Atlanta Braves draft day three: looking for hidden gems
The Atlanta Braves’ third session of the 2021 MLB Draft is largely an exercise in looking for players with upside who haven’t had a chance to play a lot, and for older players who might blossom under professional coaching.
Day three selections went a lot faster than day 2, with the Atlanta Braves grabbed a pair of pitchers before moving to their first position player. If you missed the first selection, you can read about Ryan Cusick here. You can catch up on selections from day two here.
Oh Canada!
I suggested that the Canadian connection might nudge the front office head north for a late-round selection in my pre-draft post. I chose the right country and position but the wrong pitcher.
The Atlanta Braves first pick on day three was a 6′-6, 205-pound, left-handed pitcher out of St. Benedict Catholic School in Ontario, ranked number 371 by Baseball America, Adam Shoemaker.
Shoemaker spent the Canadian winter in a COVID-19 lockdown, throwing his 87-89 mph fastball and waiting for a break. Baseball America reported the break happened in late April when Shoemaker escaped the wintery north and came to Long Island, where he worked out with the guy I thought the Braves would take (he didn’t make it that far), Calvin Ziegler.
At the combine, his fastball jumped to the low 90s, touching 95 regularly, thanks to improved mechanics. His secondary pitches need work; his slider just spins and begs to get hit most of the time, but his changeup is progressing nicely.
It’s not surprising that Shoemaker’s pitches need work; he’s been pitching for less than three years. It’s also not a surprise that the Atlanta Braves took the soon-to-turn 19-year-old pitcher. It’s hard to turn down a low-mileage, high-velocity arm attached to a 6′-6 frame.
If the Soroka experience is anything to go by, Shoemaker has the potential to turn into an eleventh-round steal. There are videos of Shoemaker online, but they reflect a pitcher 20 pounds lighter and an inch shorter. I didn’t think they told us anything, so I didn’t include them.
Fighting Illini draft pick
The Atlanta Braves ventured to my home state for their next selection; 6’-5, 210-pound, right-handed pitcher Andrew Hoffman, out of Illinois University ranked number 473 by Baseball America.
Hoffman was the best right-handed pitcher on the Illinois staff. According to Sportsbank, he was named the outstanding pitcher of the Illinois fall ball season and entered 2021 and the Big Ten’s number five prospect.
His coach Dan Hartleb told Sportsbank to ignore his won/lost record. Hoffman pitched against the best teams and kept the Illini in every game.
. . .look at the quality starts and the opportunities he’s given us to stay in, and I think he’s going to be a good pitcher for years to come and I think he’s going to be a good draft choice
Baseball America says Hoffman was “Illinois’ best arm” and has projectability for “expectation might be for more physicality or for better stuff .”
His Baseball-Reference page shows that his transfer to the Big Ten conference and better coaching significantly improved his performance. He finished the 2021 season with a 2.87 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/0 K-rate.
D1 Baseball ranked Hoffman as the number 14 Big Ten prospect in the draft.
Related Story. Yesterday. . .. light
Let’s play catch.
After nabbing two pitchers, the Atlanta Braves turned their attention to a 6’-3, 230-pound catcher out of St John Fisher College (NY), Adam Zebrowski.
In his three years at St John’s, Zebrowski batted .466/.558/.932/1.489. In 187 PA this season, he batted .500/.594/.993/1.587, including 13 doubles and 20 homers, striking out 13 times and walking 26. His 20-jacks and 70 RBI led all Division III schools.
His BBR page shows a pretty good season in the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League as well.
Although he was almost a year younger than the average league player, Zebrowski batted .360/.450/.820/.1.270, including five doubles and six homers, in 60 PA over 16 games.
I watched the video above and another one from the 2020 season to check out his movement behind the plate, and for a big man, he’s pretty quick. He played a few games at first base as well if the need to move him comes up.
An Ozzie-sized shortstop
Caleb Durbin is a 5’-8, 175-pound shortstop out of Washington College in St Louis, Missouri. The Schools’ website notes that Durbin earned D3 Baseball’s Central Region Rookie of the Year award and was named UAA Rookie of the Year in 2019.
In three seasons with the Bears, Durbin batted .386/.477/.608/1.085, smacked 33 doubles, nine triples, and ten homers, walking 42 times while striking out only 10.
The video below is from batting practice for the 2020 South Florida Collegiate Baseball League All-Star Game.
There’s no real scouting data for Durbin; his eye for the strike zone appears his best tool. His hit tool may well improve in a professional setting.
Outfield assistance
Looking for strength up the middle, the Atlanta Braves selected Christian Robinson, a 6’-2, 211-pound, outfielder (center fielder), and psychology major out of Stanford. His Stanford web page notes – and BBR confirms – that Robinson led the team by batting .318/.398/.500/.898 with 12 doubles and eight home runs and stole eight bases in eight attempts.
He enjoys the big moments in a game, batting .407 (22-54) with runners in scoring position. He drove in four runs and scored twice in the opening game of the Super Regionals at Texas Tech on June 11 and drove in two runs while going 3 for 5 when Stanford beat Arizona at the College World Series on June 21.
His numbers weren’t as gaudy in the wooden bat leagues, but he continued to hit .250 and slug .414.
