Five Reasons Atlanta Braves Will Still Win NL East in 2021

Despite a 45-47 record, here are five reasons why the Atlanta Braves will still win the 2021 NL East title.

Baseball-Reference says the Atlanta Braves currently have a 21% chance of making the postseason and just a 1.4% chance of winning the World Series.

Before we dive into the reasons why the Atlanta Braves can still win this division, let’s take a quick recap as to why they are where they are at the moment.

Injury Bug Bites Braves

The injury bug has not just bitten the Braves this season. It has launched a coordinated attack with all hands on deck from the injury bug colony. The targets? Some of the Braves’ biggest names. Players such as Mike Soroka and Ronald Acuna Jr. are out for the rest of the season.

Catcher Travis d’Arnaud has not played a game since May 1 when he was injured attempting to make a play at the plate.

Then there was that whole Marcell Ozuna thing. Marcell Ozuna had a gnarly finger injury and followed that up by getting arrested for allegedly strangling his wife and beating her with his cast. He has denied the accuracy of the police reports.

The Braves are missing three massive bats from last season’s lineup. They have (for the most part) been replaced with journeymen like Kevan Smith, Jonathan Lucroy, Guillermo Heredia, and Abraham Almonte.

The Bullpen

The bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the NL at 4.64. They have been attributed with 11 wins (last in the NL) and 22 losses (second to last in NL).

The Braves have the seventh-worst success rate in all of baseball, blowing 44% of their save opportunities this season.

Opposing hitters are batting .253 off the Atlanta Braves bullpen this season. That is good (or bad) for 26th worst in all of Major League Baseball.

Alex Anthoupolous brought back Shane Greene and he has given up 13 runs in 12 innings.

A.J. Minter blew his sixth save of the season in Sunday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. He was optioned to AAA following the game. Minter has accounted for 40% of the Braves’ blown saves this season.

Freddie Freeman

Before we move forward to the five reasons the Braves will still win the NL East in 2021, I want to get the topic of Freddie Freeman out of the way. Freddie is the heart and soul of this team and appears to not only have corrected his early struggles but he is on his way to potentially making another MVP case.

Winning the NL East will take more than just Freddie Freeman’s production. Here are five reasons the Braves will still win the NL East in 2021…other than Freddie Freeman.

5. Impact Players to be Added in August

The Atlanta Braves needed help on offense prior to Acuna’s injury on July 10. The lineup had a conspicuous drop-off after the first three hitters. Players like Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson have done what they could, but the hole created by the losses of Ozuna and d’Arnaud was turned into a crater when Acuna went down.

Even before Acuna’s injury, the Braves were still only 11th in the league in total runs scored and 15th in team batting average.

The Braves need a boost in order to compete. They still have the core bats in place to have a top-notch offense. For that to come to fruition, they need that supporting cast. Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies cannot carry this offense on their own.

Following Acuna’s injury, speculation began to increase that the Braves would be seller’s at the trade deadline as all hope was seemingly lost.

Alex Anthopoulos let the world know that the Braves were buyers when he completed a deal for Cubs OF Joc Pederson, just days after Acuna’s injury.

Anthopoulos followed that move up by bringing in former All-Star catcher, Stephen Vogt from the Arizona Diamondbacks to add some stability to an unstable catching situation. Vogt and Kevan Smith should hold things down until the return of Travis d’Arnaud.

Impact Bat: Travis d’Arnaud

Travis d’Arnaud was a huge piece of the 2020 run-scoring machine. He found himself entrenched as the cleanup hitter on one of the best offenses in baseball.

Last season, d’Arnaud hit .321 with a .919 OPS. Last year was shortened due to COVID and TDA only played in 44 games. The previous year he played in 92 games with the Tampa Bay Rays, one game with the Dodgers, and 10 games with the New York Mets.

Between the two seasons, d’Arnaud has posted the following stats:

147 Games, 516 ABs, 71 R, 24 2B, 25 HR, 103 RBI, 48 BB, 135 SO, .273/.336/.465.

To get that sort of production from any position, let alone a catcher, would be a huge boost to the offense.

Impact Arm: Huascar Ynoa

Not only is d’Arnaud working toward an August return, but Huascar Ynoa appears to be heading in the right direction.

Ynoa was having a surprising breakout season as a starting pitcher. The 23-year-old owns a 3.02 ERA with a 4-2 record on the season. He is sitting on 50 strikeouts in 44.2 innings pitched with a 1.05 WHIP.

Getting both of these guys back for the last month or two of the season will make a massive impact on top of any additional trades that Anthopoulos pulls off.

4. Progression to the Mean

While the bullpen has underperformed compared to the standards that were set the past couple of years, it has only been 92 games. Some players are putting up unusual statistics that could correct themselves by the end of the season.

As an example, look at Freddie Freeman’s early struggles and how – as most of us expected – his numbers look more and more like his numbers every day.

Chris Martin’s 3.97 ERA is a little high for what we’ve come to expect from the reliever over the past few seasons. Between 2019-2020, Martin posted a 2.81 ERA and walked just eight batters in 73.2 innings pitched.

Martin has been limited by injuries this season and has only seen 22.2 innings of action. While he has walked just four batters on the season, that is a higher number than what we are used to seeing from the right-hander.

Since 2018, Martin has walked exactly 1.0 batter per nine innings. His current rate of 1.6 is the highest it has been since his first couple of stints in the major leagues back in 2014-2015.

Martin had proven himself as one of the elite control relievers in the game over the past few seasons and should be a rock for this bullpen moving forward.

