As new names start to pop up as possible trade candidates, we look at Max Kepler as a potential fit for the Atlanta Braves moving forward.
The Atlanta Braves enter by far their biggest week of the season with 5 games against the NL East-leading New York Mets with the 2021 trade deadline to follow.
It’s now or never to decide what the direction of this team will be for the rest of the season.
But that doesn’t mean every move they make before the deadline has to be strictly focused on 2021. We’ve already seen that when they traded for Joc Pederson who has some control for 2022.
It would be wise if they continue to target players who have multiple years of control, but of course, those players also come with a bigger price.
One name I hadn’t heard a lot of leading up to the trade deadline is Max Kepler.
Sam did mention him here last week as a potential candidate.
With the Minnesota Twins now in certain sell mode, it seems like everyone is trying to pluck away some of their intriguing talents.
There have been talks about Josh Donaldson — no, that’s not happening Braves fans — as well as Michael Pineda and possibly even Byron Buxton.
The Twins could be facing a potential tear down and rebuild, which would be unfortunate for them, but could benefit the Braves.
Jon Morosi was the first I saw mention Kepler as a potential trade candidate.
Sources: #Twins have had preliminary trade conversations on Max Kepler. The #Yankees are one possible fit, given their shortage of left-handed hitting, as @john_jastremski mentioned to me last night. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 26, 2021
He fits the mold as someone who is under team control for a while and is inexpensive. Kepler is set to make just $6.75 million in 2022 and $8.5 million in 2023 with a $10 million team option for 2024.
Other positives on Kepler are that he’s just 28 years old, can play center field, is left-handed, has a low K% (around 20 percent), hits lots of home runs, has an above-average career wRC+, is consistently a positive WAR player, and is consistently a solid .760 OPS player.
The only real downside is that he doesn’t hit for a high average and his OBP numbers are really low.
When he does connect it’s hard with a 37.4 percent hard-hit rate, which is 17th best among all outfielders with over 200 plate appearances this year. And Baseball Savant ranks his hard-hit rate in the 81st percentile.
But despite the low K%, he does swing-and-miss a good bit.
Still, the metrics suggest he should hit for a much higher average. I honestly haven’t watched him enough to figure out why that’s not the case.
He does pull the ball a fair amount and is likely hurt by the shift, but so are most lefty power hitters.
Kepler hasn’t played left field in the big leagues, but that’s probably where he lands once Ronald Acuna Jr. is back.
But for the rest of this year, he could be serviceable in center, but he’s really better defensively in a corner.
For me, he’s somebody who could replace Marcell Ozuna — assuming his playing days in Atlanta are over.
You could have an outfield of Kepler, Cristian Pache, and Acuna for the next couple of seasons.
What would it cost the Braves?
The problem here is that the Twins would essentially be selling low on Kepler who is not having a great season, but yet they’d still want a significant price to give him up.
It would probably cost the Braves either Pache or Drew Waters as the headliner with a pitching prospect or two.
I don’t know if Kepler is the piece you use your last bit of good trade capital on as he doesn’t really put this team over the top — in 2021 or beyond.
I’m not a huge believer in Waters, so I’d trade him and Kyle Wright to get that deal done, but I can understand why the Braves wouldn’t.
If the Braves could deal for him without giving up Pache, Waters, Shea Langeliers, or Michael Harris then it makes a lot of sense.
But again, I think one of those four would have to be a headliner in a deal for Kepler. If that’s the case, I’d pick Waters.
What are your thoughts on Kepler as a potential trade candidate for the Braves? Who would you be willing to give up for him? Let us know in the comments below.