The Atlanta Braves prevailed and are now off the face one of the best teams in MLB in the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS
For the second year in a row, the Atlanta Braves will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. In 2020, the Braves came within 2 runs of facing the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series. Will the Braves get revenge and make it past the Dodgers this time?
Even though many writers and experts had the Brewers beating the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, we explored how the Atlanta Braves had the slight advantage, which ended up resulting in them winning.
Is it possible that the Atlanta Braves even have a chance to beat the Dodgers?
Much like with the Brewers, a team’s record does not tell the entire story. After all, both the Braves and the Dodgers will enter the NLCS with a 0-0 record.
The Dodgers had an insanely good record of 106-56, yet still came in second place to the Giants in the standings. Ultimately, that did not matter since they prevailed against them in the NLDS by 1 run in the final game.
If we break down their overall record, it paints an interesting story. At home, the Dodgers had an insanely good winning percentage of .716. That means if they would have played all their games at home, they would have had a record of 116-46.
They had an away winning percentage of .593, which would still be a very good 96-66.
In the first half of the season, the Dodgers had a .615 winning percentage, and a .704 in the second half. Unfortunately for the Atlanta Braves, it shows the Dodgers got better as the season progressed.
The Atlanta Braves have some impressive record splits as well
Obviously, if we were to just compare records, it would not really be a debate on who has the overall advantage.
It is important to look at the second half record for teams. This is because teams make adjustments as time goes on by figuring out holes, trimming the fat in the bullpen, gaining players via trades, waivers, etc., and losing players to injury.
Like the Dodgers, the Braves improved over the second half. In the first half, the Braves had a terrible .494 winning percentage. If they would have played at that rate all year long, they would have ended with an 80-82 record.
The second half shows an entirely different team. The Braves boasted a .611 winning percentage. Had they played at that rate for an entire season, their record would have been 99-63.
A first half team many times is much different than a second half team.
The Dodgers had a much better record at home than away. Interestingly, the Atlanta Braves had a better record away than at home (.568 to .525).
There is much more to how teams match up than just their overall records
Both the Dodgers and Braves were regular season power houses, regardless of records.
The Dodgers had the best run differential in the National League with a +269. The Braves had the 3rd best at +134. The Dodgers and Braves were also 1st and 3rd respectively in runs scored. With runs against, the were 1st and 4th respectively.
As we discussed in the NLDS breakdown vs the Brewers, not all schedules are equal.
Sticking with the “what have you done for me lately” ideology, we can look at the second half and see what those records show us. Since both teams made major additions at the trade deadline, let’s look at what they have done since then.
Against teams with losing records, the Braves had a record of 25-9. Against teams with a winning record, the Braves were 12-9.
The Dodgers were 27-6 against teams with a losing record, and 14-7 against teams with a winning record, including a sweep of Atlanta.
How did the Atlanta Braves do against the Dodgers in 2021?
These two teams only faced each other 6 times in 2021, with the Dodgers taking 4 out of 6. With the sample size being so small, it is hard to gauge how well these two teams will do against each other based on just the record, so let’s dig into the numbers.
The Braves were 2-1 at home vs the Dodgers in the first half, scoring 15 runs and giving up 16. In the second half, the Braves were 0-3 while playing in Los Angeles, scoring 8 runs and giving up 12.
If we do the math, the Braves scored 3.83 runs per game, and the Dodgers scored 4.33. However, like stated earlier, the odds are that these numbers will be much different as the teams have changed over time.
What to expect in this series
In the regular season, teams regularly deploy a 5-man or 6-man rotation. In the playoffs, it is typically a 3-man rotation with the possibility of a bullpen game. Because of this, it makes sense to look at the top 3 starting pitchers to get a good idea of what to expect.
· Dodgers top 3 (Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urias) vs the Braves – 2.7 ERA
· Braves top 3 (Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson) vs the Dodgers – 3.29 ERA
As can be seen, this is close. Obviously, again, small sample size, but this can be encouraging.
The rotation is obviously only part of the equation. The Braves have had their ups and downs with their bullpen, but were excellent in the NLDS, as Trent Dickeson points out. Only 2 earned runs were given up, and they were by Huascar Ynoa, who was not a bullpen arm this year in the regular season.
The Dodgers weren’t much worse, having given up only 4 earned runs in 5 games against the Giants in their own NLDS.
For the regular season, the Dodgers have 5 primarily relief arms that were on their NLDS roster that had a 144 ERA+ or better. The Braves had 3 pitchers with such success (Jesse Chavez, Luke Jackson, and Tyler Matzek).
From an overarching standpoint it would seem that the Dodgers have a clear advantage with the Bullpen, and the rotation.
However, the underlying metrics show that the Braves having fighting chance.
According to David Adler, here are how the teams hit against each other:
· Braves vs. Dodgers’ Top 3 – .302 xwOBA, .421 SLG%
· Dodgers vs. Braves’ top 3 – .296 xwOBA, .365 xSLG%
At these current rates, it actually shows that the Braves could have the slight advantage with their top three rotation, and there is a reason why.
The Braves had an advantage against the Brewers because of the curveball. The Brewers could not hit curveballs well, and Morton and Fried excel at throwing the curve.
Against the Dodgers, it is a similar situation. The Braves excel at hitting the four-seam fastballs. In fact, they have a .366 xwOBA against them, which is good for 4th in all of MLB. They also hit 107 home runs against them, which is 2nd in all of MLB.
The Dodgers love throwing four-seam fastballs. They throw them 42% of the time, which is 3rd highest in MLB
What is the x-factor for the Atlanta Braves?
Ian Anderson has some serious home-road splits.
Home:
· 1.125 WHIP
· 2.59 SO/W ratio
· 70 OPS+ against
Away:
· 1.328
· 2.16 SO/W ratio
· 97 OPS+ against
With the Atlanta Braves having potentially 4 games at home due to home field advantage, this could be a deciding factor if Brian Snitker chooses to give Ian Anderson 2 starts at home.
There is no doubt that the Dodgers are a formidable opponent, but there is absolutely some hope for the Atlanta Braves in this series.