Atlanta Braves continue to win despite the umpires… all of them

It might be one thing if the umpires favored each playoff team at roughly the same rate.  But the Atlanta Braves continue to draw the short straw nearly every time.

You may or may not know about the UmpireScorecards (@UmpScorecards) twitter account.  You therefore may or may not be aware of what their data is showing about the treatment of the Atlanta Braves throughout the playoffs.

A typical scorecard of theirs is nicely detailed and based on MLB data, including the following:

• name of the home plate umpire
• A percentage assessment of both that umpire’s “overall accuracy” and “overall consistency”
• A percentage breakdown of strike zone accuracy for pitches both inside and outside of the standard strike zone.
• A summary of missed calls and an itemized list of the “worst” missed calls.
• Finally… and perhaps most controversially… an assessment on the equivalent amount of runs (+/-) each team might have gained or lost as a result of poor calls from behind the plate.

Here is a tweet of one of those assessment cards, this from World Series Game 1:

But please allow me to roll back the clock a bit and reveal the conclusions reached for all games that the Atlanta Braves have played this post-season:

• vs. BREWERS, Game 1.  Mike Estabrook.  +0.75 runs for Milwaukee.
• vs. BREWERS, Game 2.  Mike Muchlinski.  +0.09 runs for Milwaukee.
  • This was the best-called game of all (96% accuracy, 98% consistency, and very balanced result)
• vs. BREWERS, Game 3.  Alfonso Marquez.  +0.40 runs for Milwaukee.
  • This was the best-called game in terms of accuracy and consistency (97%/99%), but there were some key calls going Milwaukee’s way that skewed the overall result.
  • vs. BREWERS, Game 4.  Tony Randasso.  +1.04 runs for Atlanta.
    • This was one of the worst-called games (91%/95%).  Yes, Atlanta benefited, but there were numerous bad calls both ways… all day long.
    • vs. DODGERS, Game 1.  Tripp Gibson.  +0.3 runs for Los Angeles.
      • Very good overall (96%/99%), with minimal overall impact.
      • vs. DODGERS, Game 2.  Jordan Baker.  +0.31 runs for Los Angeles.
        • Accuracy not as good, but he picked his spots, and the Braves weren’t hurt that badly.
        • vs. DODGERS, Game 3.  Jerry Meals.  +0.64 runs for Los Angeles.
          • The Braves were hurt by half a run here… that could have changed the overcome.
          • vs. DODGERS, Game 4.  James Hoye.  +0.21 runs for Los Angeles.
            • Not a particularly well-called game, though the overall skew was relatively small in Atlanta’s blowout game.
            • vs. DODGERS, Game 5.  Mark Carlson.  +0.04 runs for Los Angeles.
              • Not much pressure here as LA blew out Atlanta 11-2, and the call skew was actually very well balanced … when it didn’t really matter.
              • vs. DODGERS, Game 6.  Lance Barksdale.  +1.02 runs for Los Angeles.
                • This game mattered, and Barksdale was highly inconsistent (92%) with his own established zone.  The Braves managed to overcome him anyway.
                • vs. ASTROS, Game 1.  Chris Conroy.  +1.62 runs for Houston.
                  • The worse skew of any playoff game… at least any involving the Braves.  Maybe this is why Atlanta didn’t end up with double-digit runs?
                  • Also of note, the accuracy and consistency numbers (95%/96%) suggest that most blown calls were in favor of Houston.
                  • vs. ASTROS, Game 2.  Ron Kulpa.  +0.26 runs for Houston.
                    • Perfect consistency, but again, most of the missed calls went Houston’s way.
                    • vs. ASTROS, Game 3.  Tom Hallion.  +0.21 runs for Houston.
                      • Close to balanced and well-called overall, but once again, the missed calls lean toward the Braves’ opponent.

                      I will say this:  it’s not like Tom Hallion (for example) seems to be favoring the Astros in particular.

                      In his October 10 game between the White Sox and the Astros (ALDS Game 3), the conclusion from UmpScorecards was that the Southsiders had been favored by 1.23 runs over Houston in a 12-6 blow-out of the Astros.

                      That said, the Atlanta Braves have now played 13 post-season games, and the umpires seem to have favored them only once.

                      Assuming everything should be perfectly balanced, the odds of this happening are approximately 0.16% or 1 chance in 630 such seasons.

                      Whether this discrepancy is conscious or not, maybe MLB should look a little closer at this??