How to calculate the Atlanta Braves magic number

As we’re about to enter September, “magic numbers” become a common part of the baseball lexicon.  So how does one easily calculate that for our Atlanta Braves.

I admit it:  it seems like every year that I have to look up some site or some method for determining the “magic number” for the Atlanta Braves… eh… at least for this and the past 3 seasons that they’ve been in first place.

First, a public service message for those who might not quite be acquainted with the lingo:  the Magic Number for a first-place team is the total number of their wins and the losses of their nearest rival that are needed for the first-place team to clinch first place.

There are websites dedicated to this mathematical messiness.  In fact, this site, while totally comprehensive, has actually muddied the waters by providing so much information that it requires several minutes of studying just to figure out what you want to know.

Even most sites that try to explain the computation often manage to take the simple and make it relatively complex.

So naturally, we’re gonna throw a hat into the ring and see if we can do a little better, for it’s really not that bad.

Let’s take the real-world example of the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies as the standings were on Monday morning as this was written:

• ATLANTA.  70-59
• PHILADELPHIA.  66-64

STEP 1:   How many games remain?

• ATLANTA:  33
• PHILLY:  32

STEP 2:  What is the best that Philly could possibly do in those games?

32-0… giving them a 98-64 record. We know they won’t be perfect, but that’s not important.

STEP 3:  What do the Braves have to do to beat that?

Win enough to get to 99 wins overall… 29 wins would do it.  Since the Braves still have 33 to play, that’s technically possible.

DONE!  That’s the answer… 29.

You don’t have to fuss around with combining wins and losses of the teams involved… just figure out which team you’re most afraid of, determine their best possible record, and then count how many wins are needed for your team — the Braves, obviously — to beat that.

Every new day after today, you can subtract one from this number for each Braves win or for each Phillies loss.  Or you can just chuck that out and do steps 1 to 3 again, starting from the days’ current records.

Once the magic number reaches zero… you’ve clinched the division.  Or Wild Card.  Or home field advantage.  Or whatever contest you were trying to monitor.  It’s over at that point.

Now that you’re armed with the secret formula, you can feel free to go out and show off at a sports bar, … or spend your time tackling something much harder… like figuring WAR or FIP stats… or the US Tax Code.

You’re welcome.  Thank you for coming to my TED talk today.