Atlanta Braves at the Quarter Pole: projecting the rest of the season
Later this week, MLB teams will have 1/4th of their season remaining. Here’s a guess as to how the Atlanta Braves and their rivals will finish.
Between April 1st and August 14th, the Atlanta Braves had to endure the doubts and naysayers as their season has truly been a struggle. But the evening of August 15th found them alone in first place for the first time.
But now, can they hold it?
We now have less than 7 weeks remaining until the regular season ends, and the betting here is that it could come down to the last weekend before the NL East — and the second Wild Card position — is decided.
Let’s see how things break down between the Braves, Phillies, Mets, Padres, Reds, and … yes, even the Cardinals.
Let’s start with the easier calls… with one surprise.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
If the Phillies are still in the race (they clearly are for multiple reasons), then we can’t leave out the Cardinals. As of this writing, they are a surprisingly small 4 games back in the race for the last Wild Card position.
That may be as close as they get, though.
Counting last night, St. Louis still has thirteen games remaining with Milwaukee. That helps greatly if you believe they can carve into the Brewers’ 10 game Central Division lead. I don’t subscribe to that newsletter.
The Cards had won 6 straight games (and 8 of 9), but all of these were against Kansas City and Pittsburgh. They are 5 games over .500, but that’s a mirage… and Milwaukee got them last night.
Face it: even with Jack Flaherty back, their pitching is — at best — fragile. The Brewers will eat them for breakfast, lunch, and dinner… probably winning at least 8 of those head-to-head games.
Sorry, Cardinal fans.
NEW YORK METS
Oh, how the mighty have fallen… it’s almost as if you could take the standings from roughly three weeks ago and swap the names “Braves” and “Mets”.
New York had been holding onto first place via smoke and mirrors for months, but the lack of a consistent offense (especially at home) and a renewed spate of injuries to their best players has finally put a dagger to a team in free fall.
Oh, and they are in the midst of 4 consecutive sets of games against the Giants and Dodgers. The results so far? 0-5.
It doesn’t get any better for them, either: they still will have to face the Yankees, Red Sox, and Milwaukee in addition to all of their NL East rivals.
Frankly, while Jacob deGrom has been trying to rest his injured arm with the hope of returning this season, he should consider whether surgery is vital to getting him back on the mound at any point… and get it done now if that’s the case.
His decision to wait things out might only delay both the inevitable and the impractical. His team might not be able to do any better during the rest of 2021 — with or without him.
The Braves will overtake this high-profile team
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Yes. I’m saying it: the San Diego Padres will not make the playoffs. Even now, the Reds are breathing down their necks for that last Wild Card spot.
Their envied pitching depth has evaporated and youngsters have not been able to save them. But that’s only part of their real problem… which has nothing to do with whether Fernando Tatis Jr. can stay on the field.
It’s their schedule. It’s horrid. It makes the Mets’ calendar look like something purchased from a local Hallmark store… and they’re already losing the “easy” games, dropping 6 of their last 7 to Miami, Arizona, and Colorado.
Next on their docket is Philadelphia. Then it’s the Dodgers and Angels.
Afterward, a final visit with Arizona might be a respite, but then things get really ugly to complete the season:
- Houston, Angels at home.
- Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals on the road
- Giants, Braves at home
- Dodgers and Giants (again) on the road
It’s the worst schedule in the majors… and comes at the worst time of the year.
Not only do I expect the Padres to lose their Wild Card ticket, I believe they finish the year below the Reds, Braves, and Phillies. The schedule is that brutal… and the schedules of others are much better.
So the Mets and Padres both miss the playoffs? That news won’t be taken well on either coast. In fact, the Mets new owner is already unhappy:
Steven Cohen on Twitter: “It’s hard to understand how professional hitters can be this unproductive.The best teams have a more disciplined approach.The slugging and OPS numbers don’t lie.” / Twitter
Likewise, the Padres’ ownership isn’t going to be happy either… I can’t wait for the changes that could happen to both of these teams this Winter: it could be a human resources nightmare.
The More Interesting Calls
Let’s get these easy ones out of the way first:
- The Giants and Dodgers will fight for the NL West crown (kinda hope the Giants win that, but it will be close) with the runner-up hosting the NL Wild Card game.
- The Brewers will win the NL Central easily, and they will probably host the NL East winner.
So that leaves three teams competing for the remaining two playoff slots: the Reds, Braves, and Phillies.
CINCINNATI REDS
Once the Reds get through the Cubs (inexplicably losing last night), they will face Miami, Milwaukee, and Miami again.
Cincy currently sits 1.5 games behind the Padres (a deficit that will evaporate like a July ice cube in Death Valley) and 3 games ahead of the Phillies (and a half-game ahead of Atlanta overall).
After that, they are in pretty decent shape with these teams on the schedule:
- Detroit
- Cardinals twice
- Cubs again
- Pittsburgh three times
- The Dodgers
- Washington
- 2 games vs. the White Sox that will probably not matter a bit to Chicago.
That’s pretty easy… which means the Reds have a great chance to earn the right to face the Dodgers or Giants — in California — in a single loser-goes-home game.
It’s not much of a prize… but there’s always a chance when you’re in such a contest, so nobody would turn down the opportunity.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / ATLANTA BRAVES
That leaves the Phils and Braves to fight things out for the NL East crown and the remaining playoff spot.
Let’s compare the schedules of Atlanta and Philly:
- COMMON OPPONENTS
- Miami (both teams see them twice, counting the current Braves’ series)
- San Diego
- Baltimore
- Colorado (Braves see them twice)
- Arizona (Phils see them twice)
- Washington
- Mets
- DIFFERENCES — Philly schedule
- Tampa Bay
- Milwaukee
- Cubs
- Pittsburgh
- DIFFERENCES — Braves schedule
- Giants (twice)
- Dodgers
- Yankees (2 games)
On paper, Philadelphia has the advantage. Among the different opponents, the Braves are going to face a well-motivated opponent with each and every series, while Philly might have trouble with only the Rays and Brewers.
Still, the Phillies’ pitching isn’t quite up to the level that Atlanta has been producing in recent weeks, so that advantage falls to the Braves.
That was underscored as Huascar Ynoa threw last night as if he hadn’t missed a beat after losing his fight with a bench. Certainly, pitching depth is on the Braves’ side as Ian Anderson will return to action soon, too.
In addition, there are these factors:
- Rhys Hoskins is hurt. Word is that he’ll be back shortly, but the Phillies have to hope that it isn’t too soon… a reinjury could be devastating to their chances.
- Their offense isn’t holding up well: 17th team OPS in the majors (Atlanta is 7th).
- About their pitching? 12th worst ERA in the majors over the past 30 days. Atlanta sits third best on that list.
So while the Phillies should be able to take advantage of their schedule, there’s a real question about whether they will actually do so.
It will be important for the Braves to continue to win the most winnable games since they will face some serious competition against the West Coast leaders and the resurgent Yankees.
As a result, the betting here is that the division won’t be decided until the last week of the season — and the head-to-head matchup between these two clubs will matter in the end.
Best for the team?. dark. Next
The betting is also that the Braves will prevail — and take the division. Final margin? 2-to-3 games clear of the Phillies.