Will HOF voters vote for Atlanta Braves‘ Freddie Freeman? Time will tell.
We would be naïve if we did not realize that humans are doing the voting, and not an algorithm of stats that make the votes. That being said, we need to look at some other factors that some voters look at.
Bill James wrote a book called The Politics of Glory. In this book, he points out a few things that voters look at. The black ink test, the gray ink test, Hall of Fame career standards test, and the Hall of Fame monitor.
Again, this factors in the human element more so than true output. This should be looked at on deciding if we think humans will vote Freddie in. We have to be honest here and realize that the truth is that humans look at these type of tests, whether they should or not.
The black ink test is based on how when a player leads a league in a stat, it is notated with bold black (like on baseball cards). There is a scoring that goes along with it.
For hitters
· A player gets 4 points for leading the league in HRs, RBIs, or batting average
· 3 points are awarded for leading the league in Runs scored, Hits, or Slugging Percentage
· 2 points for leading in doubles, walks, or stolen bases
· 1 point for games played, at bats, or triples
It is important to note that this method penalizes more recent players since they play against 15 teams in their league versus 8 that the older players did. That being said, the average Hall of Fame 1st baseman has a black ink score of 27. Freeman currently sits at just 12. It is hard to see him reaching the average.
The grey ink score is the same scoring platform, but factors in top 10 finishes rather than leading the league. Same caveats as black ink as well. Freddie, being the king of consistency that he is, is much more on track with this metric with a 120 when the average Hall of Famer is at 144.
If you take out his first season since he only played 20 games, Freddie is averaging 12 grey ink points per year. At his current pace, he would get to about 228 points if he plays 20 seasons. Even if he regresses, which he will, he should meet the 144 average if he stays healthy. Again, this is even with more recent players having that earlier mentioned disadvantage of playing against more teams.
The next metric is the Hall of Fame monitor. Baseball Reference says it best when they say this metric, like the others, is an attempt to assess how likely a player is to make the Hall, not how deserving. It is important to realize these are different. In this particular metric, 100 means a player is most likely to make it, whereas 130 is a virtually guaranteed. It is important to note that former Atlanta Braves’ Fred Mcgriff has an exact 100 here and the highest vote count he got was 39.8 percent vote.
The metrics for hitters works like this:
· 2.5 points for each season with a batting average over .300
· 5 points for over .350,
· 15 points for over .400 (although that’s highly unlikely)
· 5 points for each season with than 200+ Hits (Freddie missed this by only 8 Hits in 2018)
· 3 points for each season with 100 RBI or Runs.
· 10 points for 50 HRs in a season
· 4 points for 40 HRs
· 2 points for 30 HR
· 2 points for 45 doubles
· 1 point for 35 doubles
· 8 points for winning MVP
· 3 points for each All-Star selection
· 1 point for Rookie of the Year
· 1 point for Gold Gloves
· 1 point for a World Series Win
· 6 points for leading the league in batting average
· 4 points for leading the league in HR or RBI
· 3 points for leading in runs
· 2 points for leading in hits or stolen bases
· 1 point for leading in doubles or triples
· 50 points for 3500 career Hits
· 40 points for 3000 hits
· 15 points for 2500 hits
· 4 points for 2000
· 30 points for 600 career HRs
· 20 points for 500
· 10 points for 400
· 3 points for 300.
· 24 points for lifetime batting average of .330
· 16 points for .315
· 8 points for .300
So far Freddie has accumulated 58 points. Freddie is currently right on pace to reach the 100 mark with a pace of 100.18. The great thing going in his favor is that he does not have any career milestone points factored in yet.
These metrics are far from perfect. They attempt to predict how likely a player, like Freddie Freeman are to be voted in, not show their true value
You may also notice that defense is not factored in too much. 1st base is the easiest position defensively, so it’s not like it would help Freddie that much.
Other than the black ink test, it appears Freddie is slowly building a Hall of Fame case for himself if he can keep up the current pace, even with a little room for regression. He will need to stay healthy and not slow up too much, but there is absolutely a chance he could make it.