One way the Atlanta Braves can exploit the Brewers in the NLDS
The Atlanta Braves are set to begin their October journey on Friday in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers.
It’s been four days without Atlanta Braves baseball, providing fans a painfully long wait to dissect this division series matchup with the NL Central-winning Milwaukee Brewers from just about every angle imaginable.
When stacking these two teams up, much of the analysis is focused on two areas: the starting pitching, considered by most to be a Brewers advantage, or the lineup, where the Braves are said to have the edge.
Sure, there are countless other intangibles at play.
Braves fans would mention the team’s hot play over the season’s last month, while Milwaukee fans would point to their home-field advantage.
One thing can (probably) be agreed upon – this series figures to be tight, especially given the respective starting pitching.
And what aspect of the game is magnified in a tight series?
You got it: the bullpen.
Yep. “Bullpen”. The word inspires confidence in some and nightmares in others, but its role in a 5-game playoff series cannot be understated.
When matching up the ‘pens, let’s get a few things established.
1. The best reliever for either team is Josh Hader, and it’s not close
This one is easy.
Pick any metric you want: Josh Hader is elite on any level.
Whether it’s his microscopic 1.23 ERA, his eye-popping 15.65 K/9 innings, or his impressive 0.84 WHIP, it’s quite simple.
If the game gets to the 9th and the Brewers have the lead, it’s over.
The Atlanta Braves simply won’t win a “battle of the closers,” so if that’s what one is banking on, don’t.
Speaking of the Braves’ 9th inning man…
2. Will Smith provides reason for concern in the 9th
Will Smith has turned into somewhat of a polarizing figure for the Atlanta Braves in their 2021 campaign.
On the one hand, his role, simply put, is to accumulate as many saves for Braves’ victories as he can.
If one assesses Smith purely in the context of that counting metric, he’s actually been pretty good. After all, his 37 saves rank 4th among all closers in baseball.
But it’s the adventure in getting to that point that provides reason for concern. Atlanta Braves’ 9th innings have often been a thrill ride consisting of lots of baserunners and loud outs.
So, the Brewers have an elite closer, while the Braves’ closer is about as stable as a three-legged table being set with a Thanksgiving feast.
Where’s the hope if you’re Atlanta? Where in the world will you steal enough runs against this stingy Brewers’ staff?
There is one area that provides a statistical advantage to Atlanta.