Atlanta Braves Prospects: Freddy Tarnok Scouting Report
The Atlanta Braves have a ton of starting pitching depth in the minors, and perhaps the one with the most upside is Freddy Tarnok.
When the Atlanta Braves began their rebuild they focussed on stockpiling starting pitching.
They did so knowing not all of them would pan out, but they played the percentages knowing some would and they’ve been rewarded with frontline starters like Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson.
But it’s not over yet as they have eight more starting pitching prospects in their top 15 with six of them knocking on the door of the big leagues.
Freddy Tarnok isn’t one of those knocking on the door just yet, but he could be soon, and he just might have the most upside of them all.
The Braves went well above the 2017 third-round draft slot value of $709,000 to sign Tarnok for $1.45 million banking on the potential of the lanky 6-foot-3 right-hander.
In that 2017 season, he posted a 2.57 ERA in 8 starts with 10 strikeouts in 14 innings. Then at Single-A in 2018 he posted a 3.96 ERA in 77.1 innings with 83 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.435 with a high BB/9 of 4.8.
Battling through injuries in 2019, he posted a 4.75 ERA in 106 innings (22 starts) with 91 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.368.
He really took major strides forward in 2021 with a 3.68 ERA between High-A and Double-A and a WHIP of 1.145 with a K/9 of 13.4 and a BB/9 of 3.4.
And what has a lot of Braves fans really excited is that he started to take off in the second half of the season when he moved up to Double-A.
You have to keep in mind, he did not pitch much in high school, so he’s still learning the craft. That’s why you can still dream on his potential at this point.
Freddy Tarnok — The Pitch Mix
Fastball (93-96), curveball (77-81), change-up (82-85), slider (78-80)
What really has me excited about Freddy Tarnok is that he already has two above-average pitches in his fastball and curveball.
The fastball sits in the mid-90s and has a ton of life, while his curveball has some really sharp biting action on it that constantly freezes hitters or gets them on top of the baseball.
I was also impressed with his ability to consistently throw both of those pitches for strikes.
However, I’d say he has more control than command — something he’ll certainly need to tighten up before getting to the big leagues.
A change-up is his third pitch and it’s an average offering but a pitch that could be improved.
I watched three or four starts and I honestly don’t know if I ever saw a slider (hard to tell without radar guns on the broadcast). But that’s a pitch in his back pocket he can continue to develop.
Freddy Tarnok — The Delivery
It’s a very athletic 6-foot-3 frame at 185 pounds. It’s possible he’s able to add a little more bulk but it’s not a necessity with him.
The arm action is very long — somewhat similar to Madison Bumgarner but from the right side. And Tarnok pitches exclusively from the stretch.
I do worry about him being able to consistently repeat that delivery with such a long arm path, which is why his BB/9 will likely always be around 3 or 4.
Freddy Tarnok — The Ceiling and Projection
I’m trying not to get too overhyped on Tarnok because he still has a lot to learn and a lot to prove at the minor league level.
However, I do think he has the ceiling of a number two starter. Someone who could post a 3.25-3.50 ERA someday.
As mentioned, he already has two plus pitches right now. Assuming he continues to throw strikes at the big league level, as he is right now, I’d project him to be a number three or four starter with an ERA around 3.8-4.2 with a BB/9 of 3.5, a K/9 of 10, and a WHIP of 1.30.
But again, I believe he has the potential to be even better than that as he continues to grow.
Freddy Tarnok — The Timetable
Just like I said with Joey Estes, there is absolutely no reason to rush Freddy Tarnok. I’d send him right back to Double-A to start 2022 and let him stay there the entire season.
Maybe you give him a late call-up to Triple-A, or perhaps you even give him a call-up to the big leagues as a reliever to end the season.
But I would not really expect Tarnok to get a shot as a starter in the big leagues until the second half of 2023.
I know he’s on the 40-man roster and that might put pressure on the Braves to get him to the big leagues. But he’s still a raw talent and we’ve only seen the potential of that talent in half a season.
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Let him continue to grow and work on his game at the minors in 2022. Don’t hurt his development by rushing him to the big leagues when the Braves have several other starters ahead of him ready for a chance.