Atlanta Braves lineup divide hurts but they remain in the race

Atlanta Braves stats in context.

What a horrible satire it is to say that figures won’t lie. They are the greatest liars in the modern world.- Halifax Morning Chronicle November 20, 1869

Since the start of the season, anyone who questioned the Atlanta Braves’ ability to score runs or the effectiveness of the lineup was told to look at the run differential and where the team’s lineup stood compared to the league. Game statistics below from the Braves’ schedule page on Baseball-Reference.

The Braves run differential after 101 games is +45 with 482 scored, and 437 allowed; a positive ratio is great, right? Well, maybe, maybe not; everything requires context.

• The Braves scored 46.5% of their runs (224) in 22 games (21.8%) while allowing 105 runs (24%) for a +119 run differential and an 18-4 record.
• In the remaining 79 games, the Braves scored 258 runs and allowed 332 for a run differential of –79 while posting a 32-47 record.

How’s that positive run differential look now?

Lackadaisical late innings

Late-inning-lightning trademarked the Atlanta Braves lineup over the last three seasons. If the Braves weren’t well and truly shut down after six innings, they would fight tooth and nail over the last three and win more often than not.  The 2021 lineup lacks that ability.

The Braves trailed:

• To start the 7th inning 37 times, ended it tied five times, but never ended it ahead.
• To start the 8th inning 33 times, ended it tied twice, and ended it with a lead once.
• To start the 9th inning 35 times, ended it tied three times, but never ended it ahead.

The Braves have won two of eleven extra-inning games.

While we’ve seen the occasional flash of late-inning fight spirit, only five players – Riley, Acuna Jr., newly acquired Pederson, Freeman, and Albies – have an OPS over .760 in the final third of the game.

Almonte (.745) and Heredia (.716) are the only other players with an OPS over Arcia’s .690 in 15 PA.

Atlanta Braves: A Lineup in two parts

The position that the Braves’ lineup as a whole has good numbers when compared to the league holds; since June 1, it sits in the middle of the NL. Looking at it as two distinct parts paints a different picture. I used Fangraphs’ splits leaderboard to look at the lineup top to bottom, from 1-4 and 5-8.

The lineup top-to-bottom ranks ninth and is dead league average at 100 wRC+, but it’s clear that stat line is supporting the bottom half of the lineup.  Every team does this to some extent, but the 13th rank for spots 5 – 8 shows a genuine weakness in the roster,

The differences are more pronounced when looking at the last third of the game.

The whole lineup drops a couple of spots to 11th, and the top four batters slip to fifth, but the 5 to 8 spots in the order rank 14th, ahead of only the Marlins.

The roster was built like this.

Team’s win divisions because their role players pick up the slack when the stars struggle; the Atlanta Braves paid lip service to role players.

The team projected unrealistic seasons on players without the track record to support it. Even after signing Ozuna, it was clear the lineup was a bat short, but from the day Spring Training started, it was clear they weren’t going to add one.

When a team waits that late to fill a critical need, they are rarely successful, The remaining roster spots went to the least bad pitchers in camp and bench players who added no threat when they popped out of the dugout in the late innings.

The Atlanta Braves were lucky that Heredia and Almonte exceeded expectations, but as well as they’ve played, neither player is capable of carrying a team for a week or two. I respect what they’ve done for us, and Heredia deserves a spot on the bench, but neither player should start as often as they do.

Speaking of the bench, our unofficial team mascot, Pablo Sandoval, must go. Panda hugs are cute, but since May 26, he’s batting .034/.200/.034/.234.  Our pitchers hit better, and Panda doesn’t play the field, and there’s no DH, so the bench is a player short.

That’s a wrap

Any changes the Atlanta Braves make in the next couple of days are unlikely to move the needle towards a World Series. Winning the division remains possible because the other teams continue to trip over their shoelaces, but that could change quickly.

Fixing the bottom of the lineup midseason is unlikely, but an outfielder and a replacement for Panda – Travis Demeritte perhaps – isn’t impossible. I expect the team will add a reliever or two; we know the GM has Baltimore on speed dial, and they have a couple.

Whatever happens, you get our reactions here on The Take.