The Atlanta Braves pulverized Phillies fan’s hopes with a gigantic win in game 2 of an important series. A win Thursday evening would gain Atlanta their 4th consecutive NL East title.
There’s an air of excitement brewing as the Atlanta Braves have the opportunity to clinch their 4th division title in 4 years. Their magic number sits at 1 game with a 4.5 game lead over Philly.
So, even if Atlanta were to lose tonight, they’d have three more chances to clinch the division with either a Braves win or Phillies loss in that time frame.
This would also mean that Atlanta would not have to make up their game with the Rockies and start preparing for an important playoff run. This team feels like it has the potential to go all the way but you have to punch your ticket before finding out that possibility.
With the way this team has been playing lately, I have a very good feeling about our chances to clinch the division tonight.
Braves-Phillies Game Time?
The first pitch of the potential division-clinching game is scheduled for 7:20 EST at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
Braves and Phillies TV broadcasts?
Thursday’s game can be seen locally on Bally Sports South or NBC Sports Philadelphia. The game will also be broadcast nationally on MLB Network.
What are Braves vs. Phillies Odds on Wednesday?
WynnBet has the Braves as a -150 favorite (bet $150 to win $100) for Thursday night’s series finale with the Phillies as -130 underdogs (bet $100 to win $130).
The over-under for runs is set at 8-1/2. If you go with the ‘under’, $100 will get you $100. The over requires $120 to win $100.
If you want to be more specific, the Braves scoring baseline is set to 4.5: -120 for the over; -110 for the under.
Starting Pitchers:
Atlanta Braves: Ian Anderson
Ian Anderson came into the 2021 season following an impressive start to his career with the Braves in 2020.
Anderson has struggled a bit at times this season and that was expected. He was going to run into growing pains at some point.
For the season, Anderson is 8-5 and has earned an ERA of 3.60 including 50 walks and 122 strikeouts. His FIP sits at 4.01 as well as a 1.243 WHIP.
But there’s some good in there such as a 9.0 strikeout per 9 innings rate and a decent ground ball rate at 49.7 percent.
September hasn’t been kind to Anderson as his ERA sits at 4.79 for the month so far.
Through 20.2 innings in the month, Anderson has allowed 11 ER with 9 walks and 24 strikeouts.
However, if Ian’s last start is any indication, he may have started to figure some things out as he allowed just one run on two hits through 7 innings of work.
This included just one walk and eight strikeouts through that timeframe as well.
He’s also been pretty effective against the Phillies this year as he holds a 3.09 ERA through 23.1 innings pitched in those four games.
This includes:
- 8 ER
- 7 BB
- 24 K
- 1.114 WHIP
- 9.3 K/9
The lines for those four games are as follows:
- April 4th: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 7 K (ND)
- April 10th: 5.1 IP, 5 H, BB, 4 ER, 6 K (ND)
- May 8th: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, 7 K (ND)
- June 10th: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 4 K (ND)
So there’s a chance Anderson could struggle but he also could go and shut out the Phillies if he’s on his game.
Ian also fairs pretty well when pitching at Truist Park as he is 4-1 at home with a 3.58 ERA with 55 K and a .214 opponents average.
Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson has pitched fairly similarly to Ian Anderson this year with an identical 3.60 ERA.
Gibson started the year with the Rangers and was much better in his time in Texas as his ERA was 2.87 there.
Once coming over to Philly in a trade, his ERA has not been as good with it sitting at 4.87 in 64.2 innings pitched.
His month of September has contributed mostly to that inflated ERA as it sits at 7.16 during that time frame. He’s allowed 3 or more earned runs in each start during the month.
The Braves have not faced Gibson this season but his road stats make you feel good about our chances as he is 3-5 on the road with a 4.29 ERA.
Travis d’Arnaud has seen Gibson the most in his career and is 3-for-11 (.275 avg) against him with 1 RBI, BB, and 2 K.
Why the Braves will win
Ian Anderson has shown his ability to get groundball outs when he needs them. That is important to do against an aggressive team like the Phillies.
Charlie Morton and Max Fried exploited that in the previous two games. They went after batters and had a lot of success in doing so.
However, the Braves offense is why I believe we will win this game. They’ve shown a lot of confidence this past week.
They know that no matter the situation they can bust open a game at any point and have shown the ability to do that as of late.
Austin Riley has been outstanding this season and continues to show his MVP potential and ability to make appropriate adjustments to be successful in big moments.
Jorge Soler has also been an incredible spark for this offense since being moved into the leadoff position.
He is the closest thing to having Ronald Acuña at the top of the lineup as possible. Obviously, Ronald isn’t replaceable but Soler is a similar threat in that he can take you deep at any moment but is also very good at drawing walks when he needs to.
The ability he’s had to get on in front of Freeman, Albies, and Riley has been so important for this offense’s success.
Jorge was batting .229 in KC but since coming to Atlanta he is batting .269 with a .350 OBP and including 12 HR and 31 RBI. He’s also earned 23 walks and struck out just 43 times with an .860 OPS.
This is definitely what you want to see from a guy at the top of your lineup and I expect more of the same tonight.
Why the Phillies will win
The Phillies have nothing to lose at this point so I expect them to play much better and play the way teams do when they’ve got nothing left to lose.
You also cannot expect Bryce Harper, the potential NL MVP, down for very long. He’s bound to get a hit in a big situation very soon.
They have no choice but to win out the rest of the way if they have any shot at the division title and even then that’s not guaranteed for them.
Even with the incredible two months that Bryce Harper has put in for the Phillies, it likely won’t be enough to get them where they want to go. He looked all but defeated in that dugout last night.
This was supposed to be the place he went to win big games, not experience more of what he did in Washington.
Braves vs. Phillies Live Stream
The game can be streamed on the Bally Sports app or MLB.TV as it is the free game of the day (subject to blackout restrictions).
You can also consider trying out a free trial of Fubo TV to catch all the action. Let’s go Braves!