Evaluating the Atlanta Braves Current Outfield Options
Braves Option 1: Guillermo Heredia
Guillermo Heredia started as a bright spot for this team. Look at his first two months in the Braves lineup:
- April: .300/.429/.575
- May: .282/.317/.436
That is pretty solid! It is definitely more than most would have expected of Heredia who most fans probably had not heard of before this season. It was certainly welcome considering the early season injuries to Pache and Inciarte that forced Heredia into action.
However, look at his numbers so far in June
- .133/.212/.167
That is not so good. Heredia has hit a wall and while it could just be a slump, his career numbers suggest he was playing over his head those first two months.
Overall, Heredia is currently hitting .248/.333/.413 with two home runs, eighteen runs, twelve RBIs, .322 wOBA and a 103 wRC+. Before the season, people would have thrilled if Pache was providing these numbers at the plate.
However, those numbers are coming down as we see from his production in June. The magic wand may be running out and he is coming back to the career .240/.318/.350, .295 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ hitter.
On the base paths, Heredia has been valuable posting a 1.2 UBR. For comparison, Acuña currently sits at 1.8 UBR.
Defensively, Heredia has not been great. In 254.1 innings, he has a -1 DRS in center field which is a downgrade from what most think they would get from Pache. In 22 innings in left, Heredia sits at a 0 DRS, so while he is better there in a small sample, he still is not providing much value on the defensive side of the ball.
Overall, baseball reference has him as a 0.2 WAR player and FanGraphs gives him a 0.4 fWAR. Which is really about what one can expect from Heredia.
We should be thankful for the few weeks he gave us where he played out of his mind, but it looks like the time may be running out for Heredia.
Braves Option 2: Ehire Adrianza
Ehire Adrianza, along with Pablo Sandoval, both provided tremendous value off the bench for the Atlanta Braves early in the season. There is no telling where the Braves would be without either player.
Adrianza was arguably one of the few bright spots on the team during the first few weeks off the bench, but thanks to the aforementioned circumstances, and his versatility, Adrianza has been asked to play a more regular role in left field.
His overall numbers: .224/.295/.378 with three home runs, fourteen runs, seventeen RBIs, .292 wOBA, and an 83 wRC+. Not exactly great numbers.
Breaking it down by month:
- April: .257/.293/.543 2 HR, 7 R, 8 RBIs
- May: .205/.262/.308 1 HR, 6 R, 9 RBIs
- June: .208/.345/.250 0 HR, 1 R, 0 RBIs
A more regular role has exposed Adrianza somewhat. He was better served in as the super utility bench option.
His -0.1 UBR on the bases show he is not providing any value there either.
Defensively, it is apparent that outfield is not Adrianza’s natural position. In 67 innings in right field, he has a -1 DRS and in 43.2 innings in left field, he has a -1 DRS.
He has played two innings in CF due to an in-game injury and currently has a 0 DRS there, but that is not significant, and it does not appear Adrianza will play CF unless it is an emergency.
Adrianza is a middle infielder naturally, so it is understandable that he is not the best in the outfield.
Overall, baseball reference has him at a -0.3 WAR and FanGraphs gives him a -0.2 fWAR.
Adrianza has given the Braves some big moments at the plate off the bench this season that we should be thankful for, but more regular playing time has not been kind to Adrianza. A move to the bench would be best, unfortunately, the Braves cannot afford that at the moment, and he will need to play semi-regularly.
Braves Option 3: Ender Inciarte
It ended up being a blessing in disguise that the Braves did not move on from Ender Inciarte in the offseason.
He has never been a great hitter, but he has created a nice career based on his above average defense which would have paired well as a late inning defensive replacement for Ozuna.
Starting with his season stats at the plate, Inciarte is hitting .235/.286/.314 one home run, seven runs, six RBIs, one stolen base, .266 wOBA, and a 66 wRC+.
As mentioned, he is not known for his bat. It is not his calling card.
Breaking it down by month:
- April: .294/.368/.353 three runs, zero RBIs
- May: .176/.222/.176 two runs, three RBIs, one stolen base
- June: .235/.263/.412 one home run, two runs, three RBIs
He was serviceable at the plate in April before an injury sidelined him for a month. Since returning, he has not really provided a ton of value.
