Atlanta Braves face the Milwaukee Brewers: Who Has The Advantage?

The Atlanta Braves have persevered through many obstacles and have secured their 4th straight National League East crown

Although it seemed unlikely that the Atlanta Braves would even make the playoffs throughout a large part of the season, not getting over the .500 mark for the first time till August 5th, they are off the face the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS.

In a moment that should hopefully get some media love, on the year that the great Hank Aaron passed, the two cities he played for in his storied career will meet in the playoffs.

Do the Atlanta Braves or the Milwaukee Brewers have the advantage?

At a very high-level view, it would seem that the Brewers have the upper hand in this matchup. They have a higher seed, and have won 7 more games (although the Braves only played 161 games).

However, there are quite a few areas that point in the Atlanta Braves favor. Not all schedules are created equal, and in a sport with typically 162 games, it truly is about the journey, and not just the destination. After all, both teams are 0-0 going into this matchup.

Both teams had very solid regular seasons in terms of run differential

The Atlanta Braves ended their season with a run differential of +134, good for 3rd in the NL. The Brewers were right behind them with a +115, which was 4th best in the NL. Interestingly, based on Pythagorean expected win/loss algorithm, the Braves should have had 2 more wins than the Brewers.

To be fair, you have to take run differentials with a grain of salt since the Atlanta Braves had some moments of extreme streakiness.

These run differentials were due to the Atlanta Braves being 3rd in the NL in scoring, and 4th in the NL at preventing runs.

The Brewers were 6th in the NL in scoring, and 3rd at preventing them.

Interestingly, if we look at weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) the Braves were 5th in the NL, and the Brewers were 11th. If we look at expected fielding independent fielding (xFIP), which takes out the defense and just looks at pitching, the Brewers are 1st in the NL, and the Braves are 7th.

It is important to note that defense does matter. In fact, the Braves committed their fewest errors in a standard regular season ever this year (although errors should definitely not be the only way to measure defense). As far as Defensive Runs Saved goes, the Brewers and Braves were 4th and 5th in the NL respectively.

But there’s much more…

What have you done for me lately?

Looking at a full season — and the statistics that go along with it — can be a fun exercise. However, the reality is that both of these teams are very different than what they were at the start of the 2021 season. Injuries, trade acquisitions, trimming the fat by determining which bullpen arms were going to cut it, are just some areas to consider.

In the last 72 games of the year, the Atlanta Braves scored 5.14 runs per game, which was an improvement over their first half considering they scored 4.9 runs per game for the entire season.

As far as runs allowed, the Atlanta Braves gave up 4.07 per game the entire season, but have been much better at 3.54 in the second half.

Like the Braves, the Brewers improved offensively as well. They scored 4.55 runs per game for the entire season, but 4.91 during the second half.

The Brewers pitching staff stayed pretty consistent throughout the entire year, giving up 3.84 runs per game for the entire season, and improving slightly in the second half with 3.81.

So, just looking at the second half, the Braves scored more (5.14 to 4.91), and prevented runs better (3.54 to 3.81), than the Brewers did.

Does this mean the Atlanta Braves have the advantage?

As stated earlier, not all schedules are the same. However, oddly enough, the Braves and Brewers played the exact same number of games against opponents with winning records at 68 apiece. The Braves were 31-37, while the Brewers were 32-36.

To be fair, we should look at how well they have done lately in this category to see how it translates to the runs scored and given up.

In the second half, the Atlanta Braves were 10-13 against teams who ended the season with a winning record. The Brewers did better in this category with an 18-17 record (although it should be noted, they were 1-10 in their last 11 games).