQ, allows Dean to play great defense in center field. It is rare to see him misplay a ball or allow one to get behind him in the outfield.

The stellar defense and speed on the bases are what make him a fan favorite at any stop. He has a limited ceiling, but he has the toolset to be a major league player in the near future.

The biggest issue with Dean’s rise through the minors is the Braves also have Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. They take up two of the outfield spots in Gwinnett, and this means Dean remained in Mississippi to get consistent playing time.

Eventually, one of the Braves outfield prospects will need to be moved or the logjam at the top will only get worse. Dean could be the beneficiary of a big post-lockout trade.

21. AJ Smith-Shawver

Personal Rank: 21

The Braves tempted their 7th round pick in the previous draft away from Texas Tech with a $997,500 signing bonus. AJ Smith-Shawver was on his way to play both football and baseball in Lubbock before signing with the Braves, showing he is a high-caliber athlete.

He only became a full-time pitcher last year, but he intrigued everyone with his radar popping velocity that can easily get over 95 MPH. The arm strength is obvious, as he was the starting QB for his high school, throwing 29 touchdowns in his senior season.

He will need to develop a secondary pitch, and it looks like the curveball might end up being that pitch. It is one that has shown some improvement and could be a future plus pitch. If he can add in a serviceable changeup, it would help his pitching arsenal drastically.

He only pitched 8.1 innings of pro ball last year, so the 8.64 ERA is something we cannot take too seriously at this moment. He will be nineteen this year, so a year of rookie ball will do him good.

Rookie ball will allow him to work on the curveball, changeup, and harness the control of that electric fastball that will be key to him rising up rankings. Even if the ERA is not as pretty as we would like, if he can learn how to pitch in rookie ball, it will be a successful year.

Consistency is going to be key with Smith-Shawver. He is still learning how to pitch. It may be a few years before we ever see him get close to the major league level.

He does have a lot of hype surrounding him right now, as MLB named him the “best young pitching prospect” in the Braves system. A lot of praise for a name we will need to keep an eye on in the future.