What do the Atlanta Braves need to fix… and how?

The Braves and the cold, hard numbers

STARTING PITCHING

• 8TH (4.1)

This is now arguably the strength of the Braves overall. In fact, things have continued to improve in this category over the past 5-to-6 weeks, so if there’s anything that can be ignored for improvements, this is probably it.

RELIEF PITCHING

• 12TH (-0.6)

Okay, this is the number I understand the least. I was expecting something ranking in the 20’s. Regardless, we should recognize that the bullpen has certainly lost a lot of games that the team should have won, and proceed accordingly.

CATCHER

• 29TH (-2.1)

This is the worst score on the board. If you were wondering why Atlanta optioned William Contreras back to AAA, this is why. The addition of Jonathon Lucroy represents a bandaid on an arterial wound, but it’s probably the only available option now until Travis d’Arnaud returns… and that will only help for… 6 weeks at the most?

But we’ll take anything we can get right now.

FIRST BASE

• 9TH (0.2)

This, of course, speaks to the extent of Freddie Freeman‘s Spring slump. In recent weeks, though, he’s turned that around, so we’re good here.

SECOND BASE

• 8TH (0.9)

Pretty much the same thing here, except that Ozzie Albies has been doing a little better overall than Freeman for a little longer. Clearly, Albies has been pulling his weight… and more.

THIRD BASE

• 10th (0.7)

We had all hoped that Austin Riley would break out this season, but after an ugly start, it didn’t seem possible. Since then, though, something has definitely “clicked” and while streakiness is still involved, he’s really turning into a heck of a player — and one that probably should have gotten some additional All-Star support.

SHORT STOP

• 25TH (-0.9)

Here’s the first tough one. Dansby Swanson just isn’t getting it done. He’s still flying around the field like he knows exactly where to be for any fielding or backup fielding play, but it’s his work at the plate (.228 with a .706 OPS) that’s holding back his team.

If you think there’s a change to be had here, then Swanson actually would be an upgrade off the bench, but the trouble is this: can you find a shortstop that would improve over Swanson’s offensive production?

Before you shout “Trevor Story!!”, consider this: Story’s road games put him worse — much worse — than Swanson this year: .179 batting average and a .637 OPS…. about 250 points under his Coors Field numbers. Ouch.

OUTFIELD

I’ll lump these three positions together, but it’s pretty clear that one of them isn’t like the others:

• LF 28TH (-1.4)
• CF 28TH (-1.0)
• RF 1ST (1.7)

In 2021, the Atlanta Braves have run six different players out to left field at one time or another. For center field, the number is 5.

As of today, the Orlando Arcia Experiment has begun in left field, and the Guillermo Heredia Experience is hanging on in center.

As much as we do have to give Heredia some props for his work in center, the Braves do lose a bit defensively while his hitting (.154 in July) may be starting to fade toward his career norms (roughly .250 with little-to-no-power).

BENCH

• 22ND (-0.7)

The bench production is still hanging at the 22nd mark simply because of the early-season successes of both Pablo Sandoval and Ehire Adrianza. Since then… it’s been brutal.

So how bad are the Braves now… and what should be the plan?

You can’t replace four positions on the field with impact players at the trade deadline. It’s very difficult to even find one.

So here are the positions of obvious need, with ranks 25th or worse… not counting that bullpen number:

• Catcher
• Shortstop
• Left field
• Center field
• Bullpen

The bullpen part can be solved: relievers are obtainable in the Summer. We’ve discussed numerous possible options over the last couple of weeks.

Dansby Swanson, for his struggles this year, actually would be hard to replace. Travis d’Arnaud should be back at some point, and he’s clearly the best catching option available right now… getting impact catchers at this point in the year is almost impossible.

That leaves the outfield…

There are two possible paths that Atlanta could take here at the trade deadline:

• Recognize that there is true talent on the roster and attempt to honor it by going ‘all in’, both for now and the future
• Sell a few targeted assets to add value to the farm system that can be used this Winter to rebuild the club.

The trouble with option 1 is that targeted trade partners would need to cooperate with that plan. The trouble with option 2 is that the only assets worth really trading right now are Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, and Travis d’Arnaud (who isn’t game-ready yet) and maybe a couple of relief pitchers.

The rest of the roster needs to be retained (yes, this assumes Freddie Freeman is a “keeper”) for future considerations.

So here’s a plan for the “All in” path…

• Pursue Mitch Haniger and reliever Paul Sewald from Seattle. They are flush with MLB-ready outfielders and need young pitching. Offer Bryse Wilson or Kyle Wright and Toukki Toussaint to start with.
• Pursue Joey Gallo and Ian Kennedy from Texas. They need everything, but let’s start negotiations with Drew Waters or William Contreras and one of Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, and Huascar Ynoa.

That might be an overpay in both cases, but if you’re going “All In” and want to ensure that you get the right pieces, then that’s necessary. You have to make sure that no other team gets these players… otherwise, you might be forced into the second (losing) path.

Every player proposed — except Kennedy — would be under team control through 2022, so this would be a deal for helping both now and next season. It would be somewhat painful to the farm system, but right now, those assets are mostly being used only for emergencies… and you have to give up something to get good players back.

The Braves are truly in a precarious position of their own making.  Whether that’s due to the financial fallout from 2020 or injuries or performance or sticky stuff or just a bad combination of things isn’t entirely relevant:  it’s still a mess. One way or another, something drastic has to be done. Doing nothing helps nothing.

It’s pretty clear that teams are waiting until just after the All-Star break before getting into “dealing mode”. Hopefully, the Braves are ready to get that going themselves.