Tomahawk Take’s Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings: 25-21

25.  Darius Vines

Personal Rank: 26

The Atlanta Braves selected Darius Vines in the 7th round of the 2019 draft. Vines had been drafted twice before. Once by the Astros in the 32nd round in 2016 and by the Cubs in the 27th round in 2017.

Third times the charm for the Atlanta Braves as they landed Vines. It has been a slower process for Vines, like most prospects the 2020 covid pandemic really hurt his development and minor league career.

He did finally figure it out in 2021 between Augusta and Rome. In 8 games at Low-A Augusta, Vines pitched 36 innings with a 2.25 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 3.23 xFIP. He struck out 33.6% of batters and only walked 7.3% of guys.

After the promotion to High-A Rome, Vines would appear in 14 games, pitching 75 innings, totaling a 3.24 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and 4.16 xFIP. This includes a 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate.

In total, Vines struck out 129 of the 443 batters faced (29.1%) showing impressive strikeout potential. He also has great control, only walking 29 batters (6.5%).

His best pitch is his changeup, it currently grades as a plus pitch and is one of the better changeups in the entire system. It will only get better too.

He also adds in a fastball and a curveball to pair with his elite changeup. The curveball is promising, but the fastball is currently inconsistent.

The fastball is the reason his HR numbers went up in Rome. If he can throw the changeup and curveball for strikes, it will help the fastball if he keeps it out of the middle of the zone. He will need to develop the fastball into a more consistent pitch to move up the system.

Entering his age 24 season, 2022 should be considered a big season for Vines. He might start back in High-A but should move to AA Mississippi quickly. If he figures out that fastball and the secondary pitches continue to impress, Vines might find himself higher in the midseason rankings.

24. Cal Conley

Personal Rank: 27

The 4th round selection in the 2021 draft out of Texas Tech, the Atlanta Braves liked the value Cal Conley brought as an already experienced college bat.

Conley headed straight to Augusta where he played in 35 games with some mixed results. Offensively, it was not the greatest. In 161 plate appearances, Conley hit .214/.304/.307 2 HR, 21 R, 9 RBI, 8 SB, .295 wOBA, and 73 wRC+.

Not the best. He did show a decent eye at the plate, walking only 8.7% of the time, and a lower strikeout rate of 20.5%.

One of the bigger issues is the 50% ground ball rate from Conley. He will need to start hitting the ball in the air more to hit for a little more power than a .093 ISO.

Conley was phenomenal at Texas Tech, so the hope is he will turn it around for the Braves.

Now it was a quick transition for Conley, so there is a possibility that after a winter with the organization he will be more comfortable at the plate in 2022.

The biggest positive for Conley was his defense last year, proving he can be versatile with either middle infield position. He showed that he can play solid defense at both spots, which will benefit him as he moves through the minors allowing him to play nearly every day.

Conley does not necessarily have one elite skill though, rather he projects as someone who will do everything really well. If he can add some power, and show he can play multiple defensive positions well, he will become more valuable in the Braves system.

The Braves can afford to be patient with Conley, and he could start 2022 back in Augusta if they chose. A quick start should see him find his way to High-A Rome. It may be a year too soon to see him in AA Mississippi in 2022, but if Conley gets going, he might force the Braves’ hand at the end of the year.

23. Justin Dean

Personal Rank: 19

A 17th round pick out of Lenoir-Rhyne University, Justin Dean has proven himself to be one of the more exciting prospects to watch on the field.

This is because he plays hard every day, with superb defense and a ton of speed on the basepaths. He also includes some sneaky pop that would shock some with his 5’6 185-pound frame.

Last year in Mississippi, Dean hit .237/.345/.364 8 HR, 60 R, 34 RBI, 29 SB, .326 wOBA, and 104 wRC+. He did struggle with strikeouts (30.3% strikeout rate), but still managed to take his walks (9.9% walk rate) when they came to him.

