One way the Atlanta Braves can exploit the Brewers in the NLDS
The Atlanta Braves are set to begin their October journey on Friday in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers.
It’s been four days without Atlanta Braves baseball, providing fans a painfully long wait to dissect this division series matchup with the NL Central-winning Milwaukee Brewers from just about every angle imaginable.
When stacking these two teams up, much of the analysis is focused on two areas: the starting pitching, considered by most to be a Brewers advantage, or the lineup, where the Braves are said to have the edge.
Sure, there are countless other intangibles at play.
Braves fans would mention the team’s hot play over the season’s last month, while Milwaukee fans would point to their home-field advantage.
One thing can (probably) be agreed upon – this series figures to be tight, especially given the respective starting pitching.
And what aspect of the game is magnified in a tight series?
You got it: the bullpen.
Yep. “Bullpen”. The word inspires confidence in some and nightmares in others, but its role in a 5-game playoff series cannot be understated.
When matching up the ‘pens, let’s get a few things established.
1. The best reliever for either team is Josh Hader, and it’s not close
This one is easy.
Pick any metric you want: Josh Hader is elite on any level.
Whether it’s his microscopic 1.23 ERA, his eye-popping 15.65 K/9 innings, or his impressive 0.84 WHIP, it’s quite simple.
If the game gets to the 9th and the Brewers have the lead, it’s over.
The Atlanta Braves simply won’t win a “battle of the closers,” so if that’s what one is banking on, don’t.
Speaking of the Braves’ 9th inning man…
2. Will Smith provides reason for concern in the 9th
Will Smith has turned into somewhat of a polarizing figure for the Atlanta Braves in their 2021 campaign.
On the one hand, his role, simply put, is to accumulate as many saves for Braves’ victories as he can.
If one assesses Smith purely in the context of that counting metric, he’s actually been pretty good. After all, his 37 saves rank 4th among all closers in baseball.
But it’s the adventure in getting to that point that provides reason for concern. Atlanta Braves’ 9th innings have often been a thrill ride consisting of lots of baserunners and loud outs.
So, the Brewers have an elite closer, while the Braves’ closer is about as stable as a three-legged table being set with a Thanksgiving feast.
Where’s the hope if you’re Atlanta? Where in the world will you steal enough runs against this stingy Brewers’ staff?
There is one area that provides a statistical advantage to Atlanta.
The Braves match up well to exploit the Brewers’ middle relief.
No, it’s not a slam dunk, by any means.
But in a comprehensive analysis of the numbers in how these two teams stack up for a postseason series, a lopsided mismatch such as this will make one pause.
The Braves have based their offense around the home run. Per FanGraphs, they’ve hit the 3rd most dingers of any team in baseball, while their team ISO (isolated power) is tied for 2nd in MLB.
Why is the Braves’ penchant for round-trippers bad news for the Brew Crew? The Milwaukee bullpen has been one of baseball’s most home run-prone relief units.
According to FanGraphs, Brewers’ relievers compiled a HR/9 (home run rate per nine innings) of 1.39 in the regular season, tied for 4th worst in all of baseball (for the reference of Braves’ fans, the Brewers rank directly between the hapless bullpens of Philadelphia and Washington in this category).
Even when adjusting for timing in the “what have you done for me lately” context, Brewers’ relievers are still giving up the home run at a high rate in the second half, with the bullpen again ranking 4th worst in HR/9 at an even higher rate of 1.53.
More specifically in the second half, the biggest culprits for Milwaukee with regards to HR/9 have been Miguel Sanchez (1.53), Hunter Strickland (1.44), Aaron Ashby (1.35), Brad Boxberger (1.33), and Jake Cousins (1.31).
(For comparison’s sake, the only two relievers in Atlanta’s current bullpen with a HR/9 rate of 1.30 or higher in the second half are Richard Rodriguez and, you guessed it, Will Smith).
TomahawkTake’s Jake Mastroianni touched on the importance of the middle-relief innings when outlining the Atlanta Braves’ keys to beating Milwaukee, and a deeper look at the numbers here supports the same.
So, who are some of the Braves hitters to watch for in the middle innings?
The Atlanta Braves have quite a few players capable of a game-changing home run against the vulnerable Milwaukee middle relievers.
As stated previously, the Atlanta Braves are one of the most dynamic power-hitting teams in baseball.
Most teams have to hope that the “right guys” come up at the “right time” in a playoff series.
However, the Braves truly do have one of those lineups one through eight where any of the hitters can go deep in a given moment.
Some, however, have a tendency for the long ball in those middle innings more so than others.
Whether it’s the ability to make a quick adjustment to a new pitcher, having a few prior at-bats to sharpen timing, or thriving in a mid-to-late game situation, these guys get it done against middle relief.
Jorge Soler has put up a .560 slugging percentage in the 7th inning of games this year, his highest of any inning.
Chalk Adam Duvall as a guy who loves facing middle relievers, too. Of his 38 homers on the year, 15 have taken place in the 6th-8th innings.
Same for Dansby Swanson, who has accounted for 12 of his 27 home runs in innings 6-8 – again – mostly versus middle relievers. In fact, Swanson’s single highest home run total by inning is the 6th, where he’s accumulated 7 home runs on the season.
The Atlanta Braves are sure to have tough sledding against the Brewers’ mighty starters, and Josh Hader might very well see multiple innings of relief to stymie the Braves’ power.
Next. NLDS Staff Predictions. dark
But if there’s an advantageous window for Atlanta to collect runs versus this tough staff, it’s against Milwaukee’s middle relief. And it’s via the home run ball, something the Atlanta Braves are known for in 2021.