Atlanta Braves World Series: Keys To Success
By Sam Peebles
What sticks out for this Atlanta Braves team?
The Atlanta Braves offense is a playoff-worthy offense, but this is not what sticks out about this matchup. The rotation has carried this team through the playoffs. Fortunately for the Braves, and unfortunately for all their opponents, teams do not need a 5-man rotation like they do in the regular season.
As most of the baseball world knows by now, the Atlanta Braves have a formidable trio in Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson. They have not been perfect, with Fried giving up 5 earned runs in his last start, Morton giving up 6 walks and Anderson only lasting 3 innings in their first starts vs LA.
However, other than those hiccups, they have been fantastic, especially at preventing runs. Earned Run Average Adjusted (ERA)+ measure how well pitchers have prevented runs adjusted across the entire, with 100 being league average.
Anderson has been 24% better than league average at 124 ERA+, Morton has a 132 ERA+, and Fried a 145 ERA+ for the regular season. Keep in mind that all 3 of these pitchers had slumps at some point in the season, yet still dominated.
One area that really sticks out is other than that poor outing against the Dodgers in the NLCS, since August 14th, Fried has averaged 7 innings per game, having never reaching 100 pitches, and giving up 3 runs only twice.
Since that same date, Morton has pitched more than 100 pitches only twice, and more than 2 runs only twice.
Anderson was out for most of July and August, but when he came back on August 29th, he was not lagging far behind the other 2, with a 3.61 ERA and never pitching more than 100 innings.
What about the Astros?
The Astros have not had that luxury. Justin Verlander has been out the entire year, Zach Greinke has, by most measures, had his worst year since 2005.
Greinke has underperformed to his standards so much that the Astros have only used him in 2.1 innings this postseason. To top things off, arguably their best starter in Lance McCullers Jr. is likely done for the year.
This means that they will have to rely heavily on Luis Garcia, and Framber Valdez. Both pitchers have been excellent in their own right.
Garcia had a 2.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) year with an ERA+ of 130, and Valdez also had 2.4 WAR with an ERA+ of 137. However, that is only 2 rotation arms. That can end up being an issue for the Astros.
The Astros also have some depth in the rotation with Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi, but both have them have been being used as bullpen pieces/openers in the playoffs.