The video is from a June 2020 practice at Stanford. Robinson has a good arm and looks like the guy you’d put in center field if you didn’t know who the center fielder was (hey, It makes sense to me).
Robinson knows the strike zone and puts the bat on the ball. He looks like a useful player with some upside.
Undersized lefty
The Atlanta chose another off-the-books player when they selected Kris Anglin, a 5’-11, 175-pound, left-handed pitcher out of Howard College in Texas.
Howard has a reputation for preparing baseball players to move to a four-year school and succeed. According to the Big Spring Herald, that’s exactly why Anglin came to Texas when Covid-19 shutdown baseball at Cal State Bakersfield.
The paper describes Anglin as a long-haired California Kid, and the high-school video of one of his games confirms long blonde locks. The Herald referred to him as a flame thrower, but the video –which was over a year earlier – showed an 88-90 mph fastball. He’s 25 pounds heavier now and an inch taller.
He caught my eye when he started dropping in a 12/6 hook that had batters looking confused. Admittedly they were high school batters, but he was able to spin the breaker with regularity.
When the Western Junior College Athletic Conference All-Conference team was announced on May 30, 2021, Anglin was on it. He was also named Most Valuable Pitcher for the WJCAC.
two Hawks were named to the 2021 All-Region V Baseball Team, including pitcher Kris Anglin, who led the league in strikeouts (103).
Want to play catch –2
Tyler Tolve is a 6’-2, 180-pound catcher out of Kennesaw State. In three years for the Owls, Tolve batted .313/.393/.444/.838 with 15 doubles, six triples, and eight homers.
Despite popping only eight homers for the Owls, Tolve’s showed prowess with a wooden bat. Playing for the Lima Locos in the Great Lakes Summer League during 2019, he batted .320/.430/.479/.909, hit eight doubles, two triples, and five homers in 169 AB. (Calculated from Pointstreak data.)
Baseball America ranked Tolve the number 49 prospect in Georgia entering the draft.
He grew up a Yankee fan. I guess we can forgive that if he has a sterling career as a member of the Atlanta Braves.
Big arm – reliever?
The Atlanta Braves returned to the college ranks when they selected 6’-3, 198-pound righty Austin Smith out of Arizona. If you search for Austin Smith on the web, make sure you get the one who spent three seasons at Southwestern University before transferring to Arizona for the 2021 season, not Cedar Park, Texas’ own Austin Brian Smith.
In his three years at Southwestern, Smith threw 134 2/3 innings, striking out 179 batters and pitching to a 3.41 ERA. At that time, Kendall Rogers at D1 Baseball (subscription required) called him the most intriguing arm he saw in Texas College ball with a fastball that sat 93-97 and a mid-70s breaking ball.
When Smith transferred to Arizona in 2020, Tucson.com quoted Roger’s scouting report.
“Smith has a huge arm and didn’t seem to use a ton of effort the day I saw him. However, he could greatly benefit from improved secondary stuff, and that should come under the direction of either Oklahoma’s Skip Johnson or Arizona pitching coach Nate Yeskie.”
Arizona used Smith from the bullpen until April but limited his starts to three innings or less; in effect, he was a reliever all year. He finished 2021 with a 5.14 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 25 IP, including a seven strikeout game when he threw 3 2/3 innings.
The chaos of 2020 hurt Smith’s transition to Arizona and, no doubt, his final numbers. The pitcher that Rogers saw in 2019, a third or fourth starter ceiling, may still emerge. Worst case, his high-velocity fastball becomes a weapon at the end of a game.
Sweet Home Alabama
The Atlanta Braves returned to the southeast and selected 6’-2, 218-pound, righty Samuel Strickland out of Samford University with their penultimate pick.
Baseball America ranked Strickland at number 402 entering the draft. Their scouting report loves his huge K/BB rate second-best mark of all Division I arms in 2020. It goes on to say his fastball had more zip this spring, touching 95 at times, but his secondaries are fringy, making him a low ceiling, back of the rotation, or bullpen arm.,
Another Outfielder
The Atlanta Braves final selection of the draft was Ty Evans, a 6’2-195-pound, right-hand hitting outfielder, out of Lakeland Christian School (FL), BA’s number 188 prospect nationwide.
Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50
Evans scouting says he has power and speed, hit well against advanced pitching, and will improve significantly as he matures.
Evans is plenty strong with above-average raw power now and a chance to get to plus power in the future as he continues to grow and add more muscle . . . some scouts giving him a chance to stick in the middle of the outfield because of his running ability and others thinking he will outgrow the position and slow down a tick. . . . A team that signs Evans out of his Florida commitment is either heavily convicted in his pure hitting ability or thinks he has a chance to stick in center
He’s a draft and hope player, unlikely to sign when selected this low, and will probably honor his commitment to Florida.
That’s a wrap
The Atlanta Braves took five more pitchers today, splitting the draft evenly between pitching and position players. High school players in this group may well choose to forego signing and head to college or a JuCo to raise their stock.
There are a couple of interesting arms in today’s selection; Anglin looks like a sleeper if he signs, while we’ll know pretty quickly what Smith and Hoffman are. I’m also intrigued by both catchers.
I had a lovely dream. dark. Next
Once bonuses and signings begin, we’ll let you know here at The Take.