Atlanta Braves draft options and short Q and A with Kiley McDaniel
The Atlanta Braves have the 24th pick in Sunday’s Rule 4 draft, and as usual, no one can say with certainty who gets the nod.
I had the opportunity to ask ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel a couple of questions about the Atlanta Braves‘ possible choices and how they view the draft under GM Alex Anthopoulos.
The 2021 draft lacks a consensus, unquestioned, number one prospect. We’ve heard the names Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker nonstop for months, but neither player pitcher comes in at number one on any of the big three lists.
McDaniel has shortstop Jordan Lawler at the top of his list (subscription required), and former Tomahawk Take writer and current Baseball America draft guru Carlo Collazo agrees (subscription required). MLB Pipeline has Lawler third and another shortstop Marcelo Mayer as their number one.
Depending on who you talk to, there are six to eight prospects who could go at number one overall, and another three or four who might go there if the Pirates decide to go under-slot and spread their money around. None of those players will make it to the Atlanta Braves at number 24.
After those prospects, the field flattens out quite a bit. If, for example, a team likes a hitter at number fourteen, they probably like three other hitters equally well and will choose based on makeup and cost.
Parity perfectly describes prospects ranked between 15 and 40. In that group, the choice is less about taking the best available player on skills and more about how the player fills the team’s farm system, how far the team feels it is from contending, and if all else is equal, which player will sign for less money.
With those caveats, here’s my part of the discussion with Kiley McDaniel.
When in doubt, take a pitcher.
I’ve been writing pre-draft posts here for eight years and always remind readers that the Braves philosophy since the draft began hasn’t changed; unless the position player is clearly superior, take the pitcher and trade for everything else.
Someone asked McDaniel why so many mock drafts have the Atlanta Braves taking pitchers. I have to condense his answer, so I’ll paraphrase.
McDaniel believes the Atlanta Braves prefer a pitcher, not necessarily because he’s a pitcher, but because, like most teams, they see college pitchers as a safe demographic. He went on to explain why.
In every draft, there are points where the quality of players available flattens out. After that, teams must select someone but don’t feel great about anyone. They view high school pitchers as extremely risky and when all of the good college position players are gone, teams decide to make a safe signing; the college pitcher.
When that decision becomes universal, college pitchers move up in the draft for no reason except GMs feel safe signing them. This is particularly true this year when there aren’t many consensus college bats alongside groups of college arms with a similar ceiling. The pitchers get divided into groups, and everyone sticks their hand in a metaphorical bucket and pulls out a name.
The 2021 landscape
The Atlanta Braves select 24th — long after the decision point happens. In this year’s draft, two college pitchers set themselves apart; Rocker and Leiter. The next college arms come at number 11 or 12; then comes the unspoken decision. From the the12th pick through number 25, there are six or seven college pitchers who fit anywhere in that range; (alphabetically) Will Bednar, Bubba Chandler, Gunner Hoglund, Ty Madden, Michale McGreevy, Jordan Wicks, and Gavin Williams.
For those reasons, McDaniel feels the Atlanta Braves will take a pitcher if one falls to them, and at least one should. Alternatively, the Braves may negotiate with a pitcher from the second tier who would normally earn selection in the middle of the second round to sign under slot at 24, allowing the club to go over-slot in a later round.
All that talk we hear from the draft room after a selection is an effort to make the player feel that the team really wanted him more than anyone else. The team did want him or another guy just like him because they had to select someone, and the college arm is safe.
See? It isn’t all metrics and brilliant baseball minds coming together; gut feelings and hunches are involved. Comforting, isn’t it?
Rumored names
Jake wrote about the mock drafts two weeks ago, indicating that RHP/SS Bubba Chandler (HS Bogart, Ga.) was Jonathan Mayo’s prediction, while CBS suggested another two-way player Spencer Schwellenbach (SS/closer), and at McDaniel’s mock at that time had the Braves taking Will Bednar.
(Note: I’ve edited the questions and replies for grammar, clarity, and length. I added everything in parenthesis you’ll see in my questions and McDaniel’s reply. Any bold-faced type is also my emphasis.)
