We have been spoiled in recent years by seeing the Atlanta Braves run off with the NL East. That may not happen this year.
To be sure: the Atlanta Braves should still win their division… but if recent trends are any indication, then it could be a dogfight to the end.
The questions that should come up quickly in response to that are these:
- Why is this happening?
- What is Alex Anthopoulos going to do about it?
Let’s take on that first one: How did we get into this situation? There are a couple of key reasons.
Over the past couple of seasons, we have seen the Braves spend significant sums of money to address certain, obvious needs. Among them:
-
- Josh Donaldson‘s $23 million contract for 2019
- Mark Melancon‘s deal, picked up at $14 million annually
- Additional single-year contracts for Marcell Ozuna ($18m) and Cole Hamels ($18m)
- Travis d’Arnaud: $16 million for 2020 and 2021
- Additional bullpen pacts (Greene, Martin, Will Smith, etc.)
Yes: some of these have worked out well. Others did not, but those that worked actually exceeded expectations to a large degree.
So despite the financial bind that the Braves and many other clubs found themselves in after 2020, the Front Office still made their gambit into the free agent market last off-season… though it came with a bit of a twist:
- Charlie Morton ($15 million)
- Drew Smyly ($11 million)
- Marcell Ozuna (backloaded $65 million over 4 years, plus option)
Here’s the difference: the Braves chose to bolster the starting rotation (important, given the near disaster that came last year with so few useful starters) and allowed the bullpen to more-or-less find its own way with the pieces still remaining that were already under team control.
You can debate separately the efficacy of this action (i.e., whether buying Smyly was the right move), but that explains the reasoning behind it.
In general, the philosophy of emphasizing starters over relievers this is acceptable if your starters can go deeper into games and not tax the bullpen so much. It also tends to set you up better for post-season play.
The results so far? Eh… perhaps not quite as hoped: Atlanta’s starters have 105 innings pitched — right at 5 innings per start.
Let’s check and see just how well that ranks…