2. The AAV conundrum.
You might be thinking “Look — Freeman is getting $22 million this year. Bumping him to $25 million is only a $3 million raise… the Atlanta Braves should be able to afford that.”
Assuming that the $25 million figure is the right number (I don’t think so; read on about that), there’s still an issue beyond whether a particular salary is ‘affordable’.
For luxury tax purposes, the Atlanta Braves and all other teams use a contract’s Average Annual Value (AAV) when determining whether a payroll has exceeded the taxing provisions in the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Right now, Freeman’s AAV is actually $16.875 million. So a new contract would bump that number by at least $10 million (between salary and benefits). Whether Atlanta can “afford” that or not isn’t as relevant as whether they can continue to build their future rosters while staying clear of the luxury tax thresholds… which they were bumping up against in 2019.
3. That Collective Bargaining Agreement
Yeah – that expires in another 7 months, and who knows what kinds of changes might be involved… or what kind of labor issues will the two sides choose to balk at this time around?
One might anticipate some additional headroom for that luxury tax threshold, but the real battle is probably going to be over this idea of how to pay players in their prime years when they are actually generating that prime production.
At this time, the arbitration system artificially generates upward “steps” for players during these years that suppress the salaries at a time when many are already hitting and pitching at elite levels.
So any changes here, and teams will suddenly be forced to boost their payrolls earlier — possibly to the detriment or older, established stars.
That’s all speculation… but it’s also relevant, as the Braves might need to “read the room” as time goes on to guess what changes might happen that could impact the rest of their roster.