Atlanta Braves bullpen angst heading to the finish line

The Atlanta Braves swept the Marlins despite a bullpen collapse in the ninth inning that exposed the weak links in the bullpen.

The most obvious issue last night was how badly the Atlanta Braves mop-up man Josh Tomlin performed.  Entering the game with a nine-run lead, he faced seven batters, recorded two outs, and left two men on base that came in to score when Will Smith gave up a home run.

Tomlin walked off the field with his head down as he should have. I’ll get to Smith in a minute, but my question now is, why is Josh Tomlin still on the active roster? I understand he’s a knowledgeable pitcher and, by all accounts, a great guy; I’d like to talk baseball with him over a beer. However,  I don’t want to see him come into another game from the Braves bullpen.

Tomlin’s getting slack from Atlanta Braves’ leadership that other pitchers haven’t received because he’s a veteran. If the Braves were out of the chase it wouldn’t matter, but they aren’t and it does.

A little history from early in the season. Tomlin started the season with 4 1/3 innings scoreless innings in four games. In his next 16 games, he threw 23 1/3 innings and allowed 16 runs for a 6.17 ERA.

In Sean Newcomb’s first 16 games he threw 14 1/3 innings and allowed eight runs for a 5.02 ERA.

Over Tomlin’s next ten games he threw 12 1/3 innings and gave up nine runs for a 6.57 ERA.

In Sean Newcomb’s first 10 games he threw 11 innings and allowed eight runs for a 6.57 ERA. Not having the benefit of 4 clean innings, Newcomb was sent to Gwinnett.

In eight games this season, Jesse Biddle allowed 10 runs and 10 1/3 innings for an 8.44 ERA.

In Josh Tomlin’s last nine games, he’s thrown 12 2/3 innings, and allowed 14 runs for a 9.95 ERA.

If not for his first four shutout innings, Tomlin would have a 7.53 ERA.

The Atlanta Braves DFA’d Shane Greene after 17 innings and a 6.76 ERA.

Since July 5, Tomlin’s allowed 19 runs in 13 2/3 IP for a 12.51 ERA.

Since going back to Gwinnett, Newcomb’s thrown six innings, and struck out eight without a walk while giving up one run.

Lefty Dylan Lee’s thrown 36 2/3 innings for the Stripers, struck out 36, walked five, and pitched to a 1.72 ERA, 0.764 WHIP and recorded one save.

Lee and Newcomb are still at Gwinnett, and Tomlin is still holding a roster spot a useful pitcher could fill.

Real estate 101

Pitching has a lot in common with real estate; success depends largely on location, and Smith’s location this season hasn’t been consistently good enough to turn swings into outs.

In Smith’s 50 innings for the Atlanta Braves this season, his

• Total WHIFF rate is down from 15.5% to 13.9%,
• Batters out-of-the-zone-chase rate is down from 36.5% in 2019 to 34.8%,
• His era is up from 2.76 to 3.78, FIP up from 3.23 to 3.89 and SIERA up from 2.71 to 3.45

A quick look at the pitch location charts from Baseball Savant tells you all you need to know about why he’s getting hit so hard. In 2019 his slider looked in the zone until it disappeared off the plate and down. When that happened he generated a 42% groundball rate. Those ground balls turned into outs and double plays.   This season the slider isn’t disappearing, his ground ball rate plummeted to 29.4% and the hits turned into line drives.

Smith’s 2019 fastball ran off the plate and away from the bat; this year it sits out over the plate and stays on the bat head.

His inability to locate pitches consistently out of the hitting zone produces some easy-to-see differences in the result. Even though Smith’s fly ball rate stayed the same, more of those fly balls were line drives that turned into hits due to an increased barrel rate and more solid contact.

Season

GB %

FB %

LD %

Solid %

Barrel %

I know it seems more at times, but he’s given up seven homers in 50 innings this year, In 2019 he gave up ten in 65-1/3 innings, playing at a Oracle park with its 88 park factor for home runs. In 2019, SunTrust/Truist Park has a 97 park factor for homers.

That’s a wrap

The Atlanta Braves have an opportunity to make a statement this weekend, They can’t afford to carry dead weight, and Tomlin is dead weight.

I wish the Braves had signed David Robertson after his return from the Olympics, but the Rays got there first. I’ve heard some suggest Touki Toussaint go to the pen. I don’t think he’s the right guy, but he can’t be worse than Tomlin.

The Braves will likely keep running Smith out there to try to get his confidence back, though I doubt the success of that plan. I hope they keep Matzek and Rodriquez back just in case he collapses into a puddle.

On a happier note, it appears Alan was right: the Snakes just swept the Phillies!  [ed. note:  maybe… but I didn’t expect Wheeler to lay the egg today!]