OWENS: I’ve heard that the Braves sort of want Will Bednar. I doubt he makes it to us at 24. If that’s the case if we don’t get Bednar or Gavin Williams, would they go for a lefty like Mikulkis? Or a bat, like shortstops Trey Sweeney or Carson Williams?
Kiley McDaniel: I agree that I think Bednar is, if not the top of their list, definitely a guy they’re hoping gets there (and) that he’s probably not going to get there. I think the Braves are . . . his floor [i.e. as low as Bednar falls in the draft].
If he gets there, they’re definitely taking him. They may even try to entice him to get down there. Although it’s tough to move college guys around the board, especially ones that as well-known as he is. (Moving around the board means convincing them to sign for by offering an overpay.)
I would say Michael McGreevy RHP (ESPN 36, MLB 28, BA 16) out of UC Santa Barbara is of interest to them. I went to see him this spring. (The Braves) had three high-level scouts there, which is maybe too many for one game. Maybe (someone) got rained out somewhere (and the extra scouts had nowhere else to go) you never know.
If (McGreevy drops to 24) the Braves will grab him, even over Bednar in the unlikely event both are still undrafted. Ky Bush (ESPN 55, MLB 67, BA 46), a lefty out of Saint Mary’s, is another guy that probably doesn’t get to their second pick. So they may go way under slot with him at the first pick and then hopefully set something up later.
(In Kiley’s final Mock posted the Friday after the chat (subscription required), he has the Braves selecting McGreevy at 24 and Ky Bush at 59.)
Spencer Schwellenbach (ESPN 46, MLB 54, BA 52, SS/RHP out of Nebraska, is another two-way guy who is open to pitching or hitting. I think (the Braves) prefer him as a pitcher.
White and Sweeney
KD: I would say, Lonnie White Jr., (Malvern Pa. ESPN 32, MLB 72, BA 32) Prep a high school centerfielder that’s committed to play wide receiver at Penn State, in Pennsylvania, is a candidate to be one of the guys they overpay at that second pick if they go under at the first one.
(White originally committed to Clemson for baseball, but he switched his commitment in May 2020 to Penn State to play both baseball and wide receiver for the football team. I don’t see the Braves risking money on a player who may decide football is king, as Oakland did last year, losing the money twice.)
OWENS: I like what I see in Trey Sweeney (ESPN 27, BA and MLB number 55), out of Eastern Illinois. Is there a chance he goes higher than like second round in this situation? He doesn’t look that much different from some of the shortstops that you’re talking about.
He batted .382/.522/.712 with 14 homers in 48 games, walking 46 times with just 24 strikeouts this season, and while Eastern Illinois isn’t a big school, and his mechanics need work, hitters will hit. He’s the same size as Corey Seager; why shouldn’t he figure it out?
KD: . . .Sweeney (or) Connor Norby (East Carolina 2B, ESPN 32, MLB 58, BA 44), a contact-based college infielder are of interest (to Atlanta) . . .(who) seem to like college middle infielders . . . (after taking) (Braden) Shewmake and Beau Philip and Langeliers . . . I think (drafting up the middle is) their model, their approach, and the things they value tend to move those guys up.
Sweeney’s ceiling
KD: I think (Sweeney), Norby, and Wright State second baseman Tyler Black (ESPN 16, MLB 58, BA 82), are three guys who, if you put them on the Cape (Cape Cod wooden bat league) for a month, would go 15 picks higher.
I think (all three of the infielders I mentioned) might be better than Matt McLain (SS – UCLA, ESPN 15, MLB 12, BA 10), and there’s a real shot he doesn’t get to number 24. McLain’s in play at 19 and 20 with Toronto and the Yankees, also 21 with the Cubs.
I would say the odds that (McClain) goes in one of those three picks is like maybe 50/50. If he gets past that . . . he probably goes in the late 20s, early 30s. I would say Sweeney is probably likely to go in the top 40, for many of the same reasons you’re mentioned . . .(Sweeney’s) a left-hand hitting, 6’3″, 6’4″, shortstop with bonkers numbers even if it’s only Eastern Illinois.