Moving onto base running, Inciarte is providing a negative value on the bases. He currently has a -0.2 UBR. He has historically been a positive value on the bases, so there is hope he can turn it around with more game action.
Defensively, Inciarte has been solid. In 116.1 innings in center field, he currently has a 2 DRS. Nothing spectacular, but he is providing defensive value which makes it easier to keep his bat in the lineup.
Overall, Baseball Reference has Inciarte as a 0 WAR player and FanGraphs has him at 0.1 fWAR.
At this point in his career, he is probably best served as a fourth outfielder on a good team who can come in as a defensive replacement late in games. The Braves will need to rely on him somewhat regularly over the next few weeks, however.
Braves Option 4: Abraham Almonte
Abraham Almonte just recently had his contract selected by the Braves and has only been with the for thirteen games.
He has been pretty solid for those thirteen games, he is currently hitting .258/.439/.452 with one home run, five runs, two RBIs, .396 wOBA, and a 151 wRC+.
In Gwinnett this year, he was hitting .403/.554/.613 with three home runs, sixteen runs, nineteen RBIs, three steals, .512 wOBA, and a 219 wRC+.
Given the circumstances the Braves were facing, they had to give Almonte a shot at the big-league club based on how he was playing in Gwinnett.
For his career, he is a .238/.303/.372 .295 wOBA, 83 wRC+ hitter. Meaning, he probably will not maintain the 151 wRC+ he currently has through forty-one plate appearances.
He does not necessarily need to be an elite hitter, just find a way to be serviceable for a few weeks. If he provides similar production to what Heredia gave the Braves that first month, that would be a blessing.
Historically for his career, Almonte has been slightly above average on the bases. In a small sample, he sits at a 0 UBR in 2021 for the Braves.
In 2021, he currently sits at a -2 DRS in 73 innings in left field. He also has played 5 innings in right field (0 DRS).
Throughout his career, he has been a serviceable outfielder.
Career OF numbers:
- Left Field: 505.2 innings- -2 DRS
- Center Field: 1298.1 innings- 6 DRS
- Right Field: 601 innings- 4 DRS
Interesting to note that he had a 7 DRS season in center field in 2014 and a 5 DRS in right field during the 2016 season.
If we treat those years as outliers, he has been an average outfielder for his career. If he can be average defensively and just not hurt the Braves in the field, then it increases his value for the team currently.
Overall, in a small sample, Baseball Reference gives him a 0.2 WAR and FanGraphs gives him a 0.3 fWAR.
The Braves will probably want to ride the hot hand in Almonte while they can. If he can keep this up for a few weeks, he will be extremely beneficial to the Braves lineup.
What should the Braves do?
The Braves do not really have a great option with the four guys they currently have. They have to piece it together until a better solution internally (Pache or Waters) presents itself or until trade season comes around.
Hopefully, Almonte can swing a magic wand for a few weeks and lengthen the lineup. Playing Almonte next to Heredia/Inciarte and Acuña is not ideal but is probably one of the better options the Braves have at the moment.
There is also another option to consider. Moving Austin Riley to left field if another third base option presents itself.
If Orlando Arcia can be serviceable at third base, then moving Riley to left could benefit the Braves for this season.
For his career, Riley has been better defensively in left field than at third. His career 1 DRS in left field is a lot better than his -10 DRS at third for his career. He probably would not win a gold glove in left, but he could provide the Braves with a longer lineup with this versatility.
It would also open up the possibility of the Braves looking at third base options along with outfielders at the deadline. That is, if the Braves find themselves in a position to be buyers.
Before anyone says this would be a bad move for Riley, being versatile and playing multiple positions should not be discouraged. Kris Bryant is having an MVP season and has played significant innings at five different positions.
Riley can always move back to third as needed, but moving him to the outfield should at least be considered.
The Braves are going to have to figure out their outfield situation though if they are going to make a serious run this year. Whether that means Waters or Pache steps up, Riley moves to the outfield in the short run, or they acquire a solid bat at the deadline.
Next. Emerging Trade Target. dark
A move is going to be needed. Hopefully, the four guys currently being used to fill the holes can provide the offense with quality innings in the meanwhile while the Braves figure it out.