Shane Greene has only pitched in 14 games this season. Yes, it’s pretty much all been disastrous, but that’s not who he is. It’s tough to come in mid-way through the season and be in mid-season form. Greene needs some time to get his “spring training” out of the way and find his groove.

Last season he was one of the filthiest pitchers in the game. At the end of the season, these early numbers won’t be what matters for Greene. The impact he is capable of having on the stretch run could be a difference-maker for the Braves.

After a stellar 2020, A.J. Minter has been a huge part of the problem for the Braves. There’s a chance he gets it together and gets another shot, but after blowing two of the three leads in the past series with the Rays, the Braves optioned him to Gwinnett.

The bullpen has led to the team leading the league in losses after holding a lead in the sixth inning.

Luke Jackson – who is in the middle of a career year – should pair with Chris Martin to serve as the primary setup guys moving forward.

As previously mentioned, the relief core has been credited with 22 of the team’s 47 losses.

When you look at the talent, you have to assume this thing is going to move in the right direction.

Will Smith has been very good this season, especially when the backend of the bullpen can bridge the gap and put him in a save situation.

The lefty has a 3.58 ERA with a phenomenal 49 strikeouts in just 37.2 innings with a 1.09 WHIP. Smith is 18-20 in save situations this season.

We are already seeing starting pitchers like Max Fried and Drew Smyly make moves toward their expected numbers. Dansby is hitting the ball better and some of our struggling players are heading in the right direction.

3. Mediocrity in the East

If I had told you at the beginning of the season that the Braves would be two games under .500 after 92 games, you would have said, “nuh-uh.”

Then if I told you they would still be in the hunt for the division title, you would have said “liar!”

Then if I told you they would win the division title and do it without Acuna, you would have said “But in that hypothetical scenario, it sounds like they would only have a 21% chance of even making the postseason, let alone winning the NL East.”

Good call.

Here is how the division stands as of 8:59 a.m. as I drink my coffee on July 20, 2021.

1. NY Mets (49-42)
   The Mets are said to be looking to make a big splash in the trade market to help them maintain their hold on first place in the NL East. They were recently linked to Kris Bryant and Jose Berrios trade rumors.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (47-45)
   The Phillies have received solid offensive contributions across the board with SS Jean Segura hitting .315 with a .810 OPS. They have five players with an OPS+ over 100. Bryce Harper leads the way with a sky-high 146. Zack Wheeler has planted his flag as the ace of the staff with a 2.44 ERA through 19 starts. The bullpen continues to be a source of frustration as they lead the league with 23 blown saves. They have blown 51% of their save opportunities. They might be a good fit for Craig Kimbrel.
3. Atlanta Braves (45-47) That’s us. The whole rest of this article (and website, for that matter) is about this team. Go Braves.
4. Washington Nationals (44-49)
   The Nationals went 19-9 in June to put the Nationals back in the mix in the NL East. They started the month seven games back and finished just two games shy of the first-place Mets. Unfortunately for the Nationals,  July has not gone so well. They find themselves six games out and aren’t getting much starting pitching outside of Max Scherzer.
5. Miami Marlins (40-54)
   After making the postseason last year, things aren’t going the Marlins way in 2021. They are said to be sellers with Starling Marte being a highly-coveted trade target. Once he goes, the Marlins can fold up shop like a butterfly leaf in a bamboo table.

The Braves certainly need a few things to fall right for them moving forward but I believe their lineups stand up to the Phillies and the Mets.

2. Keep Busting Out

The Atlanta Braves started the season with Acuna, Ozuna, and Freddie Freeman as the biggest bats in the lineup. Only one of those players remains in the lineup. This means guys that would ideally be hitting in the back-half of the lineup now find themselves in crucial positions.

The team is in dire need of them to step up. While it isn’t expected that they fill the shoes of the departed, the team needed them to step up to the plate.

Atlanta Braves Breakout: Ozzie Albies

Ever since Ozuna’s arrest, Ozzie Albies has transformed into one of the best number three hitters in the game.

Ozzie is on pace for career highs in doubles, triples, homers, steals, and is currently just 23 RBI short of his career-high 86 in 2019.

Atlanta Braves Breakout: Austin Riley

Austin Riley is in the midst of a career year. This is a fun statistic: Of his career 1.4 rWAR, 2.1 of it has come this year. 

Riley is currently hitting .279 – which is higher than any realistic expectations anyone had for him prior to the season. I heard a lot “I’d be happy if he hit .250.”

Prior to 2021, Riley had worked just 32 walks in 503 plate appearances and had a career .288 OBP.

This season, he has 37 walks (five more than his career total entering the season) in just 368 plate appearances with a magnificent .361 OBP.

His patience and hitting for average has not come at the expense of his power as he has racked up 31 extra-base hits on the season. He has 15 doubles, one triple, and 15 homers. His .473 slugging percentage is higher than he’s had in any other season.

Atlanta Braves Breakout: Dansby Swanson

Calling Dansby a breakout so far is a real stretch. He is catching fire and has the potential to reach career highs in several categories. The Braves are going to need him to stay hot if they want that fourth-straight NL East crown.

Dansby Swanson’s triple-slash line may not be the most impressive at .238/.295/.451, he has 39 extra-base hits. Dansby struggled out of the gate, hitting .189 after the first month of the season.

Since July 4, Dansby has been on a tear, slashing .326/.383/.674 with nine of his 14 hits going for extra bases, including three homers.

Swanson is currently one homer shy of his single-season high. He is on pace to blow by his career-high of 17. Dansby is on track for 29 homers this season.