(His) leg kick might be a little too high. Who knows if he’s really faced good competition. . . But at some point (he has) a chance to (become) a 6’4″ everyday shortstop, . . . why shouldn’t he really go in that different of a range?
Related Story. Late round options. light
McDaniel also suggested first baseman Jacob Walsh and outfielder Ryan Gilbert as potential Atlanta Braves targets in later rounds, and Gilbert as a kate overpay from round seven onward if the club saved a lot of money earlier.
Atlanta Braves and a local prospect
McDaniel fielded a question about two-way (SS/P) prospect Bubba Chandler (ESPN 23, MLB 21, BA 20) out of Oconee High School in Bogart, Georgia, committed to Clemson as a quarterback.
KD: I get the impression in that first 30 picks, he’s probably signable (Something) like two-thirds to one-third teams preferring him as a pitcher. I’ve been told he’s open to both. I know (the Braves) scouted him and partly just because he’s close. Some of the heavy hitters have been in multiple times to see him. I think they prefer him as only a pitcher.
If he’s there at 24, there’s a real shot they take him. But by no means would I say it’s a slam dunk, either that he gets there or that they take him if he gets there. . . They’re talking about it this week. I would say maybe a 10 percent chance he ends up actually being the pick, but it’s not zero.
(In Fridays Mock, Kiley has Chandler going to the Reds at 17.)
One of the benefits of sitting in on these chats is listening to what writers for other teams are thinking.
I don’t want to pitch.
Carson Williams (ESPN 38, MLB 41, BA42) could turn into this year’s Austin Riley. Williams is a two-way player out of Torrey Pines High School in San Diego. As a pitcher, he throws a plus slider and a low-mid nineties fastball. However, like Riley, Williams made it perfectly clear to all scouts that he wants to play every day. Wiliams has light-tower power and has hit well with the game on the line.
Best-case the Braves draft him as a SS, have him pitch now and then, and he continues to hit using wooden bats against professional pitching. Worst case, his bat vanishes, and he becomes a backend starter or reliever. The Atlanta Braves did it for Riley; why not Williams?
Happy hunting grounds?
The Atlanta Braves snagged Bryce Ball from Dallas Baptist; maybe they’ll make a late-round return to select Dominic Hamel (ESPN 76, MLB 96, BA 153) and his 60-rated fastball and solid control.
Mike Soroka came to the Atlanta Braves’ attention because Chris Reitsma coached him. Perhaps the former Blue Jays in the front office head north to select Calvin Ziegler (ESPN 101, MLB 123. BA 272). The 18-year-old righty from Kitchener, Ontario, has a three-pitch mix led by a fastball sitting 95-97 this spring. His secondary’s include a consistent 12/6 breaker that flashes plus, and a mid 80’s change will develop with increased use.
Perhaps they want a pitcher who sees eye-to-eye with Kyle Muller and select 18-year-old, 6’-6″, 220 pound Jacob Steinmetz (ESPN N/A), MLB 121, BA 181 with two 60-rated pitches, fastball and curve.
Former colleague Ben Chase suggested that the Braves will take junior college players in the later rounds. If that’s the case, we might see the Braves take a flyer on Logan Henderson (ESPN N/A, MLB 234, BA107); the video at his link is interesting.
That’s a wrap
I said at the beginning that once you leave the first eight players, rankings vary; in some cases wildly, which means Atlanta Braves’ choice comes down to their view of the system’s need at that position and the player’s makeup.
Once the 20 rounds are over, the Atlanta Braves could go hunting $20K bargains like lefty reliever Ben Harris (ESPN N/A, MLB N/A, BA 362) out of Georgia. Like all young pitchers, he has control issues, but he has “elite-spin” on the heater that created a 15.4 K/9 strikeout rate in relief for the Bulldogs.
High school bats?. dark. Next
The draft looks like a choice among equals, particularly from the third round on. Whoever the Braves choose, we’ll introduce you to them and let you know what we think here at the Take.