Who or what will be the biggest X-factor for the Atlanta Braves in the final month of the season as they try to win the NL East and reach the postseason.
With 36 games left in the 2021 season, the Atlanta Braves currently hold a five-game lead in the NL East over the Philadelphia Phillies.
While the New York Mets are seven games back, it feels like a two-team race the rest of the season as the Mets have the 14th hardest schedule the rest of the way and will likely be without Jacob deGrom.
Speaking of strength of schedules, the Braves have the 17th easiest (hardest) schedule the rest of the way, but the Phillies have the easiest remaining schedule.
That could honestly be the biggest X-factor down the stretch — how often do the Phillies slip up against inferior competition.
And you could always point to health as a key X-factor when trying to win a pennant race, but we’ll try not to be that boring here in picking our X-factor.
What is the Braves X-factor
Again, outside of the obvious things in the schedule and injuries, which are out of the Braves’ control, what player(s) will be the biggest X-factor?
I’m actually going to agree with my colleague Fred Owens who said at the beginning of the year that Ozzie Albies is the one who makes this lineup go.
Whether you put him at the top of the lineup or in the middle, it seems like wherever he hits — when he’s on — this team takes off.
As I wrote the other day, the only player really not going during the offense’s cold streak was Ozzie.
And Ozzie has been known to have some pretty big cold streaks followed by big hot streaks, as evident by this graph.
Ozzie's 15-game rolling wOBA over the years is interesting. Thanks for the graph @logan_sparkman (via @fangraphs). #Braves pic.twitter.com/PNbFoQvnYX
— Jake Mastroianni (@ShortStopBall) August 26, 2021
In August he’s slashing just .222/.290/.422 with a .712 OPS. Over his last seven games, he’s 5-for-31 (.161) with 8 strikeouts to 1 walk.
If you look at his history as an indicator of future success, you could say Ozzie is due for a hot streak.
And if the Braves get that from him over a long stretch in these final 36 games I believe they’ll be just fine.
What Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, and Dansby Swanson are doing is great. And at least for Freeman and Riley, we expect that production from them at this point.
But for this offense to really take off and be one of the best lineups in the league, it all depends on the hot streaks of Ozzie Albies.