As mentioned, the speed is what sets Dean apart. Turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples on the bases. He also stole 29 bases in 99 games with an 82.8% success rate.

He may never be a huge power hitter, but he has enough to be a gap hitter and allow that speed to play a part of his game at the plate. If he can continue that trend, he will be just fine at the plate.

That speed, coupled with a high IQ, allows Dean to play great defense in center field. It is rare to see him misplay a ball or allow one to get behind him in the outfield.

The stellar defense and speed on the bases are what make him a fan favorite at any stop. He has a limited ceiling, but he has the toolset to be a major league player in the near future.

The biggest issue with Dean’s rise through the minors is the Braves also have Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. They take up two of the outfield spots in Gwinnett, and this means Dean remained in Mississippi to get consistent playing time.

Eventually, one of the Braves outfield prospects will need to be moved or the logjam at the top will only get worse. Dean could be the beneficiary of a big post-lockout trade.

22. Makhi Backstrom

Personal Rank: 25

When the Atlanta Braves drafted Makhi Backstrom in the 18th round of the 2019 draft out of Junipero Sierra High School in California, they did so knowing Backstrom might opt for college instead.

They were pleasantly surprised that Backstrom instead signed with the organization. Backstrom is still an extremely raw prospect. His calling card is the massive raw power he possesses. When he gets ahold of one, it goes a long way.

Like most young sluggers, he struggles with the strikeout. That was evident this year as he spent 2021 at the rookie level. In 41 games, he hit .172/.301/.320 3 HR, 19 R, 12 RBI, 1 SB, .303 wOBA, and 73 wRC+.

A 38.4% strikeout rate shows the issue with Backstrom’s hit tool. He must be able to make contact if he is going to hit it a long way.

He did walk in 15.1% of his plate appearances, which is promising. If he can show a good feel for the plate, the hope is there that he can eventually fix his hit tool issues.

The offensive profile mimics a young Joey Gallo to an extent.

Backstrom does show a strong defensive prowess at first base, which gives hope that he can be a plus defender at the position. However, he only projects as a first baseman.

Backstrom benefits from the implementation of the universal DH, as that will give him more room to fight his way onto a major league roster in the future. If he can develop the hit tool, and the power comes around like most believe, he will be an exciting power bat soon.

Backstrom still has a lot of work to do. He is only 20, so the Braves can be patient with the young slugger. A full year in Augusta should tell us a lot about what Backstrom’s future holds and will impact where he finds himself on the rankings come midseason.

21. AJ Smith-Shawver

Personal Rank: 21

The Braves tempted their 7th round pick in the previous draft away from Texas Tech with a $997,500 signing bonus. AJ Smith-Shawver was on his way to play both football and baseball in Lubbock before signing with the Braves, showing he is a high-caliber athlete.

He only became a full-time pitcher last year, but he intrigued everyone with his radar popping velocity that can easily get over 95 MPH. The arm strength is obvious, as he was the starting QB for his high school, throwing 29 touchdowns in his senior season.

He will need to develop a secondary pitch, and it looks like the curveball might end up being that pitch. It is one that has shown some improvement and could be a future plus pitch. If he can add in a serviceable changeup, it would help his pitching arsenal drastically.

He only pitched 8.1 innings of pro ball last year, so the 8.64 ERA is something we cannot take too seriously at this moment. He will be nineteen this year, so a year of rookie ball will do him good.

Rookie ball will allow him to work on the curveball, changeup, and harness the control of that electric fastball that will be key to him rising up rankings. Even if the ERA is not as pretty as we would like, if he can learn how to pitch in rookie ball, it will be a successful year.

Consistency is going to be key with Smith-Shawver. He is still learning how to pitch. It may be a few years before we ever see him get close to the major league level.

He does have a lot of hype surrounding him right now, as MLB named him the “best young pitching prospect” in the Braves system. A lot of praise for a name we will need to keep an eye on in the future.