Let’s not add to the drama
I won’t yet go to the level of alarm that Jon Heyman seems to be raising here in this tweet; my thoughts are more along the lines expressed by Steve Adams of MLBTradeRumors.com:
"That a “gap” exists between the two parties effectively goes without saying. (He’d be signed by now without one.)"
Duh. The question we want to know the answer to — and can’t get the information about — is “how big is the gap?”
The obvious starting point is Paul Goldschmidt‘s 5 year deal with St. Louis for $130 million ($26 million per year). This happened in March of 2019.
At that time, Goldy was almost exactly 31½ years old. Tomorrow, Freddie Freeman turns 32 years old. Both are accomplished first basemen.
Goldschmidt has been a 6-time All-Star, owns 3 Gold Gloves, and 4 Silver Sluggers. He was an MVP runner-up twice and had one other Top-10 year.
Freeman has been an All-Star 5 times, the league MVP in 2020 (and top 10 on four other occasions), a Gold Glove winner only once (mostly thanks to Goldschmidt), and 2-time Silver Slugger recipient. He also was a Rookie of the Year runner-up.
Lifetime OPS+: 138 for Freeman, 141 for Goldschmidt. Batting average? Freeman .295 and Goldy .292. They are 4 homers and 22 RBI apart.
At this point, it’s about at close a “comp” as you could ever find. Given Goldschmidt’s slow, but noticeable decline in recent seasons, though, Freeman will likely eclipse him in all of those numbers in the coming years.
The Key Calendar Marks
The dates to watch are these: September 13 and September 27. These are the last two off-days for the Atlanta Braves this year.
Sure… if a contract agreement is reached, any day could be used to make an announcement, but generally speaking, it’s best to do these things when the attention and focus can be wholly on the organization and the player — particularly when we’re talking about dollars in the 9-figure arena.
An announcement this Monday would suggest an amicable agreement… one that both sides are happy about. If it drags to September 27th, that might be a little less so, though ultimately any “agreement” would be good overall.
If we get past that second off-day, though… it is at that point that fans should start freaking out a bit. Unfortunately, that’s not hyperbole.